What will happen to Karnataka politics come October? If your answer is, “who cares?” then stop right here. If your answer is, “who knows?” then the academic/ analyst/ psephologist Sandeep Shastri paints five different scenarios in today’s Indian Express.
Scenario 1: The Janata Dal (Secular) and Bharatiya Janata Party stick to their agreement, and JDS hands over the chief ministership to BJP, no questions asked.
Scenario 2: JD(S) hands over the leadership of government to the BJP but on the condition that the BJP chooses the chief minister in consultation with the JD(S).
Scenario 3: Opposition to the handover of power grows within JD(S). A section of the BJP breaks away and aligns itself with JD(S). With independent support, JD(S) forms government again.
Scenario 4: JD(S) refuses to be part of a coalition led by BJP and seeks the support of the Congress. Congress offers outside support to a JD(S) government to prevent the BJP from coming to power.
Scenario 5: JD(S) refuses to hand over leadership to BJP. BJP walks out of the government, council of ministers recommends the dissolution of the assembly.
Which scenario according to you is most likely? Did BJP make a mistake in aligning with the JD(S)? Will a stint in power for the BJP be good for the State? If JD(S) stabs the BJP in the back, will its credibility be demolished forever? Should Congress realign with the JD(S) considering what happened last time? And who, brother, is going to be the next Chief Minister of the State?
Read the full story here: Coalition pacts may come, they may go
Also read: CHURUMURI POLL: Congress-JD(S) tie up again?
churumuri 
I see a Scenario 6:
Deve Gowda’s other son HD something or the other, will break away from HD Kumaraswamy’s break away faction and align with a faction of the Congress to form a Government that has a two vote majority, resulting in HD Deve Gowda sending another long letter to another son, while Yediyurappa is made to look like Wile E Coyote as the Chief Minister’s post merrily speeds away from him with a Meep Meep..
Or a Scenario 7:
JDS splits from BJP to find that the Congress won’t touch it with a 20 foot sterlized barge pole, nor will the BJP EVER form a government with them leading to general chaos (read election) where the same hung assembly is thrown up and Dharam Singh is once again seen surreptitously heading towards Gowda HQ to form another alliance….
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Scene 1 – bad joke
Scene 2 – you mean Kumarswamy continuing as CM?!!
Scene 3 – possible (Yedi and Co breaking away to join JD(s) and Yedi remianing as DCM)
Scene 4 – Siddu’s suicide
Scene 5 – most likely – With Rahul Gandhi tipped to become AICC Gen Sec very soon, kar-nataka elections will be an ideal practise match before general elections. And KPCC will be salvating to ride the new Gandhi wave.
Scene 6 – Is karnataka congress a rock solid unit? cant it be broken?
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“Does it matter?” may seem like a cynical question but it must be asked simply because Karnataka politics seems to be swimming in a cesspool to the cheers of different castes standing on the boundary. If the Congress and JD(Secular) could come together to keep the BJP out, and if the JDS and BJP could come together to throw the Congress out, and if now there is talk of Congress or JDS again joining hands, we are not looking anything elevating but pure and naked power play where politics has been reduced to a business—and a family business at that. Corruption, farmer suicides, Cauvery, sexual escapades, etc, have all become casualties as media manipulation and image building takes centrestage, no questions asked.
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There is one more possibility in the political fall out in the month of October. JD (S) is definitely reluctant to work in a government headed by the BJP which it banged time and again as communal outfit. It will definitely dent its so called secular credentials to work as a junior partner and it may have to lose its face in national politics
It is not easy for it to realign with Congress as Siddaramaiah the latest icon of backward class in the congress will oppose the move tooth and nail. As it is , JDS thinks its real threat in the coming election is congress and not the BJP. Bringing Congress in to the corridors of power is nothing but digging its own grave.
Question of ushering in early election is a prospect dreaded by every member irrespective of party he is affiliated. The very threat of facing election may prompt them to take any step to retain power even daring the party whip .HDD knows it well in spite of his tall talk of loyalty of JD(S) party members.
The only option left is to honour the commitment it has made 20 months back , of course on ideological reason it can keep out of the government and extend out side support on issue by issue basis. It keeps the party in power in perpetual fear . It is too easy to snatch its pound of flesh. It can claim the share of glory for all the pro people programs if at all the puppet government succeeds and blame squarely the alliance partner in power with out any qualms.
It can wait for an opportune time to strike when it feels confident of facing the electorate and with draw support on ideological ground. There will be definitely an issue to put before the people with its head held high. It can not be blamed for dis honouring the pact. It can kill two birds in a single shot.
The Comrades have already perfected the art of remote control running of the government. Just it can follw their suit. The doors of third front will be wide open for its entry and can hope to play some important role in the national politics. It will be definitely a `Heads I win and tails you lose ` situation.
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So called secular parties are trying to undermine BJP by creating more caste identities, which proves neither “secularism” is winning, nor it will be beneficial to the country in the long run. BJP undermined OBC movement by raising OBC leaders having pan-Indian appeal like Modi, Uma Bharati. Present rise of “Dalit” politics ( la Mayavati type) will similarly be undermined by raising some pan Indian Dalit leaders from RSS stable, if not already.
Politicalization of caste, most of the times inventing it altogether, go contrary to Nehruvian ideals as well. Needless to say, it will create further chaos. Karnataka being the state where India’s tech Capital is located will have a larger impact on the country.
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If I were a BJP leader in Karnataka, I wud be worried abt the possibility of JDS handing over power to BJP and pulling the plug in two months in the name of secularism. BJP cannot complete the rest of the term in alliance with JDS. They shud try to cut the losses.
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Balaji , you are right. Assumption of power is in no way better than a tiger ride for BJP.
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