A new week, a new opinion poll, and a new winner! With five days to go for the first phase of the Karnataka elections, the latest pre-poll survey says the BJP is leading the race and may inch towards the majority mark in the 224-member assembly or fall just short by a few seats in a hung assembly.
The poll was conducted last week by Development and Research Services (DRS) for the newly launched television channel, INX News. Coming as it does a week after CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald poll which gave a slim majority to the Congress, the scoreline reads 1-1 in the great battle of opinion polls.
A third poll to be published later this week gives the Congress the edge.
According to DRS’ managing director G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, the BJP is likely to be tantalizingly close to a majority (with or without a simple majority) with almost the same share of the popular vote as that of the Congress. The half-way mark is 113.
“In that event, the Congress could end up with just about half of the BJP tally and with almost the same number of seats (65) it won in 2004 or even less in the 224-member assembly. The JD(S) is likely to be close behind the Congress with a tally of 30-45 seats,” Rao writes in the Mint.
The unusual poll arithmetic in Karnataka, the BJP’s stint in power, the sympathy following its ouster by the JDS, and the leadership provided by B.S. Yediyurappa are the reasons the BJP is ahead, according to the DRS-INX poll.
In the poll conducted last week, 43% voters across the state blamed the Congress for the price rise, while 26% laid the blame on the JD(S) and only 17% on the BJP. As the BJP has been harping on both the themes of betrayal and price rise, it tends to benefit from these issues.
Rao says there are three factors that could blunt the BJP’s advantage.
First, the danger of the party’s upper caste and urban supporters not turning up to vote in the scorching summer. Second, a revolt in constituencies against recent entrants and defectors. And third, the demolitation of constituencies.
Another poll published in this week’s issue of The Week magazine says it’s going to be a hung assembly. The Congress is expected to win 89-97 seats, the BJP 83-91 seats, the JDs 13-21, and others 19-27. The survey was conducted in 110 constituencies among 5,481 respondents.
Read the full article: BJP, the favoured party in Karnataka
I do not know much about other areas but according to my survey,seeing the last time results and patters of caste and popularity of current candidates
these are my prediction
Tumkur is going BJP’s way with BJP scoring atleast 4-5 seats out of 13. JDS could still brag around 3-4 seats.Congress needs to brag for 2-3 seats max.
Kolar and chikkaballapur – JDS is going to brag more seats out of 11 seats.JDS could bag a minimum of 7 seats to max 10 seats.
Mysore district is going Congress way.Congress will sweep most,JDs will be satisfied by atmost 1 seat.
Chamarajnagara will give fractuired verdict.Congress is in better position.
Hassan will go JDS way with probably exception of belur.
manday – triangle fight between Cong,JDs,raitha sangha(read srirangapattana) in some and with BJP in some.
Bangalore – big big surprise here.JDS is going to sweep most of the divided uttarahalli wards.Note that uttarahalli has divided into 8 constituentcy.Watch for those 8.JDS is going to brag minimum of 5 seats here.reason – strong presence of vokkaligas and selection of very good candidates.
Coast – BJP will sweep with stiff competation from congress.Out of 21 minimum of 11 is expected to go BJP’s way.JDs could open its account for first time.Fight between cong and BJP here.
Hyderabad karnataka – again a big surprise here. JDS is sure to bag atleast 3 seats in bidar.kashempur and mirajudheen have their say all the way.congress is likely to win the most of seats but JDS is going to make inroads here.
Central karnataka – neck to neck foght between Cong and BJP here.Highly unpredicatable.
Bombay karnataka – BJP is smiling here except belgaum which has 18 seats in it. JDs could open accounts here.ramesh kudachi is a winning horse.BJP has its say in dharwad region and bagalkot region.
totally a hung assembly from my side with Congress in top , BJp in second and JDs in third.
But what is astonishing is JDs will do better inspite of negative publicity it got.JDs in my opinion is going to get atleast 40 seats.Dont be surprised if it gets more.
so people get ready for another hung assembly
my analysis is completly based on last time result,selection of candidates and words from local area leaders.
But take my point,BJP cannot get majority in any chance.This is 100% definate.
So as per current analysis,seats distribution will be like this
Congress – 85-90
JDS – 35-45
BjP – 70-75
Independents/others – 5-10
I agree with ‘Sum kirla’. Either congree or BJP will form Govt. with JD(S) with the support of ‘Hectaracre’ Deve Gowda with tail wagging the dog again.C.M. wii be Revu.
These are my predictions.
Congress 65 / 70
BJP 110 / 115
Janata Dal 35 / 40
Others 14 / 20
Due to the delimitation of the constituencies , One cant go by pasr records.
I have taken delimitation into account.For example take doddaballapura.It was till now considered strong fort of jalappa.previosly jalappa’s son was in contest.But see this time,it has taken madhure hoBli into it and left tubugere from it.
result – JDS strong constiuency came in while jalappas native place tubugere went out.result chennigappa sweeping this time inspite of being outsider.
Like this bangalore north,JDs strong areas have been consolidated togeather.which is going to be affect congress badly.
Main reason for non performacnce of BJP is its selection of candidates.They have gone in for money which is its great mistake.
The BjP has some COMMITTED voters spread all over the state.Not so with the Father Son Party and the Party of Sychopancy.My estimate may go wrong but i have factored the presence of the BSP and also the infighting in congress which would cost the party a minimum of 20 seats.
Anybody for combo of Dharam Singh + Revanna as CM and Deputy ?
I think you are almost right. Dont think Dharam will get another term. Siddu will be kept out of the cabinet if Cong seeks JD(s) support. Anybody for a re-election within 6 months along with central elections?
Re election within 6 months is impossible.No body would like to have another election within a year.In such scenarious there will party splits for power.Parties knowing this well before will go for a colaition.
Ideally it would be
kharge + revanna combo.
“According to DRS’ managing director G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, the BJP is likely to be tantalizingly close to be a majority (with or without a simple majority) with almost the same share of the popular vote as that of the Congress. The half-way mark is 113.”
While I have had the utmost regard for the Press in Karnataka as it is one of the freest and most vocal ones even on controversial issues whether local or national … which is not to say it is not corrupt in pockets … but despite that there have been excellent instances of journalism, and barely anything comes in the way of publishing big news stories here.
However, I can’t say much the same for the use of the English language. One common error I see every time there is reporting on the breakup of the Assembly particularly, is the misuse of the word Simple majority. I’d like to take this opportunity to correct that for the benefit of any journos reading this.
SIMPLE MAJORITY: When one party/candidate obtains maximum votes in a given constituency’s (Assembly or Lok Sabha) election irrespective of whether he or she has actually garnered more than half votes, and he wins in what is called, the “first past the post” system, it is termed simple majority.
ABSOLUTE MAJORITY: On the other hand, when these elected representatives get together to form a government they must enjoy the support of atleast 50% of the house they belong to. That is termed absolute majority.
Hence, when using the term magic figure or number of seats required for government formation, the term to be used is absolute majority, NOT simple majority. These are provisions of the Indian constitution that are normally taught in high school civics.
One more point,if BSP hurts congress it is going to help JDS only in most of the cases barring Hyderabad karnataka.
But sorry mayawathi is not that famous among dalits of karnataka.Don’t even think of BSP hurting congress chance.
one more thing,no one is sure how much JDS is going to win.In fact that is the question which every one is asking.One survey say 34-40,another says mere 13-20.
But my gut feelings is around 38-40. But will this stop congress is another important question.
But while doing a survey on constituent’s i smell hands of deve gowda in rolling out or redrawing of constituent’s.Or is it a mere co incidence.I do not know.
Why we should become astrologers or psephologists or the poll surveyors who either sponsored by one party or made survey of a fe thousand voters among lakhs and the Q-A ormat will be yes or no. Let us wait for the elections nd VOTE ( not murmuring that nobody does anything) and wait for the results. I have not seen my reprsentative in my constituency Jayanagar in the last two terms not even during electioneering. This time he ran away from the constituency to a safer place (his vote pocket). This time we have only dumb or dummy candidates whose face is also not seen till this day. Worth predictions
Stop all this hangama, we do not want a hung Assembly. Let us move forward. Any party with a clear majority will do as it is not going to make any difference. Only thing will be another 224 rich people around. Just go and make it a point to VOTE. Do your job.
VOTE man VOTE, VOTE, VOTE positively VOTE!
The day the neo-nazi party comes to power in Karnataka, it will be the beginning of the end of all the people of the state are proud of. Waht are they going to bring in social backwardness and pogroms?
Just saw suvarna news.These are the highlights
1) If congress does not win more than half of 45 seats in old mysore region,this will be yet another hung assembly.
2) JDS continues to be strong at hassan,mandya,kolar,ramanagara and chikaballapura districts
3) Congress and JDS neck to neck in bangalore rural
4) BJP and Congress might share equal votes in bangalore city.
So they opined a impossible result for BJP i.e BJP has no chance of comming to majority.Congress has a slim chances of forming a government of its own.
As things standout
Congress vote share is supposed to come down from last times 35 percent.
1) Non performance of Dharam Singh govt.
2) Zero performance while in opposition( Most of Kannada newspapers said Congress in opposition was in comatose state.)
This time the trouble is BSP will increase its vote share since it is more resourcefull. It is having more candidates.
Here is my prediction.
If BSP vote share reaches 3 percent (Congress will be hard pressed to get 75 seats)
If it reaches 4 percent ( Congress will be hard pressed to get 50 seats)
If it reaches 5 percent (Congress may reach all time low of 30 seats).
As things stand out
Still in contention in Hassan, Mandya districts. Some seats in Bangalore rural. Kolar, Chickballapur, Doddaballapur and Tumkur.
May win 2 or 3 seats out of 28 in Bangalore. Anything more will be a million dollar bonus.
In north Karnataka, coastral areas, Central Karnataka may get around 7-8 seats because of local candidates. Anything more big bonus.
All pollstars are right JD(S) may not cross 25.
BSP strong presence is added bonus in Coastral areas, Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka as well as in Central Karnataka.
Would be very happy if in first phase reaches close to 40 seats out of 89.
In the next 2 phases competitive in all seats and assuming 55 percent success ratio supposed to get around 70 seats.
May be based on this logic may be close to 110 seats. Possiblity may go up to 140 based on BSP factor.
140 seats is a biggest joke.I think suresh needs to have a look at karnataka properly.
Take a bet, BJP wont cross 100.
my predictions with regard to kolar and chikkaballapura seems to be commign true.JDS is getting stronger and stroner in this region.
Dalit leader muniyappa joins JDS thus strengthining dalit votes to JDS.leaders in kolar are running towards JDS at the last moment indicates the sucess JDS is going to get in this region.