The BJP likes to see the B.S. Yediyurappa problem like it has done the Narendra Damodardas Modi problem: as a local problem of a local leader. But in the era of 24×7 television and with national parties like the BJP and Congress becoming franchise operations, how you deal with a local problem can have far-reaching national impact.
Editorial in the Economic & Political Weekly (EPW):
“The massive loot of iron ore in Karnataka under the BJP government has been known for some time. The role of the “Reddy brothers” of Bellary, both prominent BJP leaders and state ministers, in the affair has also been well known. Until now Yediyurappa and the BJP government had been seen to be unable to stop these two barons of Bellary because of their money power and patronage of the saffron party.
“What the report of the Lok Ayukta and retired Supreme Court judge, Santosh Hegde, has done is to provide strong proof of the direct involvement of Yediyurappa and his family in the illegal mining and export of iron ore. The report has also exposed the entire BJP government in Karnataka as corrupt.
“The two will only further degrade the attempts by the BJP to position itself as a credible alternative to the Congress at the Centre. But given the large number of corruption cases the UPA itself is involved in, the Congress cannot be relieved at the BJP’s discomfiture.
“What the report has really done is to destroy the credibility of the principal opposition party with regard to corruption. This may cost it dearly in 2014….
“While both the BJP and the Congress share a consensus on the broad contours of economic policy, there is one significant difference in the way they deal with the popular anger and opposition to the growth obsession. The BJP tries to deflect this anger by deploying religion in public spaces and communal divisions within communities; the Congress seems to primarily rest its political strategy on throwing sops and making some concessions to popular demands.
“The latter appears preferable only because the former is so dangerous to social life. The real alternative to such corruption and loot cutting across political parties is for the emergence of an alternative politics and a different set of policies. That, unfortunately, does not appear to be a real possibility in the present times.”
Read the full editorial: Karnataka’s landmine
churumuri 
The author assumes that Congress is not communal.
Who is supporting the Sachar Report?
Who is proposing to bring in “Communal Violence Bill”?
Are these not for electoral gains thru communal politics?
Hundreds (or even thousands) of instances can be shown where Congress is outright communal.
In pre-independence days, Britishers used to beat Congress using the word “communal”. Now, the British legacy has been taken over by Congress and they are using the same “communal” stick to beat its opposition!
As far as mining is concerned, everybody knows that mining is going on in Bellary for decades. Reddy brothers entered mining after 2000.
Try to remember who were Ghorpade’s? And what was their primary business?
In Lokayukta’s initial report, even S.M.Krishna was named. So, where were Reddy brothers at that time?
Either the author doesn’t know the complete history or he wants to distort the history.
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Utter B*S*.
Remember that it was the Congress which opened the gates of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya when the Bofors issue was threatening the Congress government.
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Nothing amusing about it. Congress and BJP are two sides of the same coin. Both are on the same side of the fence in many issues viz India-US relations, Pro-Israel, Globalisation etc. The only plus point of Congress is that it appears more secular and less communal than BJP.
With both Congress and BJP are tainted by corruption charges the stage is now set for the dawn of the third front. The leftists and regional parties like DMK, SP, TDP would have to work amicably to materialise the emergence of Third Front.
Let us hope for the best.
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Kumar
Stop spreading rumours. SM K’s name was NOT there in the Lokayukta report.
***
Congress is poised to make signficant gains in next year’s assembly elections in Punjab, Utttar Pradesh,
This is the beginning of the end of BJP – the unravelling of the BJP from a national party to a sub regional party
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Response to two earlier comments-
1) Backing Sachar report is communal politics. Sachar recommendations may be on identity line and that is not a permanent solution. Reservation policy, 33% reservation for women etc are identity politics. They are not long term solutions. But if any one say that is Communal, it shows whose mind is communal.
2) SM Krishna is involved in almost all corruptions. SM Krishna, when CM had two men on left hand side and Right hand side. DK Shivkumar and RV Devaraj Chamarajpet. (And RV Devaraj was the direct link to Underworld (infact when Underworld don Narashima Murthy alias Poone alias Pukkala Poone was murdered it sent shock waves and media has reported about SM Krshna Link. Please search and read online). During SM Krishna’s rule, online Lottery was given free go and Congress Leader Moni Kumar Subba’s Links with SM Krishna and other Congress leaders is well known. It was said that Devaraj was running DanceBars in Bangalore and unconfirmed reports indicates SM Krishna having partnerships in many of Devaraj’s and DK Shivkumar’ s Business. When Maharashtra Govt passed bill to ban Dance bar, SM Krishna as Governor rejected it saying that is against freedom of expression. And we al lknow what was going on inside Dance Bars– Dance or Aatta… When SM Krishna was Chief Minister, he introduced that Beer and other mild liquors may be sold in all retail shops in Bangalore, but later had to withdraw due to public pressure. This was to directly help Vijay Mallya who was sponsoring Congress and Krishna and there are other links between them. Vijay Mallya is the head of business empire which is thousands of crores of rupees in debt. If Govt collect the due from Vijay Mallya, there is not need to increase Petroleum price. When SM Krishna was CM, he constituted an extra-constitutional body called Bangalore Task Force and they were given free hand to spend public money for private corporates. SM Krishna’s son In law is a venture Capitalist and financing Software companies. He even initiated MindTree. He built a coffee day chain, during SM Krishna’s regime and later when Krishna wanted to escape from controversy, it was this Son in law who paid his Five star Hotel Bills. Krishna alloted 100s of acres of land free to leading Software companees and his son in law’s business was an indirect beneficiary of all these- including Bangalore Agenda Task Force and undue favours to private companies.
What is the fundamenal difference between what Reddys doing and what Krishna did? Nothing. It is same. Though Lokayukta said Yeddy’s son’s trust receiving benefit is crime, I dont think any court can punish him. (However, I agree that is corruption.) There are many loop holes in our law and SM Krishna cleverly utilized these loop holes. But he first alloted land to prominent journalists and they ensured a good image is built about SM Krishna. (If what SM Krishna did was right then) the mistake Yeddy and Reddys did was not to cultivate media first before looting. Reddys and Kattas may have done crime which is punishable in the eyes of law. But how is the court going to prove the donation received by a totally different legal entity is meant for Yeddyurappa? It is very difficult. This was the same tactics employed by SM Krishna earlier. The old timers didnt know the art of making big money. That is why Jaffer Shariff’s sone was caught red-hand while accepting 25,000 rupees from an auto-rickshaw driver. Poor guy, he didnt study in USA management institutes to learn how to make crores while having a pro-business image and a cynosure of middle-class.
What happened to Nandi Corridor during SM Krishna’s regime? Every one knows that, who looted how much. Luckily for SM Krishna, there were judges like Dinakaran during those times
and there was no Santosh Hedge at that time.
—————-
Coming to the point of BJP dreaming..
I have earlier posted a blog here to show why BJP and Congress can not come to power in 2014 elections – Please see my earlier comments (I dont want to repeatedly post the link as it is not nice. )
Today Hindu newspaper has published Yogendra Yadav’s survey, which clearly shows that the over-all popularity rate of BJP leaders is less than a double digit figure. This has only one message. BJP wil disintegrate after next Loksabha election and become a party with regional presence.(It will not disappear. Please see my link in my earlier comments). Though Yogendra Yadav-Hindu survey say that overall popularity of Congress leaders is more or less same, there is an important question. When large section of masses (voters) are going away from BJP, and if Congress’ strength is not increasing, where are all these peple going? The answer is Third-Parties.
(Please read my blog and I will update that blog later with latest information.) In short what I want to say is that, there will be hung parliament and BJP and Congress cant form govt with alliance partners. BJP can not find partners but congress can find partners who can not get numbers. As India can not have President rule, Congress and BJP will split and regional satraps will come out of these parties. And there will be some kind of lose arrangement at center after 2014.
If you browse online you can find many BJP sympathisers dreaming aof Narendra Modi becoing Prime Minister. When are our BJP friends going to learn the basics of politics? BJP has practically no presence in many of India’s largest states. No regional parties would take a suicidal decision to support a Bhasmasura. ChandraBabu naidu, Mamata and others have already learnt their lessons. There is a remote possibility of BJP’s Modi becoming India’s Prime Minister– But that is not Narendra Modi but Bihars Sushil Kumar Modi. He being the leader from one of the largest state and having a Christian wife may help him to get both communal votes and non-communal votes. But according to me, Nitish Kumar will never allow BJP to grow in Bihar. However we dont know what may happen in coalition politics. But there is no question of Narendra Modi ever becoming Indian PM and BJP can never come to power in 2014 election unless the third party leadership do big blunders.
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Interesting isn’t it how the EPW has made stuff up without referring to a single section of the Lok Ayukta’s report? All that has been found about BSY is the issue of a single license to the Reddy brothers. The NMDC – a public sector mining company – has already rubbished Santosh Hegde’s allegations. And why drag in Narendra Modi into this? He is our best CM by far, and as his constituents put it simply, “Narendra Modi is the only true leader. The rest are looters.” Under Modi’s leadership Gujarat has clocked the best development growth of any state in India, with its double digit agricultural growth rate putting everyone else in the shade (EPW’s editor would be better off reading a report by his own journal on Gujarat’s New Green Revolution.
The BSYtamasha has been orchestrated by the Congress and its tools in the media to take the heat off itself for looting the country. Watch out, BSY will take this in his stride and return the BJP to a thumping majority the next election in Karnataka. BSY and BJP have for the first time in Karnataka provided an alternative to the anti-national feudal Congress and the family business of the mini-DMK of the Deve Gowda clan. With the Reddy brothers’ money power sidelined, and a Vokkaliga CMa supported by a Lingayat in the Vidhana Soudha, the Congress’s prospects in Karnataka are wrecked beyond repair.
Guys like Azeez Luthfulla should not expect India’s foreign policy to mirror partisan interests but the one true national interest.
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My thoughts exactly.
If the only difference of ‘party with a difference’ is in doing Hindu communalism as versus the muslim communalism of Congress then there is no real alternatives right now.
We’ll indeed have to wait for new politics to emerge.
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There can be no clean alternative when even fighting an election requires boatloads of money. Once they spend so much, the only way to earn it back is through corruption. But if you are spending so much money to get in, it is obviously only to make more money.
No one can go in with a clean image and reform things. See what happened to the IAS officers who stood up against the oil mafia etc?
There is too much at stake in each election for people to tolerate fair elections.
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EPW is a communist paper — what else do you expect them to write ?
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@ Shemej.
why are so bent upon trashing the image of SM Krishna by highlighting only the negative of his regimes. Yes, SMK benefited either directly or indirectly, but so did most of the Bangaloreans, Kannadigas and Indians as a whole.
IT has been in India since the 70s mostly in Mumbai-Pune area. Then why did the spike in growth begin in 2000 and in Bangalore? Because he initiated industrialization. Same as what Sir M. Vishweshwarayya did during his regime. He took a non-descript town and put it on world map. Today, almost every politician in US right now knows where Bangalore is. A decade ago, Indians outside of South India didn’t know where it was? And the way he achieved it was by promoting capitalist economy. Yes, his son-in law befitted enormously but so did everyone who had interest in Bangalore. Who gets fat pays in Infosys and Wipro.
And why did he use extra-constitutional bodies? Because our officialdom is bureaucratic/lethargic and totally uninterested in doing anything. Only thing they are interested in are increment and promotion. My own parents were doctors in Bangalore Medical College. There, even attenders don’t listen to the Director. How could he deliver with such a setup.
‘SMK allotted 100s of acres to private companies’ : so that people like us could get jobs. And BSY allotted it to Mutts!
‘SMK spent public money on private companies’: so that people like us could get jobs. And again BSY allotted that to Mutts!
How do you think Infosys and Wipro become such major players in IT despite being based in Bangalore which then was not a power house of politics?
Yediyurrappa lost his image not because of corruption; but because of corruption without performance. You made such a long list about SMK; I’ll endorse all allegations. But in the same vein can you come up with atleast one policy/deed that BSY conceptualized/initiated/delivered.
Corruption is an integral part of politics. It exists in India and also in great countries like USA and UK. The question is, despite these inevitable losses, did they deliver/enrich us with anything? Well, SMK did and BSY didn’t?
I’ve argued on behalf of SMK not because I like him but because its about choosing the lesser of the two evils.
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@Simple, a simple question.
Has CWG scam destroyed INC’s hopes in Karnataka?
.
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Interesting to see a person like Kangeya supporting a man corrupt to the core. His team has Brazenly raped karnataka. One minister is in jail.
ANybody’s guess who is next.
Congress is poised to make huge gains in UP, Uttarkhand, Punjab in next years elections. BJP will become a sub regional party.
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BJP is coming back with an absolute majority in the next election – the BJP will win not because the people love them but because the other side of the political spectrum has proved just too messy.
Suresh Kalmadi, A RAja, Kanimozi, Shila Dixit, Manmohan Singh, Praful Patel, etc, etc, etc, are some of the good reasons for which electorate might decide to vote for BJP.
Who is yediruppa, no one knows about him. I can’t even spell his name, so he doesn’t matter in the national politics.
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If this is true, Congress will never win or would have won an election!
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Nastika
I never endorsed the alleged theory that mining scam will destroy BJP in 2014.
Congress is poised to make significant gains in UP, Uttarkhand and Punjab in next year’s assembly elections – not because of mining scam. But because of local factors.
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Why to think about 2014. We have 2012 and 2013 in between. BJP is going to win in MH, MP,Guj, Rajastan, CH. What Cong is going to win? in UP, cong would win 20-25 seats. Cong would loose AP!! Why people are so biased here. Its a matter of time that BJP would regain its strength!! Remember 1999?? BJP won 182 seats!! if BJP wins 160 seats, it would form that Govt with the regional parties.
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Bala
Are you day dreaming> it was the same dodo argument that was doing the rounds during 2009 LS elections. – that congress will be decimated. Rubbish.
All BJP stares are staring at a complete rout. Chatiisgarh. Madhya Pradesh. Himachal and Uttarkhand will see exit of BJP. Simply because ther are a thousand courruption cases and nepotism against the ministers in these states.
With Chiranjeevi in Congress, this party will make tremendous .gains in Andhra. Jaya will ally wiht Congress and sweep Tamil Nadu. BJP will be reduced to single digit in Karnataka – after half its cabinet ministers are in jail starting with Katta. Kerala will give zero seats to BJP.
And so will Orissa be a big zero. Cong will get the advantage of anti incumbency in Orissa – and will win west bengal handsomely with Trinamool Congress
RJD will ally with Cong and Paswan party – together they will ensure that JDU and BJP’s strength will be halved.
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I cant say who is going to form the Govt in 2014 but, one thing I can say that in 2014, BJP is going to win 150+ seats!! Please note that the plus sign might be any where between 10-30 seats!! BJP would continue doing well in GUJ, MP, CH, Kar, BHI. It would win good seats in UP, Raj, MH, Delhi. The edge staes will be Jarkhand, Uttarkhand, Orissa, Assam.
On the other side, Cong would loose TN, AP, MH, Raj, Delhi. Loosing Ap would be a big blow for Cong. Cong might also win 15 seats in UP but not more than that!!
Cong would do weel in Assam, Kerala, Bengal.
Now, please explain me how come Cong would form the govt in 2014!! It would be BJP or third paties supported by BJP in 2014!!
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Hi M,
Thank you very much for endorsing what I have said. You have completely agreed with what I have said. However, you assume more than what I have said. I dont support Yeddyurappa’s corruption. Nor I agree with your logic “chose the from two evils because one is better than other.” That is exactly George Bush said: “If you dont support us, you support Taliban.” But the people all over the world courageously rejected both evils. If you want to support one evil, it is your decision. Sorry for not joining you to the gang of evils. However, I respect your comment, as you showed open mind and a lot of maturity in approach. Thanks God I can see some one who doesnt think on Caste or Communal line.
I have nothing against SM Krishna or against any government alloting free land to Private companies, but my only concern is that it should help the people of this State (who actually lose their resources to foreign and Indian private companies.)
The Software Pipedream is not going to benefit this people in this country for long– Please see this link–
http://moronsview.blogspot.com/2010/10/it-outsourcing-blue-eyed-mafia.html
A universally accepted concept about development is that, any development should benefit the local people who lose for this so called “development”. Secondly the development should be all inclusive.
I think you have been misguided by SM Krishna’s efficient public relation exercise about he being pro-business etc.
Please note that I give specific details. Please answer to the points if possible, with some valid points. I guess that will help.
1) More than 60% of Indians work in Agricultural economy. CP Chandrashekar has proved that IT -BT- BPO sector is not giving jobs to many. Even if we believe these Industry heads propagate, less than 2% of Indian population work in IT-BT-BPO.
2) The fundamental logic of IT Business is that, there should be price difference in two economies (market) if you have to outsource a job to another market. If you have to get the software works executed in India, Indian skiled labour should be eternally cheap. Please read the above given blog– Within one and half decade’s time the Indian Software Hub will become too costly, because of inflation. But by that time, the whole available resources is channelized to promote the IT business at the expense of local business. By the time IT Business disappear from Bangalore, you have already destroyed other industries. Say for example, 15 years back there were lush green paddy fields on both sides of Hosur Road. Where are those agricultural workers now (The Telugu Speaking land owners may have benefited. But their number is very low compared to the population of landless labourers. Where are the garments companies which gave lakhs of workers? They all were forced to relocate.
3) You are son of a Medical practitioner. But not all can afford to stay in Bangalore. At present the minimum price of an apartment inside Bangalore is around 30 lakh. I have a few friends who are Bank Managers in In leading Public Sector banks in Bangalore. But their own banks refuse to give loan to these employees, simply because they are not eligible for loan. Your development is kicking those people shed their sweat for the development of this land. This is acceptable only to Indians. (Simply because caste system train people to think– Why I should worry about them– This attitude is not acceptable in any other country.
I dont have any problem if you give land to private companies, if that benefit anyone. In 1993, I have seen Hosur Road being developed. AT that time, that was being made four lanes, and these crooked guys want us to believe that with that, traffic will be smooth. Later, they said the problem is not having bridge at circles. Again traffic jam during the construction period. Next they said, they need flyover from Madivala to Electonic city directly. The problem is not solved. The whole issue is development model. Unless and until you promote public Transport system, the traffic problem can not be solved. But TATA , Manindra, Ford, Bajaj and other automobile lobby wont allow the government to promote public trasnsport system. In london, every one has got car, but every one use Public Transport system. The Bangalore software chiefs were blackmailing Dharamsingh goverment saying Karnataka Govt should develop roads exclusively for them. Why Infosys is now declaring that they cant expand business in Bangalore now, but they want to look for other cheaper areas? Let them return all the land they grabbed and all the resources they have got from Indian Government. It is not SM Krishna’s money. It is the wealth of the people of this Nation. In a State nearly 40-50 % of the population is not even literate what benefit you are talking about the local received.
Again if you have time please read this blog –http://moronsview.blogspot.com/2010/10/it-outsourcing-blue-eyed-mafia.html
Secondly, your version that SM Krishna developed Bangalore IT is factually not correct.
1) IT was Ramakrishna Hedge who started Electronic City, which made Bangalore the electronic capital of India.
2) By late 1960s USA helped Pakistan to acquire defence technology so that they can attack any border cities in India easily. India was forced to locate all strategic defence establishments away from border and coastal areas. Hence Bangalore and Pune became Military -Research-Development-Electoronic Hub.
When Infosys was started, they wanted the first generation IT engineers. They decided to poach the senior engineers from Public Sector Defence companies. That is the reason why Infosys started in Bangalore and not because of SM Krishna.
India government started large number of Public Sector companies in Bangalore. That meant tens of thousands of middle-class working in a small location and there was surplus with them, which they used to give good education for their children. These engineering and Management graduated formed the second generation back-bone for the software company workforce. Again it is not SM Krishna, but it is because of the so-called socialist economy which helped greedy private companies to reap benefits.
3) It was HD DeveGowda who started the first International IT Parks in Bangalore. Do you know what SM Krishna was doing durintg this period? He was blackmailing inside Vidhan Soudha preventing one of the most hard-working Chief Minister from doing something for Karnataka– Please read old News Papers to see SM Krishna almost every day stalling the VidhanSoudha and preventing Veerappa Moily govt from doing work,
4)It was JH Patil who started the Outer Ring Road which helped traffic to become smooth around Bangalore. Aain it was HD Deve Gowda who initiated Nandi Corridoor, But he clearly specified that (MOU) that Private parties should use their own resources to develop that road. But SM Krishna and DK Shivkumar wanted to loot that money. Please read various newspapers to see details. ( You are referred a full page artilce in Vijay Karnataka group New Paper.)
5) Though, it was a bad decision, again it was HD Devegowda government at National level which gave Tax Holiday to IT Business. (This is a wrong decision, but that is the real reason for IT Boom.)
There is a story of a fox, which was looking towards the moon and howling. Exactly at that time a jackfruit (Halasia Hannu) fell from nearby tree and the moon went behind the moving clouds. The fox exclaimed himself: “Hmm.. the moon has fell down with force of my howling !! ”
The Software Boom happened in India due to various factors. And part of those period, if SM Krishna was sitting in CM’s chair, how can he be responsible for it. Now he is a minister in Central Govt. Let him prevent global recession and show his skills.
A large number of people started showing interest in Economy, business, IT etc very recently and they all think the fox or an SM Krishna is responsbile for every big things happening. I wish we also spend some times to undestand the rules and reason for the IT Outsourcing and how the compulsions of International finance Capital is forcing these developments.
Anyway thanks for your sober and intelligent reply. And sorry for disagreeing with you on certain points.
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There is hope…..only if educated people and the rich class understand their fundamental responsibility of casting their vote.It would encourage more independent candidates like Capt.Gopinath,Mallika sarabhai….etc to contest elections and also get elected.
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Simple…what a funny argument….Chiru will help Cong sweep AP!! i am from AP!! Chiru himself lost the election and he is going to make Cong win the elections….come here and see…there is no Cong here..Just the Govt is running because it has numbers…in AP, out of 42, cong would win 5-10 seats…you count on me…
Wait till 2014…everything gets changed…BJP would emerge as the single largest party…
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In one of my earlier post– The line– “Backing Sachar report is communal politics.” — This is not my view– I just quoted it. (sorry, the quotes were missing, I didnt notice it earlier)
My view is given at the end of para– But if any one say that is Communal, it shows whose mind is communal.
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I for one would not want to make predictions now but both the BJP or the Congress would not be altogether unhappy if they are able to play the role of spoilers in the next national elections. With the political heat that the government is facing and the increased activism shown by the judiciary and independent groups, it might seem more attractive for major political leaders to be kingmakers rather than kings. That would help them enjoy power without accountability.
@M – I think you should recheck your facts about the growth of the technology sector in India in general and Bangalore in particular. Shemej has outlined those factors in great detail.
To summarize, there was a well established base of major public sector companies and R&D establishments right from the 60s. In the late seventies and early 80s IT majors including InfoSys and Wipro migrated here. They were helped by favorable policies of the governments in that period. SMK was nowhere in the picture then. Other major IT companies had set up shop here by the early 90s. The liberalization of the economy and an increase inflow of software projects to India gave a major fillip to the industry. Bangalore was a major beneficiary as it had a ready talent pool, good infrastructure and favorable policies to absorb this work. Successive governments from the 80s both at the state and the central level, initiated policies to benefit this sector. This cannot be attributed to just one government or individual.
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Compelling post, shemej. :)
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shemej
Chiru got 16% vote share in his first election. This will directly go to Congress kitty. Add 16% to Congres’s existing 38% and you see a massive 56% for Congress.
Jagan Reddy may take 10% away. 5% may go for incumbency. Still that means Congress has a massive 41% – enough to win a thumping majority in a multi cornered fight consisting of TDP, TRS, and Jagan Reddy.
. You may be from Andhra but your math is all wrong.
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Shemji:
Exhilarating stuff. Very detailed and apt.
Hopefully we’ll indeed have an alternative political philosophy develop in this country. The likes of Loaksatta, who focus on good governance, administration & growth will gain importance in coming years.
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In AP, BJP got 19% votes in 1999!! What is the figure now? You think that those 16% still stick with Chiru and those 16% thinks Chiru is the God?? Chiru might help getting 2-3% votes to Cong and the Cong’s own vote share would be reduced to 15-20%!! Politics is not math man!! if it is Math, anyone can get succeeded..politics is nothing but people’s emotions during the time of elections…
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Thanks friends for appreciating (and also critical) comments.
About percentage of votes– If we can believe the Yogendra Yadav- CNN-Hindu survey, Congress may make gain significantly in UP election. (This was contrary to what I thought it would be.). A Congress gain may hit Mulayam more than others? Or BJP?
But the over-all ratings of BJP leaders is less than 10 (Advani + Modi)- That is a huge fall. This means, BJP will be finished in 2014 elections. Where did this move into? It s likely that Anna Hazare and third party now attract this segments. Please note When BJP popularity declined, Congress has not gained. See Mayavati Sharad pawar et al. If we read in between the lines, third party leaders’ popularity has not suffered much. We will have a hung parliament in 2014 and Nitish Kumar may be forced to come out of NDA. When the very platform of NDA Crumble, why should the regional parties stay with them. They need some say in Central Govt to oppose their arch rivals in local level.
Indian Politics is moving to a new direction, I guess.
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Bala
In 1999, BJP was in alliance with TDP, hence it got double digit vote share – although i am not sure of 19%, it could be less.
Without TDP, BJP was reduced to 5 to 7% %. That is the actual strenght of BJP in AP
However, Chiru, on his own got 16% – this is not in alliance with any party – and this vote share is more or less transferrable to any othe party.
Politics is very much about arithmetic.
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Okay, the final Yogendra Yadav Survey (CNN-Hindu) is out. They predict big swing in favour of Congress in UP.
Here is a possibility and problem for Congress. Congress neither has an organization nor a social-group-base in UP. Immediately after Loksabha election (When Congress got 20 seats from UP, Congress’ popularity fell (in the bi-elections.) . This means, Congress popularity is highly volatile in UP.
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Shemej
By elections ARE NEVER an indicator of people’s moods. By elections are a totally different ball game altogether. People usually vote for the party in power almost always.
The survey says Congress gaining substantially in UP, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Orissa while it will retain its strength in Maharshtra, West Bengal, Kerala. Cong is improving in Tamil Nadu too.
Karnataka is the best news for Cong – it has a 8% lead over BJP – which translated could mean a 150 plus seats for Congress and 50 seats for BJP,
However, in AP, what the survey has done is split the state into two. Which is wrong. Cong in entire AP is getting 50 % which is much more than YSR’s 40%. So clearly Cong is winning here too.
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If everything is simple arithmetic, why was Congress reduced to single digit in UP?
Why did Left Front bite the dust in WB?
And for those who are thinking that the surveys bring out the real public mood:
Look at the survey’s that were done before the elections of UP.
None of them had predicted that Mayavati will come to power.
Even in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat most of these so-called scientific survey’s could not predict the real mood!
And for those who are thinking that elections are “simple” arithmetic:
Go and do your arithmetic to find the size of scams in last 10 years.
And don’t think that, people will forget these facts before voting in 2014.
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