The first pre-poll survey in Karnataka is predicting a slim, significant and even surprising majority for the Congress in the 2008 Assembly elections, and a dip for both the BJP and the JDS. Asked who they would vote for “if the election were held tomorrow”, the survey indicates that the Congress will end up with 114 seats (up 49 over its 2004 tally) and the BJP with 60 (down 19). The JDS will win 37 seats (down 21).
The survey has been conducted for the television channel CNN-IBN in collaboration with Deccan Herald by Yogendra Yadav and team of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The pre-poll survey was done in 75 constituencies with a sample size of a little over 5,000.
The poll predicts a four per cent swing in favour of the Congress and a minor one per cent swing against the BJP. The Congress will secure 39 per cent of the popular vote, with the BJP securing 28 per cent and the JD (S) securing 20 per cent votes. The BSP will get only two per cent of the votes.
Old Mysore: Keen race among all three parties
Bangalore: Congress comfortable lead over BJP and JDS.
Hyderabad-Karnatak: JDS recedes, Congress leaps ahead of JDS.
Bombay-Karnatak: BJP expands lead over Congress.
Central Karnataka: Congress ahead of BJP in triangular race.
Coastal Karnataka: Congress overtaking BJP in two-horse race.
***
MOST PREFERRED CHOICE FOR NEXT CHIEF MINISTER
B.S. Yediyurappa: 27 per cent
H.D. Kumaraswamy: 22 per cent
S.M. Krishna: 16 per cent
Mallikarjuna Kharge: 5 per cent
Dharam Singh: 4 per cent
Siddaramaiah: 3 per cent
***
BEST CHIEF MINISTER IN LAST 10 YEARS
H.D. Kumaraswamy: 35 per cent
S.M. Krishna: 24 per cent
Dharam Singh: 14 per cent
B.S. Yediyurappa: 9 per cent
***
WILL BJP BENEFIT FROM A SYMPATHY WAVE?
24 per cent say BJP unfairly denied right to form government
35 per cent JDS unjustified in withdrawing support to BJP
23 per cent say BJP was not fit to run the government
39 per cent don’t know/ cant say
***
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IN ELECTIONS
Lack of basic facilities, infrastructure: 38 per cent
Farmers’ condition: 21 per cent
Instability of government: 11 per cent
Corruption: 8 per cent
Other issues: 10 per cent
***
HOW THE MAJOR COMMUNITIES ARE VOTING
Upper social bloc: Congress 34 per cent, BJP 33 per cent, JDS 31 per cent
Lower social bloc: Congress 54 per cent, BJP 18 per cent, JDS 18 per cent
35 per cent Vokakaligas support Congress, 18 per cent Vokkaligas support BJP
51 per cent Linagyats support BJP
churumuri 
Polls said HDK was best CM in 10 years? Good Lord.
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moovattEL seat saaku. amel ide oor habba.
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Is this the same CNN IBN whose pre poll survey for UP had gone horribly wrong?
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WILL BJP BENEFIT FROM A SYMPATHY WAVE?
24 per cent say BJP unfairly denied right to form government
35 per cent JDS unjustified in withdrawing support to BJP
23 per cent say BJP was not fit to run the government
39 per cent don’t know/ cant say
Total = 121%.
Well…
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Well obviously then BSP is going to form the Government.
If I had a paise for every opinion poll…
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You can prove anything with Statistics including why the statistics went horribly wrong!!! Is CNN-IBN a synonym for “Foot in the mouth” ??
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Is this the way Rajedeep is repaying congress for the padmabhushan or whatever he was nominated for…cookup a poll in favour of congress in the state.
:)
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*** this is the same Yogendra Yadav who willfully manipulated the Gujarat assembly election predictions to help the Congress.
*** the survey sample is not conclusive — some 5124 persons only.
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Opinion polls and exit polls nowadays can be manipulated. the questions may be framed keeping the clients interest in view. One has to take all these predictions with a pinch of salt. The sampling is too low to give an representative character to the opinions expressed
My own feeling is that the BJP may scrape through , with Congress following suit, with Devegowda being denied the chance of fishing in troubled waters of a hung verdict.
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The opinions of around 5000 people will not perspects the whole constituency. As per the present political situation, no single party would achieve full majority . Leading from front BJP will get around 90 seats ,cong around 70 and JDS around30.
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This is just a survey, not a forecast and should be treated as such. Based on this there seems to be some improvement for the Congress and for the BJP the sympathy factor might not translate into seats. Beyond that one has to take all other facts with a huge helping of uppu, huli and khaara as one does not know how the sample for the survey was taken and if it was biased.
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How the hell can HDKS be the best CM last ten years! That’s bull.
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The survey methods are no good to actually get good indicators. Surveys should instead look at statistics like
1) how many goondas are contracted to which political party
2) how much of arrack,sarees,etc are being effectively distributed by whom
3) how well planned and effective the contracted goondas are to deliver the voters to the booth.
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Hey just relax! This was the survey group deployed by the Congress.
Survey groups by JDS and BJP are just around the corner:-)
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Only 8% per cent of those surveyed are bothered by the issue of corruption?
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why are you surprised?
50% water connections in mysore faulty/nonexistant.
area greater than the size of mysore encroached in bangalore.
in social circles people discuss 50-50 black/white wrt registration and valuation of sites/buildings openly and with pride.
very high percentage of houses in violation of byelaws.
cant really say how many driving licenses are genuine test based.
list goes on…
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Yogendra yadav a stooge of the congress.Rajdeep is the higgest hypocrite in independent india.Deccan herald will stoop to any level .Congress has funded this 5124 sample.
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MOST PREFERRED CHOICE FOR NEXT CHIEF MINISTER
B.S. Yediyurappa: 27 per cent
H.D. Kumaraswamy: 22 per cent
S.M. Krishna: 16 per cent
So there was no option for Mallikarjuna Kharge who is being shown by Congress as the next CM.
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Vokkaligas are sensing a deep insult if BJP is choosen to power.So I am sensing a wave of uncomfortness among vokkaligas and although they are not supporting JDS openly chances are that vokkaligas will vote out completly in favour of JDS than congress.
vokkaligas are a dominant community in 95 constiuentcy and are know to be highly politically consciouss.
I bet a sure 45+ seats for them and a no majority situation in karnataka this time.
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Yogendra Yadav and his predictions have no credibility.
more points:
1) I am very concerned when one claims to have a sample size of 5000 and can extra-polate their views as the views of entire state.
2) take these choices as examples –
a) 24 per cent say BJP unfairly denied right to form government
b) 35 per cent JDS unjustified in withdrawing support to BJP
(a) also means JDS unfairly denied BJP to form the government, doesnt it?
I dont know why deccan herald is putting its credibility (whatever is left) on the line here.
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But one thing is sure,if there is a hung assembly with JDS playing a major role in it,then it will indicate the end of yeddi’s political career.
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The survey may be wrong, but it does send out a strong signal to BJP to stop its bloody infighting. If at all there is a chance for this party to come to power, it will be this election. From the time the govt fell, BJP has done nothing but cribbing about the backstabbing of JDS. They had a golden opportunity to slect the right candidates for each and every single constituency and win. But look at these pitiable jokers.
Right from denying tickets to winnable candidates based on the manipulative decisions of few higher ups, case in point being Shakuntala Shetty in Dakshina kannda to Katte Balagada Satya in Basavanagudi, the duo of Ananth and Yedii have done everything to spoil the chances of BJP in the final outcome.
Even Sri Rama cannot save this party.
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What can one say of the predictions except point out to two lines mentioned in the article ” The pre-poll survey was done in 75 constituencies with a sample size of a little over 5,000″
The number of constiuencies says it all..for god’s sake survey does not makes pretentions of talking to atleast few homo-sapiens in all 224 constituencies. How can they, then apply choice of voters in 79 seats as that of all 224 ?
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No Doubt CNN-IBN poll is motivated in favour of Congress….
Fact of the matter is that our own Mr. Rajdeep Sardesai’s of MSM have now started to play the same games in Karnatka they tried to play in Gujarat elections with disastrous results……
BJP is clear leader in current situation with Congress far behind…..
But Media as it is the doormat of Congress will try it’s level best to campaign for Congress…
The best part….People can now see through this old game of Media…..
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Where is Rameshwar Thakur in that chart?
What’s his grandson’s name btw?
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I don’t know how these guys made survey. Since from 60 years, what the congress govt made and what they not made all will observed by the people. They are not like for leading the govt. They don’t have a qualified person to lead the congress. Always they are lagging behind of Ghadhi familily. They miss utilizing the MKGandhi’s effort. And moreover they are restricted to role the govt by all family members.
Karnatak is a Property of GOUDA’d?
India is a Property of …….ndhi’s…….. ?
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It is really surprising us to see the exit poll results that congress will form the government in Karnataka. I do not think it is right. Because as we knew the JDS has not handed over the power to BJP as per their earlier agreement, congress had given offer to Sri Devegouda that if you will come out from the government we will make new coalition government. This incident is still remained in the mind of people. Whenever we see the Yadiyurappa we feel very bad about the behavior of Sri Devegouda and Kumaraswamy of JDS at the time of handing over the power to BJP. Unfortunately Sri Kumarswamy lost his good name. This will definitely effect to this election. Right from the beginning congress is also trying to split the coalition government. Generally people have a feeling that this time we will give a chance to BJP. So I think this time BJP will come to Power and Sri Yadiyurappa will become the Chief Minister of Karnataka.
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There is no dearth of fools and gullibles in our state.
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I am surprised to see there are still a lot of supporters for Devegowda and his sons….BJP will win around 100 seats this time .Congress may get 75 and Gowda gets 35.May be another Gowda ministray with BJP or congress support.
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I’m not sure about the surveys being conducted (pre-poll & post-poll) regarding this weekend’s elections in Karnataka.
But be assured that it is God who places places and removes rulers and authorities and all men’s hardwork and accusations are futile in this view.
God will bring Congress back to rule in Karnataka and this is assured! Let there be no second thought about it. When God determines something, He does it because HE’s not a man to lie.
Congress is the only government which will be able to give a peaceful and stable government in the State and in the Nation.
May the One true Sovereign God of this Universe be blessed forever and ever.
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This is what my guess is.
BJP-120-140
Congress-40-60
JDS-25-30
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Dabba survey,
E IBN navaru mostly poojaari madhya kudidu survey maadirbeku,maadyamakke idda alpa swalpa maryaadenu haala maadide.
Deccan herald pakka congress anthane jana prajavaanige chippu kotti vijaya karnatakada hinde hogiddu,
Innadaru ivaru thaleli buddi itkond kelsa maadli.illa result bandu BJP govt form aadare IBN Deccan herald maadhyamadinda doora hogli
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BJP 130+
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God Lord … Who said Kumarswamy was the best CM Karnataka ever had ?? …. May be the survey was taken inside Deve Gowda’s compound !!!
And by the way , all leading newpapers and TV Channels are saying that BJP is leading as per exit poll and would emerge as the single largest party .. while congress has performed below expected and JD(S) is ranking third.
One more funny observation … under prefered CM’s list Yediurappa is on the top …. but Congress is leading .. strange isn;t it ?? !!
Also how can people prefer S M Krishna for CM when its already made public that his name would not be in the CM canditure list if Congress comes to power , the whole Karnataka knows that !!
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BJP crushed CONGRESS.. NOW WHERE IS YOUR USELESS FRAUD POLL PRE
RESULTS
CONGRES SIS WORST AND MOST USELESS PART ON EARTH
WITH IN 10 YEARS CONGRESS WILL BE OUSTED FROM ALL STATES,
DOWN WITH USELESS CONGRESS AND ITS USELESS FOLLWERS
HELLIDIRA VISHWASA KHATHAK DEVE GAUDE –
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