CHURUMURI POLL: The October Revolution?

What will happen to Karnataka politics come October? If your answer is, “who cares?” then stop right here. If your answer is, “who knows?” then the academic/ analyst/ psephologist Sandeep Shastri paints five different scenarios in today’s Indian Express.

Scenario 1: The Janata Dal (Secular) and Bharatiya Janata Party stick to their agreement, and JDS hands over the chief ministership to BJP, no questions asked.

Scenario 2: JD(S) hands over the leadership of government to the BJP but on the condition that the BJP chooses the chief minister in consultation with the JD(S).

Scenario 3: Opposition to the handover of power grows within JD(S). A section of the BJP breaks away and aligns itself with JD(S). With independent support, JD(S) forms government again.

Scenario 4: JD(S) refuses to be part of a coalition led by BJP and seeks the support of the Congress. Congress offers outside support to a JD(S) government to prevent the BJP from coming to power.

Scenario 5: JD(S) refuses to hand over leadership to BJP. BJP walks out of the government, council of ministers recommends the dissolution of the assembly.

Which scenario according to you is most likely? Did BJP make a mistake in aligning with the JD(S)? Will a stint in power for the BJP be good for the State? If JD(S) stabs the BJP in the back, will its credibility be demolished forever? Should Congress realign with the JD(S) considering what happened last time? And who, brother, is going to be the next Chief Minister of the State?

Read the full story here: Coalition pacts may come, they may go

Also read: CHURUMURI POLL: Congress-JD(S) tie up again?