PRITAM SENGUPTA writes from New Delhi: Is the Congress doing well by default in Karnataka, and has the BJP ‘s stock sunk deeper than the party will acknowledge?
Close on the heels of the CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald pre-poll survey that gave a slim majority to the Congress in the State, an opinion poll conducted for rival media organisations in Bangalore is said to have arrived at a similar podium finish: Congress first, BJP second, JDS third.
Significantly, the media houses for which the new poll has been conducted are closer to the BJP and JDS than to the Congress. The fieldwork for the poll using random sampling was done last weekend. The sample size was smaller than that used by CSDS for the CNN-IBN-DH survey.
The CNN-IBN-DH survey gave the Congress 114 seats, the BJP 60, and the JDS 37 (against the 2004 tally of 65, 79 and 58). The latest poll, which will be published early next week, doesn’t predict a cakewalk for the Congress, but it does suggest that the party will end up with more seats than the BJP for that all-important crown of the coalition era: “single largest party”.
“Our reading is that the Congress will end up with around 90 seats. That’s nearly 25 short of the majority, but it will leave them well-placed to dictate terms in an alliance,” a source close to the pollsters revealed.
In Bangalore, which goes to the hustings in the first phase, and where the poll dynamics have undergone a sea-change due to the redrawing of the constituencies, the new poll predicts a sweep for the Congress.
Of the 28 seats up for grabs in the capital, the new poll suggests that the Congress could walk away with as many as 16 in its kitty; 18 if it gets lucky. The BJP is expected to end up with between nine and seven seats, and the JDS three seats.
Of the 12 seats that formed Bangalore in the 2004 elections, Congress had eight, BJP three, and JDS one.
“The poll suggests that the Congress is not only holding its own in Bangalore despite the delimitation exercise, but that it seems to have established an almost 10 per cent gap with the BJP in terms of vote-share,” the source revealed.
“In some ways, holding the elections after the delimitation exercise seems to have worked for the Congress, at least in Bangalore. And it seems to be feeding off a massive 9% swing against the JDS in Bangalore.”
In the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysore area (89 seats), which votes in the first phase along with Bangalore, pollsters say the BJP is holding its own and will get around 20 seats. But the Congress is benefitting from a 6% swing against the JDS and could get around 40-45 seats.
An internal Congress poll, done before the candidates were announced by the Centre for Media Studies, had predicted a neck-and-neck race between the Congress and BJP, but the CNN-IBN-DH poll and the new poll seem to indicate that the ground has shifted somewhat.
It could shift again, of course, but will it be enough to install the BJP in power?
i think its better if congress rules us than BJP which is comming with its hinduism and hindiism flavour.I would rather allow kharge rule us than the likes of reddies who are trying to inject a rayalseema culture in karnataka.
Reddies will selll our lands(lands of karnataka) and run away back to andhra leaving karnataka in doldrums.
Probably BJP will do better if they are not out to make Karnataka into another Gujarath.
This plays right into the hands of Mr. HDG and as promised he will become the king maker again. Nobody will be able to form a govt on its own majority and oppurtunistic post-poll alliances will be the order of the day.
Such a rush for “janara seve”.
Does anyone remember India Today heaping accolades on S. M. Krishna as the country’s number one chief minister? Yet Krishna and his cohorts lost the Vidhanasabha.
Commissioned polls and articles are just that: Commissioned. Wait till the BJP wonks jump into the fray.
Will congress make Kharge to become CM if its comes to power ? No chance whatsover..just wait and see
Ishudder tothink of the prospects of Devegowda upto his game once again in case of a hung verdict.
He is the only one who is praying for fractured mandate, which gives me enough grist to go in formanipulation. In that case, we will have to be saddled with another bout of nonperforming government, with the vested interests having free field.
Actually,even i am praying for hung verdict.if at all kannada needs to be strengthened in karnataka it is possible only from likes of kumaraswamy.
I stayed my 25 years of life in belgaum .Its only from last two years we have seen kannadigas with confidence of ruling the belgaum.
I congrats kudachi for selecting a right party.For those who predict that BJP is going to sweep belgaum,wait for few shocks.JDS is going to bag few seats which anyone here will be shocked to hear.
PS: please don’t bring caste equations here as i do not belong to that caste to support JDs.
Congress position appears to be turning rosy as the first phase election is fast approaching with the prediction that it may win nearly 100 seats and may fare better as the days move closer to the second and third phase. It is unlikely that Deve Gowda family will have an opportunity to repeat the game of coalition politics, embracing and stabbing in the back. Looks, in case of fractured verdict, smaller groups other than JD (S) will play a crucial role and back Congress.
Supposing the CongRats and ChYeddis get between 90-95 seats each and the Gowda Clan get the 20-25 seats which they are focussing on (as is rumored)- Then Karnataka can safely say even God cant save it from Revanna becoming the palegara of Vidhana Soudha!
One poll in February says BJP is the overwhelming favorite to form govt.
Another one conducted by Bhakar Solomn says neck and neck fight between BJP and congress with price rise being major issue.
CNN-IBN gave an entire new twist to the bottom of pyramid theorey which was supposed to work in gujarath and predicting congress will win simple majority and price rise not a factor.
Now this poll saying congress in slight advantage.
In the middle of all inflation at highest point in 3 years is the biggest news.
Please go ahead and vote if you are staying in karnataka and let us wait until May 25th.
My gut feeling is that congress is not feeling that confident and making best efforts to have a hung assembly and try for a post election tie up with JD(S).
From the congress point of view a hung assembly or a situation which denies BJP power would be equivalent of a cricket team celebrating a draw after series of losses.
For BJP a victory would be enough momentum after Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh to taper over internal differences and attract new allies and become front runner for next lok sabha election.
Rumour mill is Kharge and Devegowda have made mutual arrangements.
Other rumour mill is BJP and BSP have made arrangements where BSP cause maximum damage to congress in return for getting deputy PM position for Mayavati in next Advani administration.
Ifs and buts. Those of you in Karnataka please go and vote. The biggest problem in our country is educated middle class donot vote.
Congress has not WON!
Why don’t you people of Karnataka think of a regional party to protect your interest. Throw away Congress, BJP, CPM and JD and have a Great Kannada movement. At least the Karnataka wealth will be in Karnataka. Support the centre from outside and get all the perks and development.
gouri satya sir, are you behind the mysore tourism channel on youtube?
if yes thank you very much.
“PU passes NOSE DIVE! 41.3% successful”.
Give free TV to all who do not have one, the examination results will improve!!!
udayavagali namma cheluva kannada nadu
devare kapadabecu namma cheluva kannada nadannu!
DMK and AIDMK are welcome to set up shop in our land as stone to the bone regional parties. Karnataka is for sale.
3 months back, when I visited Coastal Karnataka,it was only BJP….Everyone was talking about BJP and I was very sure BJP was going to win….But it looks like things got changed because of the internal fight in BJP….Congress may get almost equal number of seats as BJP.
I think congress & jd(s) co-alition govt., will be formed after election to avoid c(y)heddy’s.
Congress is better as compared to BJP. I am OK with yeddi becoming CM; But the Beallary Mining Lobby has to be prevented at any cost.
As some of the readers told above, These Reddy garus will surely spoil our land.
Alread they have spoiled the Karnataka POLITICS; If they get the complete power, thy will spoil the SOCIAL life of kannadigas.
Kumarswamy, to some extent was sucessful in controlling these Reddys(mine owners)
Lets hope CONGRESS will come to power. Lets put a check on Mining Lobby.