Bangalore-based political analyst Sandeep Shastri in The Indian Express:
Many would argue that the Karnataka election in May will be a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. But it would be politically naive to write off the Janata Dal (S) so early in the race.
Traditionally the state has been divided into five regions. The nature of political competition varies across these regions.
# In Mumbai-Karnataka it appears more or less a straight fight between the BJP and Congress. The BJP hopes to build on its 2004 performance here while the Congress is keen to retrieve lost ground. The powerful Lingayat community has considerable influence here.
# The Hyderabad-Karnataka region has traditionally been a Congress citadel. The JD(S) registered spectacular wins here the last time around. This is the region where the BJP is the weakest. While the Lingayat community wields some influence in the region, the Other Backward Castes and the tribals have a sizeable presence.
# The Central Karnataka region will once again largely see a straight fight between the Congress and BJP. The BJP did well in pockets in this region in the last election.
# The Coastal Karnataka region, too, will see the Congress and BJP slugging it out. The relative importance of this region has declined with a reduction in the seats after delimitation.
# The Old Mysore region accounts for the bulk of the seats in the state. The fight here is not triangular but rather between any two of the three major contestants in a mind-boggling array of combinations. Each party has its strong zones of influence here….
If we thus step into the regions we notice the bi-polar nature of the contest which assumes a triangular complexion only when it is extrapolated across the state.
Read the full article here: How many corners in Karnataka?
There is a time period even for fractured verdicts. The people have seen all the permutations and combinations, except the impossible partnership of Congress-BJP. In popular memory and perception, JD-S is the villain. Gowda will not get the opportunity to be king-maker. BJP’s pathetic plight is too fresh in everybody’s minds. But there will be no sympathy either as a “weakling'” image has also stuck to the party. So, Congress will probably make it with majority. There will be no bipolar or triangular elements when one looks at the big picture.
LikeLike
just a small nitpick, there is no such as mumbai-karnataka, bombay-karnataka yes.
LikeLike
When i read this last week, dint find this article of much significance..too open ended i thought
TS – Your comment was not a nit picking..analyts have to get such details right..
LikeLike
BJP has sold its tickets for Money. Instead of fielding the Winning cadidates, they have resorted from Money powered candidates.
It seems that yeddi and ananth has made crores of rupees already.
So, BJP Chances of reacing 100 seats seems to be very difficult.
LikeLike
Here is what I read from the piece.
1. Mumbai-Karnataka: BJP and Congress
2. Hyderabad-Karnataka: BJP, Congress and JDS
3. Central Karnataka: BJP and Congress
4. Coastal Karnataka: BJP and Congress
5. Old Mysore: BJP/Congress or Congress/JDS or JDS/BJP
I am prostrating before my computer at the brilliance of this analysis.
LikeLike
An interesting fallout of the delimitation exercise could be that some candidates could be campaigning in areas that do not fall under their consituencies.
LikeLike
i expected a clearer, more incisive and insightful analysis from you Dr Shastri sir…..!
LikeLike