The kerfuffle kicked up by the communists over the Indo-US nuclear deal has seen a flurry of opinion polls. While most respondents seem to think little of the left’s attempts to bat on their behalf, at least three polls have also sneaked in questions on how the controversy has changed the political scenarion in the country, and what might happen if there were to be a poll tomorrow or any day soon.
# An opinion poll (sample size 12,179) conducted across 120 constituencies by NDTV and GfK-Mode says Congress would win 185 seats, up from 145 in 2004; but its allies like the RJD would lose ground, so the UPA in total would only stand at 232 seats, up from the 2004 tally of 212. The BJP would win 116 seats, down 22; its allies would win 42, taking the BJP and its allies to 158, versus 180 in 2004. The Left would win 39 seats, down from the 64 it won in the last elections.
# A poll (sample size 6,500) conducted in 200 Lok Sabha constituencies in 20 States for The Week magazine by C-Voter says the Congress and the Left parties will lose big in the event of a snap poll, making it a neck-and-neck race between the two big alliances. The poll shows that the UPA is likely to end up with about 172 to 192 seats and the NDA with 178 to 198 seats.
# A poll (sample size 600) conducted by the Bombay newspaper DNA in association with IMRS says that in the event of a snap poll, 37 per cent of Urban India will vote for Congress and its alliance partners, while 27 per cent will vote for BJP and its alliance partners. 31.2 per cent of Urban India says it will vote for other parties. The Left Front bags less than 5 per cent (4.8 per cent) share of the vote, a majority of it coming from its traditional bastion of Calcutta.
Questions: Which party and which alliance do you think will benefit if there is a snap poll tomorrow? Will the Congress benefit as two of the polls seem to think? Has the BJP squandered a chance by being seen to be opposing the deal? Will it be a close race as another suggests? Will the N-deal be a poll issue at all?
Infographic courtesy The Telegraph, Calcutta
churumuri 
It is only a wishful thinking. Why do you always think of mid-term polls? Any election in India will not benefir the common man. The common man has already ben burdened , don’t trouble him. Whether is is the Left or the Right or the Centre ordinary people do not bother about it. They always think of the spiralling prices only. Hell with elections…
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No party will benefit. It will another hung parliament with the inept and regressive leftists pulling the nation backwards.
The BJP is caught in a blind and has been a loser because of its indecisiveness.
The N-deal will not be a major poll issue and have an impact on the elections becaue a majority of Indians are not aware and of the N-deal in the first place and are not educated on the implications except for a small minority.
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* and will not have an impact…
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Ther will not be any elections now. Left will just fold up!
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The best possible thing in the event of mid term poll is the decline of commies bargaining power. There is a clear indication of woman quartet (Sonia, Jaya, Maya and Mamata) may emerge stronger. There is a fair chance of forming a stable alliance if at least three of the four lady leading lights join hands. Any how Jaya and Mamta have no aspiration to shine at the national arena but Maya is nursing the ambition of capturing the Red Fort though not in the immediate future. She has set a long term goal that may be realized after one or two general elections.
Only the problem in coming together is their inflated ego that may mar any sort of understanding. There is one saying popular among the people` ‘Nooru Juttu sera bahudu aadare mooru jade ottige serolla ‘(hundred tufts can join together but not three plaits). It implies the chances of hundred men working together but not three women. I do feel this adage is out dated as neither tuft nor plait has any relevance now. It reflects the age old male dominated mind set of society that recognized the traditional and old fashioned men and women thus symbolically. Now at least two of them sports bobbed hair and the other two do not flaunt their plaits. They are dynamic, dashing and dare enough to challenge any person in the field of politics. So a pre poll alliance of all the four to be named conveniently after the respective leaders as ‘JMMS’( The name is only an alphabetical arrangement to avoid heart burn over the question of priority) is sure to sway the country and sweep the elections.
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I’m surprised NDTV and the others even bother doing a poll after the numerous times they’ve been caught napping, the UP elections being the latest instance!
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Country and People will suffer. As for Left, they will have nothing much left to be relevant.
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Don’t believe in opinion polls, especially NDTV ones. For all you know, BJP could spring a surprise in the event of snap polls now.
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How India votes has always been a paradox for students of political science. Unlike other democracies, the middle class India usually abstains from voting (for many reasons). People on this forum might say who they want to vote but might not get to vote as many stay far and away from their constituencies!
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