The abrupt end to Karnataka’s latest coalition experiment, the reimposition of President’s Rule, the ratification of it by Parliament, and the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly pave the way for fresh elections in the State. Originally due only in May 2009, the mid-term polls, in all likelihood, will be held about a year in advance. The simple question is: which party will most likely win the next Assembly elections in Karnataka? Or, if a single party fails to win a majority on its own, which combination of parties will occupy the gaddi at the Vidhana Soudha next?
Will the JDS be wiped out of existence because of its “worst-ever betrayal”? Or will the public’s short memory come to its help? Will the BJP, which has not been tested, be able to sustain the sympathy wave for another six months so as to encash it at the hustings? Or will a fresh round of internecine warfare between its leading lights curtail its performance? Does the Congress stand any chance of benefitting from the fracas? Will either the Congress or BJP join hands with the “untouchable” JDS given its behaviour and record?
What are the factors that will influence the elections? And what is most likely to be the seat share in the 224-member House for the three parties? In 2004, it was BJP 79, Congress, 64, JDS 58.
Is like one of those fake wrestling matches staged to throw mud in the paying public’s eyes. Nobody knows if it will be a 1 on 1 on 1 battle, or 2 ganging up on 1 or just a 3 way orgy.
A question:
How will you decide who you will vote for? By party or by candidate in your constituency? Or will not vote at all?
Hope the people of karnataka win against the politicians!!!
Here’s my prediction:
the BJP and the Congress will improve their tally at the expense of the JD(S) which will split into two parties.
However, neither BJP nor Congress will get enough to form the government on their own so the horse trading will begin. Both the halves of the JD(S) and the smaller parties (SP, BSP, and so on) will be courted and more horse-trading before we get a stable government.
Given that the JD(S) has split and there are many smaller parties which are willing to help the BJP or COngress “get past the line” DG and Sons will have less chance of influencing the formation of the government.
All I can hope for is a long period of political vendetta where DG and Sons are made to run from Court to court trying to stave off the numerous cases filed against them, and even if they don’t get jailed, I issue this appeal to the legal fraternity to bankrupt the lot with lawyer fees. Trust me, the image of the lawyer in Karnataka will skyrocket.
The state is suffering while the Gowdas are making a mockery of the democratic process. Hope they get annihilated at the polls. We deserve to put this behind us and move on. The state’s machinery and the exchequer is much needed by very many saner initiatives than the whimsical buffonery of these imbecile nincompoops(Gowdas).
this is nice time pass.
actually it is likely that there will be 4 parties. cong, bjp, jd(s), jd(x)
apart from vachanabrashTa issue nothing else has changed fundamentally for either congress, the bjp or the jd
it is likely that vachanabrashTa votes will eat it into jd both (s) and (x).
but that does not trasnlate to exclusive natadrushTa votes for BJP.
people who didnot vote for BJP to begin with, are unlikely to vote for BJP just because of this.
congress too has some claim natadrushTa votes.
but cong has no track record. it had a horrible run. people are not likely to remember cong’s run but the problem is BJP can talk about record and people are likely to remember that. so non-vachanabrashTa issue votes are split too.
so the real question is why congress got voted out in the first place is important to understand. i.e., why do people vote for congress?
IMO, if cong fields good candidates it could prolly win. but if it is the same cook’s son type of candidates then it will be the same scene we had so far. the danger being jd(s) playing king maker with his 20-30 seats. *shudder*
in the wake of dumping cong, siddu’s election was barely won by congress. more later in the tenure, working record did wonders in local lections even in mysore for jd(s). now it squandered it.
ok… alok beat me to it…
BJP,BJP,BJP.
6 months is huge in indian politics. to sustain so called WAVE forsuch a long period is unrealistic. bickerings in BJP GANG has already begun. infighting , lack of leaders with mass appeal, no people oriented issues will seriously dent bjp prospects. they might end up getting 45-50 seats.
JD S inspite of dissidence, kumaraswamy factor, solid backing of minorities may retain their tally.
IF CONGRESS revamps kpcc, keep S M KRISHNA lobby out, then they will be the biggest GAINERS.
CONGRESS- JD S ALLIANCE IS THE ONLY ANSWER AFTER ELECTIONS.
*Cong will emerge as single largest party, will win more seats than 2004
*BJP numbers will come down
*JDS lead by MP Prakash will win handful seats with or without friendly fights + alliance with Cong
*Cong + JDS Prakash will give a shot a power
KP – you must track these repsonses and give away a prize of the most accurate guess. What say sir ?
Congress has a better chance. Whatever the BJP may say, it has also been thoroughly exposed. Infighting will also const them dearly.
If SM Krishna returns, he will take away all Vokkaliga votes from the Gowda camp. Then Congress may get 120-130 seats.
Otherwise the leaderless Congress will cross 100 mark with the solid support of Kurubas and Minorities plus its kayam votes.
BJP may get maximum 80 seats. Minimum 50-60 seats.
JD (S) may get maximum 20 seats, minimum 5 seats.
Others will cross 25 mark this year. SP & BSP may get 15-20 seats together.
Churumuri. it is not svalpa sihi svalpa kahi for the people of Karnataka. It is full of chillies in the churumuri making you run in search of water. Either way the kannadigas have to be content with water only, provided the rain gods show mercy on the state.
It will be a hung assembly, cong might take support from prakash’s faction to form the govt
hung assembly with chances of sp and bsp gaining at the expense of JD(S)… pity that once a model state of karnataka has now become an arena for politicians mud slinging… and the entry of bsp and sp has brought the north indian culture in to our state(wont work and wont allow others also to work-north indian philosophy)…
BJP has a good prospect to improving its tally. But it needs to be seen whether it can cross the halfway mark. The Lingayat community is likely to vote for the BJP and being the largest voting community, it is definitely good news for the BJP. The Vokkaliga votes will more or less go to JD(S) despite its image problem – this might get divided if SM Krishna steps in. The Muslim and other minority votes will probably go to the Congress. In urban constituencies, I guess there will be an even fight between the BJP and the Congress. However, the smaller parties might make their surprise presence in this election. They will naturally ally themselves with the largest party once the elections are over. Psephologists will have interesting times here in Karnataka.
Add to vinay’s post, its a question of which is more:
Cong + JD(Prakashanna) Vs BJP + JD(Kumaranna). And Revanna will be the PWD Minister.
Very good point Nastika…
Congress has a better chance. Whatever the BJP may say, it has also been thoroughly exposed. Infighting will also const them dearly.
If SM Krishna returns, he will take away all Vokkaliga votes from the Gowda camp. Then Congress may get 120-130 seats.
Otherwise the leaderless Congress will cross 100 mark with the solid support of Kurubas and Minorities plus its kayam votes.
BJP may get maximum 80 seats. Minimum 50-60 seats.
JD (S) may get maximum 20 seats, minimum 5 seats.
Others will cross 25 mark this year. SP & BSP may get 15-20 seats together.
Morons will still go and vote for the same politicians…and the garbage will be served for ever.
Missed this: JD(Prakashanna) & JD(Kumaranna) will report to Deve Gowda.
Karnataka people will definetly vote back Dirty Gowda and his CLAN, ot atleast make him importent in forming the Govt. Kannadigas get easily carried away by Gowda’s antics! One should go to Mandya, Hassan and Davangere and see! Only —— can save —?
Just a question, can the Governor suo moto slap some embezzlement cases on Gowda and Kumaranna. If only the state congress can persuade the bar dancer at the center to have this done, Gowda and his family and JDS will be history in the next election and we might look forward to a 2 party system in the state.
Mayura
Why should governor file a case? There is already a sword hanging above the former CM in the form of GaNi HagaraNa. Even if it is not 150 crore doesn’t matter. Even 10,000 Rupees is a bribe. You might have watched lower level officials accepting a few hundred rupees as bribe are dismissed from the government service and sent to jail. People who bribed should also be made to answer the public, if not their conscience. BiDi swami, yaaro bandaru namage kashTa paDodu thappolla, namma diDime avarige sukha. Baruvudu Kichadi Sirkaaraane. Mattade jagaLa, mattade scenegaLu.
Whatever happens, I pray taayi chamundi from preventing Sidrama become..I can accept yeddi and revu but not sidrama.. I hate that cheap english spouting arrogant vaccumhead..His arrogance is repugnant
Sathya,
My point was to get rid of the gowda and family’s strangle hold on the state politics by making them run around the courts if a few cases of embezzlement/misappropriation is slapped against them. Remember what happened to PVN when Sitaram Kesari made him run from court to court, even thought none of the cases were proved. But in Gowda’s case there is prima facie evidence to show corruption on big scale. Why not use this opportunity to decimate the gowda family and their politics.
Very profound statement by Kuthuhala.
Question for everybody. With the politicians renaming all the metros and cities, why leave you smaller towns like Hassan? That is a mohammedan name. All such names belong to Pakistan and not Karnataka. Please tell me that town was named after Hassan Jahangir of “hawa hawa” fame or some wild ancestor of his.
Sir Ashes Soul Broken into Pieces,
The name Hassan is derived from the local goddess Hasanamba.
I know you are being funny:)
Yaar ivanu aatmapudi? Nangyeno samshaya…
Yaar iva aatmapudi? Nanigyeno samshaya…
The patron goddess of Hassan is always in a reclining position, which is referred to as “aasana,” short for Aasanamba. It is not unusual in Kannada to replace “akaara” with “hakaara.” I suspect thus “aasana” probably became “Haasana.” The British perhaps further tweaked it as “Hassan”. Nothing Islamic about any ot this.
An old joke: A railway worker in Arasikere had the job of announcing the arrival of trains at that station. For Arasikere he said Harasikere. In Hasana his counterpart said Aasana. Someone got the bright idea of correcting the situation by a mutual transfer. Nothing changed after the transfer.
aatmapudi, with your skills in linguistics, how do you get sleep on a haasige?
Who cares which party wins ?!?!
Tell me who is the front runner for the Mining and PWD ministries?? I want an airport contract in Attibele.
you don’t want cycles? need power connection? how about water?
I will bet on Congress or a Congress-JD(S) coalition
BJP: Despite the sympathy factor will get hit owing to internal squabbles and weak organizational network.
JD(S): Will not underestimate its draw especially backward sections and minorities.
If BJP ever wins, all the elected representatives should owe that to SHOBHA YATRE.
If JD(S) ever wins, all of their elected representatives should owe their win to Ravi Belagere’s movie – “Mukhyamantri in Love”
If Congress ever wins, all of their elected representatives should owe their win to BJP and / or JDS since they would’ve won by default.
BJP has to find better leaders.
My guess: BJP will emerge as the single largest party.
Dont believe Prakash, look at him. He always has a fake agenda. he is setup by Gowda, and hence always claims that Gowda and HDK are his leaders but doesnot like the functioning only.
Ask the congress why theydidnot have trust in Prakash when the JDS second time supported BJP, ditching Prakash attempts to tie with Cong. Gowda knows when to confused the people watching the TV channels. But the Congress knows better about happenings in JDS.
All this drama by Prakash and Gowda is to make sure that people vote for the dissidents from JDS (prakash supporters) and then later Prakash will come back to Gowda with those seats and JDS will think about power sharing agreements to other parties. The poor voter will be baffled to find out that it was a bait from JDS camp.
The only party to go by organization policies is Congress. Iam not really for Congress but the party has structure, mentoring and monitoring from top till bottom. Yes S.M Krishna will definitely bring in leadership for state and bring curse for Gowdas. Look at how Gowda gets scared every now and then about SM Krishna being in town.
BJP has lost grounds and is in confusion. Look at them now. their only agenda is talking more and more about gowda and thereby making the Gowdas more popular. The voting mass will understand that There is guy called Gowda who is very rich, influencial and powerful of which BJP is scared and so they are constantly yelling about it. they dont know the art of winning and even if they won the dont know how to survive. Its like the saying goes… “ANY BULLSH.T CAN TAKE YOU ON TOP, BUT YOU REQUIRE CHARACTER TO STAY THERE!!”
Finally it will be JDS and Cong to form Govt,, with devegowda claiming to retire from active politics and handing over reigns to HDK or Revanna, … with Siddaramiah becoming CM and Prakash Dy CM..
my two cents
In urban mysore, BJP will win 2 out of 3 seats ( I dont think Maruti Rao cant do it). In chamundeshwari – siddu will retain. Hunsur and Periyapatna might get tricky (dont discount the Siddu’s magic on Kuruba community in these two taluks). K R Nagar has no history of re-electing the incumbent.
Shivanna might win in Kote and the only place JD(S) would retain might be Nanjangud.
In all, i dont expect more than a dozen JD(s) MLAs.
yesterday in the JD S bruhat samaavesha , kumaraswamy and devegowda went on the offensive against bjp , but congress received less criticism . may be these are the signs of things to come.
MOST HEARTENING ASPECT WAS, A MAN CALLED Y S V DATTA,
THOUGH A VIDHANA PARISHAT MEMBER, A NOTABLE LEADER, HE WAS SEEN SITTING ON THE FLOOR WITH PARTY WORKERS.
HE OFTEN TRAVELS IN AUTOS. A HIGHLY LEARNED INDIVIDUAL, A PARTY LOYALIST. karnataka politics needs people like him.
such people are a rarity in politics.
chairmenra chaaNakshyatana
The much-publicised executive committee meeting of JD(S) headed by H.D. Deve Gowda began here at the Sheesh Mahal in Palace grounds one hour twenty minutes before its scheduled time 11.30 am this morning with Deve Gowda and his aide Y.S.V. Dutta on the stage and absolutely no audience.
Rather strangely, Dutta began to address the empty chairs as Deve Gowda inaugurated the meeting by lighting the traditional lamp and soon some members were seen walking in.
Dutta while speaking clarified to those few members who were present that the reason for H.D. Deve Gowda arriving at the venue and occupying the seat on the stage 80 minutes in advance was that the scheduled time of 11.30 was inauspicious, but had to be chosen to enable the members from far off places to reach the venue in time. Dutta said now that they had occupied the chairs and commenced the meeting at an auspicious time (Muhurtha) all will be well for the party.
Observing Gowda’s early arrival at the venue some members were heard remarking that it was a smart and clever move by the old political war horse to attract the delegates to the meeting. The delegates who would otherwise arrive late as usual for such meetings would now hurry up to reach the venue on hearing the arrival of the supremo well in advance. It was around 11 am that JD(S) President Merajuddin Patel and MLC Abdul Azeem entered Sheesh Mahal.
Star of Mysore Nov 29, 2007
Sir Vibhudi Aatmapudi – brush up your Kannada and history please.
The people will have a hard choice on their hand. All the three main political players who woo them for mandate, have lost credibility,. There is nothing to choose among them. All indulge in double talk, relish in the art of reneging on the promises made and are totally untrustworty.
@Vibudhi Aatmapudi,
I don’t think you were being funny, but one of those moron who gets fits seeing any and everything sounding Muslim name. The guys here are charitable, in covering you up…but if fellows like you left unattended will create more Datta thing finding feeblist of connection.
Just imagine any connection of Hassan to Muslim, these morons could have launched morcha, mind you for these thing you don’t need majority…but active few morns….the rest of the fuel will be provided by our ever alarmist media.
What is there to choose between the twidledum and twidledee. Both the BJP and the Congress happen to be the two sides of the same defaced coin and JDS has ruled itself out on its own.
People will have to choose the lesser evil. Between the dacoit and thief, choose the latter, between the house burglar and pickpocketer, choose the latter and so on.
The moot question is who is what? Tell us depend on the wisdom of the people, who have not lost it despite all the tamasha going on around them. ‘ .
Yean doctrey,
Bhaari bhakthi YSV Datthanamayle. Let me tell you an incident about what a swindler this guy is:
It was just after he had contested on SJP ticket (erstwhile Deve gowda party) and lost miserably. He was living in Rajajinagara Bengaluru. A crowd had gathered and heated voices were heard in front of his house and the front door was smashed; the background is thus;
Your learned Datta had taken money from three students promising them seats in a local engineering college and had tried to put pungganaama on their foreheads. This had terribly irked the three students as he was not ready to return the money and hence they had stormed his house. After sometime the police appeared and took both the parties to the police station. I very clearly remember how he tried to put a brave front and tried to brag about his political connections et al. It was pathetic. This incident also appeared in the papers then
“Oorige obbha gowda avanighe obbha shaanbhoga” andhahaage devegowdarige Datta.
FYI before joining gowda as his speech writer he was running SSLC tutorials. Uneducated swindlers can be recognised immediately it takes a while to unearth wily, unscrupulous educated swindlers. All this natak about sitting on the floor does not pass muster
Are you by any chance related to this Datta.If so I dont blame your bhakthi, after all it is human nature to wax eloquent about near and dear ones who are bidding for power.
Yeano nimma baylekaalu bayisikollo prayathna maadodhralli nimma tappeynilla bidi!!!!
King of the hill, please don’t indulge in personal attacks or insults. Everyone here has a right to an opinion or writing in a certain style when making a point. Be a better man and prove that you are indeed King of the Hill, not over the hill.
Yen Doctre, your heroes’ true colors are coming out on Churumuri !!!
CHEDDI RAP haaduva janarige yella CHEDDIMAYA.
kuvempu avara saalu jnapisikolli,
HOTTEYA KICCHIGE KANNER SURISU
OTTIGE BAALUVA TERADALI HARASU.
devegowda is a classic example of human endurance ,intelligence leading to success.
A T RAMASWAMY REPORT SHOWS ALL PARTIES ,RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS HAVE INDULGED IN LAND GRABBING—THEN WHY SINGLE OUT DEVEGOWDA AND KUMARASWAMY.
@Vibudhi,
You seem to have offended for calling you moron for your gem of Wisdom:”Hassan is a mohammedan name. All such names belong to Pakistan and not Karnataka” What twisted logic? as if all Muslim live in Pakistan. Have you seen any Muslim neighbour?
What kind of Loony you are claim your Devious mind as “certain style”, “opinion” and what “making a point”. In which world you live?
Doctre –
“Devegowda is a classic example of human endurance ,intelligence leading to success”.
Dayavittu gowdra bakthi svalpa kammi madi, aathi aithu.
King of Hillybillies, you are a most amusing person :-)
aadre namma haasana muslim name anno misconception yaake. namma Haasanada origin below mention maadideeni, swalpa voedikolli.
idakkae haeloedu kannadada placesgalige kannada namesae idabaeku antha.
Ramegowda Hassan avare – nimma hesaranna pleese ramegowda haasana antha madkolri. yaarigoo confusion aagalla.
http://www.karnatakatourism.com/south/hassan/index.htm
The place is called Hassan after the Goddess “Hasanamba”, the smiling Goddess, presiding deity of the town. The temple of Hasanamba will be opened only once in a year about a week, during the second Ashwayuja (October). A big Jatra(shandi or fair) will be held on this occasion.
yes i think yedi is lingayat he will get is votes and sadananada gowda can do magic with vokaliggas and if m.p.prakash joins means he will get kurba votes i think victory is for BJP no doubt but congress already its losing its face in all the states i think next c.m. will be yedi no doubt
which Party Is Going To Win, Which Candidate Is Going To Win In Karnataka Election The 100% Pridiction From K.P.Astrology The Only Way
To Find Out The Exact Pridiction You Have To Do Close Your Eyes And Think About Your Favourite God And Choose A Number From {01 To 249}
Tell One Number And Ask Your Question You Will Get 100% Right Answer
Cong will win ………………………………as Mr. Prakash joind and our respected Krishna Sir will lead the team congress……..
Congress will WIN with Majority……………………………Jai Congress
Mr. Vital Potli, you must be one of those who enjoyed the “yenjalu” of your master Datta and now critisizing as if you are equal to him. You can never stand equal to him. Forget about talking useless thing. If you are capable, show it the “Master way”. tHE GUTS OF A MASTER. You also very well know who made him to face all those tough days. Its “chaddis” like you. Tell us how much you have looted from Master. We know who can talk like this. Are you a “chaddi”.
Let us give a chance to those who have not ruled so far and get fooled by them also.
Atleast for this time, Karnatak should see a stable govt. JD(s) should be taught a lesson by the people for their mis-governance and briniging the state politics to the ever worst situation.
Yep, BJP should have given a chance, but cant be given a chance blindly. Let their leaders first show, atleast, they rule their party properly… before bidding for the state ruling. They proved that they can do anything and go any low level for the sake of power….
And the last option is Congress. If they want to come to power, they need to streamline their party and agenda. Last couple of years all parties agenda is pin pointing other parties… like the bufello’s laughing at the front bufello seeing it’s ass.
S M Krishna is welcome to lead the state. The only leader who is capable to give a stable goverment in Karnataka at the moment…. in all parties..
BJP and Congress are locked in a do or die battle. BJP and congress will share seats from cities and BJP will hold its sway in North Karnataka. What will the BJP effect be in mysore region and votes taken by BSP from congress will hold the major part in this election. If ananthkumar and Yedi bury their differences and stand together i think bjp has a good chance. If congress cannot form the government we will see atleast 15 spits in it. If it forms a government then all will be together whether they like it or not.
Listen to me friends. The indications of our Kanataka political split is the photo finish of everyone’s family attitude in every circle of people life. As you all aware, the traditional people until 1985 were voting for Congress, which stood as a basic valued party As we progressed towards better education and upliftment in lifestyle, we have started looking at fancy things in life and aspried for change in every sphere. With the traditional and joint families coming out to enjoy these facilities, the tradition has broken and lead way to dis agreement and back biting leading to compromise by third party. This way the entry of third party like Janata Paksha or later JD(S) and JD (X) emerged with internal bickerings in individuals. Taken oppotunity of such internal bickers, the BJP came as a GOD SENT and made a political in roads in Karnataka. However, with people of humbleness, loyalty, mind clarity paved wave to BJP and stood as a strong alternative to CONGRESS.
Everyone will agree with me that there is disagreement in each one family for share of wealth, power, property, and whatsoever of material possession. There are back biters and aggrasive individuals in each family who whave ruised the very culture of joint family and good enverionment. With this scenerio in each family running across the country, how one can expect cordiality, openess, frankness whatever you call and refer in this present context. There are people for political hunger, property hunger, blood hunger, wealth amass hunger and have given their morals to wind.
With these developing scenerio either the Congress, the BJP or the JDS or for that matter the BSP (who are trying their hands in consoling people with present scenerio), will not come into power with majority. None of the people are honest to themselves or to their consciousness. The so called educated class reamin silent and do not caste their vote The middle class will castte their vote for the purpose of fulfilling the oblication of EPIC and fun. The lower class and farmer class has advantage of political blessings either direct or indirect andwill definitely vote for their party of their “reserved” choice.
It is not now the real issue of political parties whether the BJP, Congress, JD(S) or BSP people need but it is the individual who can fuel the spirity of every individual aspirants who would talke their ego further more to spoil the very culture of unity. Under these circumstances, the majority will not be forthcoming to each parties. The election commissioner will have to again exercise their wordings for another round of election, after which the real issue of clean political parties may emerge as BJP, the gainer and BSP making inward roads into political stream in karnataka.
Remember, friends the JD (S) and DG clan will not come anywhere in this election and they may lose majority ofthe seats for the open betrayal they
have done to then people of Karnataka as one of the foremost political drama company of India. Enough drama we have seen which have shaken the emotional charisma of each individuals.