CHURUMURI POLL: If there’s a snap election…

The kerfuffle kicked up by the communists over the Indo-US nuclear deal has seen a flurry of opinion polls. While most respondents seem to think little of the left’s attempts to bat on their behalf, at least three polls have also sneaked in questions on how the controversy has changed the political scenarion in the country, and what might happen if there were to be a poll tomorrow or any day soon.

# An opinion poll (sample size 12,179) conducted across 120 constituencies by NDTV and GfK-Mode says Congress would win 185 seats, up from 145 in 2004; but its allies like the RJD would lose ground, so the UPA in total would only stand at 232 seats, up from the 2004 tally of 212. The BJP would win 116 seats, down 22; its allies would win 42, taking the BJP and its allies to 158, versus 180 in 2004. The Left would win 39 seats, down from the 64 it won in the last elections.

# A poll (sample size 6,500) conducted in 200 Lok Sabha constituencies in 20 States for The Week magazine by C-Voter says the Congress and the Left parties will lose big in the event of a snap poll, making it a neck-and-neck race between the two big alliances. The poll shows that the UPA is likely to end up with about 172 to 192 seats and the NDA with 178 to 198 seats.

# A poll (sample size 600) conducted by the Bombay newspaper DNA in association with IMRS says that in the event of a snap poll, 37 per cent of Urban India will vote for Congress and its alliance partners, while 27 per cent will vote for BJP and its alliance partners. 31.2 per cent of Urban India says it will vote for other parties. The Left Front bags less than 5 per cent (4.8 per cent) share of the vote, a majority of it coming from its traditional bastion of Calcutta.

Questions: Which party and which alliance do you think will benefit if there is a snap poll tomorrow? Will the Congress benefit as two of the polls seem to think? Has the BJP squandered a chance by being seen to be opposing the deal? Will it be a close race as another suggests? Will the N-deal be a poll issue at all?

Infographic courtesy The Telegraph, Calcutta