CHURUMURI POLL: Who will win next elections?

With the BJP withdrawing support, and the JDS categorically stating that it was not in favour of joining hands with the Congress again, the stage seems set for fresh elections to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly, regardless of whether there is a spell of President’s Rule or not. “Our intention is to go for people’s mandate,” JD-S president H. D. Deve Gowda has said.

So, who will win the election if it were to be held tomorrow? Is the JDS right in assuming that its showing in the local body elections is a sign of the shape of things to come in the assembly polls? Will the BJP be able to convince the people of Karnataka that it has been betrayed and that it deserves a clear chance this time? Or will the Congress benefit from the confusion that has prevailed for the last 20 months?

How many seats will each party win next time round? If mid-term elections to the Lok Sabha are held around the same time as the Karnataka polls, will it affect the outcome? Or is it going to be another “hung” verdict? (For the record, in the current house, of the total 224 seats, BJP with its ally JDU has 84, Congress has 65, JD(S) has 58 while others have 17 seats.)