The announcement of the dates for the assembly elections in Karnataka at once removes the political uncertainty in the air and reopens the evergreen question: who will win this time round? Will it be a decisive verdict this time unlike in 2004, or is it going to be a fractured verdict once again, as predicted by H.D. Deve Gowda? Does the BJP have the strength and stamina to not only retain its tally of 79 but add significantly to it, to come to power on its own? Or, will the Congress, kicking and screaming, once again find itself having to share the spoils with the Janata Dal (Secular)?
What are the three key issues on which this election will be decided? Is inflation and price rise likely to play a role? Will voters remember the “worst-ever betrayal” of the BJP by the JDS? Will the fact that the assembly polls are being held separately from the Lok Sabha elections change situation? Will S.M. Krishna‘s return to active politics along with the good rains help the Congress? Will the farm loan writeoff in the Union budget, along with the Congress’ promises of rice at Rs 2 a kilogram and colour TVs play a role? Will Arun Jaitely be able to replay his Gujarat magic for B.S. Yediyurappa? Will the BSP play spoilsport?
What is the final tally likely to be?
Read what you said in November: CHURUMURI POLL: Who will win the next election?
churumuri 
Because of betrayal factor, BJP will improve its number. But it may not be sufficient to win a majority.
JD (S) will be routed, losing seats to BJP. Congress may marginally increase its seats not because of free colour TV, Rs 2 per kg rice, 3% loan melas, free housing etc. People are bright enough to know that these things do not last and also these are gimmicks. This is good only for print media to discuss and criticize. It is a surprise why they have not thought of giving money to those who use free electricity. They also could have thought of giving motor bikes for college going girls after giving cycles.
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It will be a chitranna (sammishra) politics this time too with HDD, Bangari, sidya etc flexing thier muscle!! :p
In future i feel karnataka politics is going to be like this only….
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I agree. It’ll be a Burzi government this time also. Karnataka is better off with central rule till these jokers grow up.
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A party that can promise / give more lollipops, will win. The party which comes out with its manifesto first, with lots of perks will come through as the others cannot repeat the same. “The party with money from the centre should come through”. Our voters can be fooled easily. Give them 30 kg of rice and free TV, and increase the bus fare by 10ps, oil price by 100ps, vegetables by 10ps and so on and give a gift in one hand and take it back in the other hand with interest. It is only public money that is spent in all these perks. The political party does not pay for it. The Voters are fooling them self.
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Hung assembly: Horse-trading, cat-fights and dog days just round the corner for KA. It’s a real zoo out there…
Nagesh
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It hardly matters who wins…. the common man is the loser either way !
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Congress’ winning chances are now increased because of the OBC reservation issue.
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I wish Mr. Kannadiga and Ms. Kannadati win this time at least :) I wish it becomes a real sweep too..
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The question is how many bloggers will go out in the sun and vote! If the bloggers over here represent Kannadigas, a big majority seems to hate every single polititians (except few who are Gowda’s Chaprasis!). What will happen of the state?!!
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and they are promising free colour TV distribution. What non-sense?
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I think, HDD / HDK will be the king makers again with 25-30 seats.
BJP should not be allowed to come to power, If at all they make it, then it will be difficult to Control the Bellary Mine owners like Janardhan Reddy.
These Reddy’s won’t hesitate to sell Vidhana soudha for their personal gains.
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Most likely it will be a chow chow baath again, but hopefully the parties will learn from this experience. We went through the same phase at the national level before we got used to coalitions.
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It has long been a dream of mine to live in free government housing, receiving free food and health care, and spending money. Yes, a color TV would be an added bonus. I will also need free transportaion locally in airconditioned buses and nationally by plane. Don’t anyone preach to me about the sacredness of my vote. I will vote for anybody who will give me these things even for a short while, in a way like HDK making BJP’s desire for power come true for twenty months. Apre moi le deluge.
Gandhi said: “Be self-reliant.” Nehru said: “Be industrious.” The two never could understand the real needs of my people: Eat and sleep, doing whatever you choose to do in between. The time is ripe for repairing those leaders’ vision. Glory be to our political parties which have taken on the task of undoing the wrongs of MG and JN.
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Congress will win slim majority. And they will grab the dissidents and opps from JD(S), BSP, SP and BJP. No doubt about horse trading………………
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In the Congress advt. today it is stated in Kannada that loan 3% will be given for KurisaagaaNedaararu. The persons who prepared this advertisement donot know the difference between SAAKANE and SaagaNe. The first means transportaation , the second means rearing. There is a committee to look after this with veery highly intellectual persons. This may be a very minor mistake as far as Congress is concern. It reflects their culture. Jai KannaDambe!
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My only hope is…the ‘human waste’ HDD’s party loses big time so they don’t get another chance to sh** in public as they did twice shamelessly to embarrass all the Kanndigas.
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Isnt it the other way round Satyanna- the first that is SaaKane is rearing and the second that is SaaGane is transportation. I am sure this is a small matter as far as you are concerned:)
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Well, the software engineers can create a swing if they wish to. Now, we talk the campaign to Internet. There are 10,000 techies in each constituency in Bangalore.
A swing of 2000 votes can change the scene in each constituency.
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Guys
the poll topic was who will win the election, 90% of the responses are far from addressing that question. We have had umpteen topics about the issues you guys are writing about. Lets talk some serious numbers. There have been loan waivers, mandal and reservation issues in the past and none of these helped the parties, because people dont vote on such lines, though politicians think they do. VP Singh government was the most glaring example when they lost after mandal and loan waivers.
From my analysis with past performances and vote share trends in each seat, My take is the following
BJP- 84 assured
Congress-36 assured
Janata Dal (S)-12 assured
Janata Dal (U)-2 assured
IND and BSP-3 assured
Unpredictable (seats which dont show any trend)-44
Tossup (seats fought on very close margins)-43
This is my take, i can list the constituency list also with predictions, but thats too long. If anyone wants that then you can contact me.
I am like 75% sure about these predictions. Guys dont just blast these numbers, I have put like 3 months of statistical analysis into these predictions, analyzing each seat with the vote share and party trend.
But any valuable suggestions to improve the numbers will be greatly appreciated. Most importantly anyone with ideas on vote share to seat share conversion.
Murali
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Raja yaare aadroo raagi beesodu thaplilla anno gaade gottilve? Yaar bandre yenanthe, nam systemalli yenadru sudharane aaguthye swami….
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I think this time it will be BJP which will rule .
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The choice before the electorate is simple. Who among the three are least detestable. For none of them has any positive points to offer. They compete with each other in negative records only.
Secondly, whether the selfstyled intellectuals who are adept in giving advice will condescend to go out of their safe a/c environment and cast vote.
Democracy in this country has thrived mainly because of the unstinted faith in the system by the illclad, half starving illiterate masses who never fail to vote, come what may and not by the intellectuals and the urbanites, who talk eloquent about democracy but are reluctant to go and cast votes.
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Nobody loves a loser. Though BJP won most number of seats it was a loser. If it continues its cry-baby act it is going to loose badly.
The JDS will win the same number of seats as it won lost time, because of its die hard supporters.
Congress and BJP will switch their last election tally.
So Congress being the party with highest number of seats will buy out most of the JDS except the Mannina Maga & familyas they are too costly to be bought. Thus we will have a congress rule this time.
I feel for poor Yeddi, but not to the point of voting him
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babuds,
you seem like a political novice, look at the eci website and check how many seats your die hard jd(s) supporters gave it in 1999. even less than what they had in 2004. i will surprised if jd(s) gets more than 20 seats.
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I like Boring J’s comment. Aaru hithavaru ninage ee moovarolage?
Who is the naari? the dharuni? the wealthy?–equivalents of the three parties?
In a state where the locals and the governor seem to be equally corrupt and inept, what is our choice?
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Naari – Sonia
Dhaaruni – Mannina Maga
Wealthy (Bahudhanada Siri) – Siridaavare
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Murali,
tell me a bit more about your methodology please.
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Hey Aruna,
Here is what i did. I took the pdf file results from 1989 to 2004 for the 4 elections and put everything in a excel file with the party’s vote share in each election. With this you can clearly see some trends in many seats. For example there are some constituencies where people vote for the same party, same candidate and almost same vote share. I classify such seats as a sure win for that party. you can evolve out many such trends once you look at numbers closely. Go to http://www.eci.gov.in Under the past elections tab, you will find a link called election analysis, got to assembly election and then to karnataka. It is very well organised for each seat. There you can also see through some black sheep who keep switching parties. In seats where such trading happens, i classify them as unpredictable. There are also some seats where INC, BJP and the JD(S) are all close to 30% vote share and just win by a margin of 2% votes, i call those tossups. Tossups can even occur in cases where just 2 parties are involved and both have votes shares close to 45%.
To make the analysis a bit easier, i divided the constituencies under (North, Central, Coastal, Bangalore and South Karnataka). One primary reason is the growing influence of the sangh in north and coastal and bit of central karnataka. In fact coastal is very much their stronghold. So this helps gauge the seat.
In excel you can easily write a program to say for example “number of seats where the party has won 3 times in a row”, “number of seats where the party has won alternatively indicating anti-incumbency”. Again that will give an overall picture. But best is to just scroll each seat look at the candidates over the years, the vote share over the years, consider the local factors now and the geography and you should be able to predict reasonably in most cases.
I hope this helps.
Murali
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Shastrigale–
Nimma theekshna vidambanaathmaka barahagalannu oduthiruththene.
“Siridaavare” andare artha aagalilla.
Vandanegalu.
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ಪುಲಿಕೇಶಿಯವರೆ,
ಸಿರಿದಾವರೆ – ಕಮಲನಾಭನ ಪತ್ನಿ – ಕಮಲಪ್ರಾಯೆ ಲಕುಮಿ – ಸಿರಿದೇವಿ – ಸಂಪತ್ತು – ಖನಿಜ ಸಿರಿ – ಬಳ್ಳಾರಿ ಗಣಿ
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Shaasthrigalige vandanegalu. I traveled to Gadagu from Bengaluru a few months ago through Hosapete. Kannadammana hotte bageyo reethi nodi khedavaayithu. Eega aa raakshsara saradi?
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pulikeshiyavare,
siridaavare – kamalanaabhana patni – kamalapraaye lakumi – siridEvi – sampattu – khanijasiri – bellary gaNi.
saakshararella matha needidhare raakshasara samhaara sulabha.
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Muralis recipe for discerning the trend is more useful for the penpushers, who style themselves as election analysts. But alas they dont know it and they dont understand it. And their election analysis is nothing different from what street astrologer would predict with the help of a parrot
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I hope BJP comes to power. They are good for India. The brought in a lot of smart people like Abdul Kalam who is a national role model. Don’t agree with their HIndutva agenda- they should keep hands off of writing history–leave that for scholars–hopefully they will be able to continue the projects that came to a stall when Congress took power the the leftist coalition. They are good for India. Not Indian but I like the BJP.
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As long as we are tied up in the nexus of jaathi and money, the word “democracy” has no meaning. Let all the candidates repudiate their jaathi support and indicate the source of their election financing. Let there come a time when every Kannadiga becomes information hungry and traverses the Net and the media.
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boring journalist
just cool it. I have done this for close to 2 years and my predictions with the assembly elections in the last 2 years have been pretty decent. just because the numbers dont go along with your expectations, dont bite on it. mark these numbers and verify them when the elections are over.
Murali
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Indians need a benign dictator, they need to start to be angry that the government does nothing for the country. As much as I do not like the Hindutva ideology, the BJP is the only party that had some strategic sense for India–their projects were stopped when Congress came to power. Congress has no vision for the country–at least the BJP was doing something-such as building national highways and connecting all the rivers for irrigation. How is there democracy when people like Arjun Singh and Sonia Gandhi have so much influence? People only get what they choose to elect. Funny that they seem to debate reservations in their Universites–how about making compulsory education through high school for everyone–how about making that a start? If Indians continue to elect stupid leaders then what McCaulay said will be true–that Indians are congenitally incapable of self-rule. I was very interested by the progress being make by INdia you heard in the papers, but it is all hype and no substance–you have swathes of illiterate people electing people that have no vision for the country.
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jds—–60
bjp——–70
congress—–55
others——–remaning
once again gowda become a kingmaker in karanatakaaaaaaaaaaaa.
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kumarannaniga vote madi karanataka munde thani……..
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HD dewa Gowda will not cross double digit.
this time more independents in assembly.
lokely 60% congress will form the govt with ehlp of independents.
BJP will sit this time active opposition…. up to another 3years.
after infight congress there is a public election in 2011… it is sure…
what our friends feeling
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