The first pre-poll survey in Karnataka is predicting a slim, significant and even surprising majority for the Congress in the 2008 Assembly elections, and a dip for both the BJP and the JDS. Asked who they would vote for “if the election were held tomorrow”, the survey indicates that the Congress will end up with 114 seats (up 49 over its 2004 tally) and the BJP with 60 (down 19). The JDS will win 37 seats (down 21).
The survey has been conducted for the television channel CNN-IBN in collaboration with Deccan Herald by Yogendra Yadav and team of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The pre-poll survey was done in 75 constituencies with a sample size of a little over 5,000.
The poll predicts a four per cent swing in favour of the Congress and a minor one per cent swing against the BJP. The Congress will secure 39 per cent of the popular vote, with the BJP securing 28 per cent and the JD (S) securing 20 per cent votes. The BSP will get only two per cent of the votes.
Old Mysore: Keen race among all three parties
Bangalore: Congress comfortable lead over BJP and JDS.
Hyderabad-Karnatak: JDS recedes, Congress leaps ahead of JDS.
Bombay-Karnatak: BJP expands lead over Congress.
Central Karnataka: Congress ahead of BJP in triangular race.
Coastal Karnataka: Congress overtaking BJP in two-horse race.
MOST PREFERRED CHOICE FOR NEXT CHIEF MINISTER
B.S. Yediyurappa: 27 per cent
H.D. Kumaraswamy: 22 per cent
S.M. Krishna: 16 per cent
Mallikarjuna Kharge: 5 per cent
Dharam Singh: 4 per cent
Siddaramaiah: 3 per cent
BEST CHIEF MINISTER IN LAST 10 YEARS
H.D. Kumaraswamy: 35 per cent
S.M. Krishna: 24 per cent
Dharam Singh: 14 per cent
B.S. Yediyurappa: 9 per cent
WILL BJP BENEFIT FROM A SYMPATHY WAVE?
24 per cent say BJP unfairly denied right to form government
35 per cent JDS unjustified in withdrawing support to BJP
23 per cent say BJP was not fit to run the government
39 per cent don’t know/ cant say
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IN ELECTIONS
Lack of basic facilities, infrastructure: 38 per cent
Farmers’ condition: 21 per cent
Instability of government: 11 per cent
Corruption: 8 per cent
Other issues: 10 per cent
HOW THE MAJOR COMMUNITIES ARE VOTING
Upper social bloc: Congress 34 per cent, BJP 33 per cent, JDS 31 per cent
Lower social bloc: Congress 54 per cent, BJP 18 per cent, JDS 18 per cent
35 per cent Vokakaligas support Congress, 18 per cent Vokkaligas support BJP
51 per cent Linagyats support BJP