Voters in 89 constituencies in 11 districts of Karnataka go to vote tomorrow. It reveals the deep polarisation within the media as within the polity that the pre-poll surveys do not see eye to eye even marginally. While one poll says it’s 42-45 for the Congress in the first phase, another says it’s 40 for the BJP.
Opinion polls can differ, of course, because of the methodology used, the experience of the pollster, the proximity of the poll dates, etc, but can they be arriving at such diametrically opposite conclusions when professionals are polling similar sets of voters on a similar set of issues?
Clearly, our pollsters are beginning to look like ladies tailors, stitching anything to the “design” specifications and ideological inclinations of the newspaper or television channel picking up the tab.
A bit of padding here, a small tuck there. Even one size extra for “future growth”.
Where this leaves the credibility of the media and psephology in the eyes of the people, knows god.
The key problem with polls is that they only provide a macro view, a broad trend as visible from the top, as if we are sheep who all think, act and vote the same way. None of the polls have attempted a constituency-wise calibration of what is likely to happen. And, the polls seem to think that the three major parties are the only ones in the race, as if the smaller parties and independents don’t count.
churumuri.com is pleased to offer an amateur, grassroots look.
S.S. KARNADSHA and R. KANNAN toured all the eleven districts going to the polls tomorrow. They say the Congress will end up with 41, BJP 21, JDS 21, CPM 1, BSP 1, Janata Dal United 1, Sarvodaya Paksha 1, Vatal Paksha 1, Republican Party of India 1.
Among our key findings:
# It’s going to be neck-and-neck between the Congress (14) and BJP (11) for Bangalore’s 28 seats.
# It’s not going to be a washout for the JDS in the southern districts as most opinion polls seem to think.
# “Rebel Star” Ambarish might not just lose in Srirangapatna, he might end up third behind the Sarvodaya Paksha, JDS. Shobha Karandlaje could win Yeshwanthpur.
These findings may still go wrong, but at least the same allegations of urban, ivory tower, Bangalore-Mysore bias can’t be flung at us. Not only do we suggest where the parties might stand in each district, we also predict who is going to win constituency by constituency, district by district. So you can always check back to see if we were right or not, and call us names.
***
TUMKUR: JDS 5, Congress 4, BJP 2
Chikkanayakanahalli: JDS, C.B. Suresh Babu
Tiptur: JDS, B. Nanjamari
Turvekere: JDS, M.T. Krishnappa
Kunigal: JDS, D. Nagarajaiah
Tumkur city: BJP, S. Shivanna
Tumkur rural: BJP, B. Suresh Gowda
Koratagere, SC reserved: Congress, G. Parameshwar
Gubbi: JDS, S.R. Srinivas
Sira: Congress, T.B. Jayachandra
Pavagada, SC reserved: Congress Gayatri Devi
Madhugiri: Congress, K.N. Rajanna***
CHIKKABALLAPUR: Congress 4, CPM 1
Gauribidanur: Congress, N.H. Shivashankara Reddy
Bagepalli: CPM, G.V. Srirama Reddy
Chikkaballapur: Congress, Ashwathnarayana Reddy
Sidlaghatta: Congress, V. Muniyappa
Chintamani: Congress, Dr M.C. Sudhakar***
KOLAR: Congress 2, BJP 1, JDS 1, RPI 1
Srinivasapura: JDS, G.K. Venkatashiva Reddy
Mulbagal, SC reserved: JDS, Muni Anjanappa
Kolar Gold Fields, SC reserved: RPI, S. Rajendran
Bangarpet, SC reserved: BJP, B.P. Venkata Muniyappa
Kolar: Congress, K. Srinivasa Gowda
Malur: BJP, S.N. Krishnaiah Shetty***
BANGALORE: Congress 14, BJP 11, JDS 3
Yelahanka: BJP, S.R. Vishwanath
K.R. Pura: Congress, A. Krishnappa
Byatarayanpura: Congress, Krishna Byre Gowda
Yeshwanthpur: BJP, Shobha Karandlaje
Rajarajeswarinagar: BJP, M. Srinivas
Dasarahalli: Congress, K.C. Ashok
Mahalakshmi Layout: JDS, Gopalaiah
Malleswaram: Congress, M.R. Seetharam
Hebbal: BJP, Katta Subramanya Naidu
Pulakeshinagar, SC reserved: Congress, B. Prasanna Kumar
Sarvagnanagar: Congress, K.J. George
C.V. Raman Nagar, SC reserved: BJP, S. Raghu
Shivajinagar: Congress, Roshan Baig
Shantinagar: BJP, D.U. Mallikarjun
Gandhinagar: Congress, Dinesh Gundu Rao
Rajajinagar: BJP, S. Suresh Kumar
Govindarajanagar: Congress, V. Somanna
Vijayanagar: Congress, M. Krishnappa
Chamarajpet: JDS, Zameer Ahmed
Chickpet: BJP, Hemachandra Sagar
Basavangudi: Congress, K. Chandrashekar
Padmanabhanagar: JDS, M.V. Prasad Babu
BTM Layout: Congress, Ramalinga Reddy
Jayanagar: BJP, B.N. Vijaya Kumar
Mahadevpura, SC reserved: BJP, Aravind Limbavalli
Bommanahalli: Congress, Kupendra Reddy
Bangalore South: BJP, M. Krishnappa
Anekal, SC reserved: Congress, B. Gopal***
BANGALORE RURAL:JDS 2, Congress 1, BJP 1
Hosakote: BJP, B.N. Bacche Gowda
Devanahalli, SC reserved: JDS, G. Chandranna
Doddaballpur: JDS, C. Chennigappa
Nelamangala, SC reserved: Congress, Anjana Murthy***
RAMANAGARA/M: JDS 3, Congress 1
Magadi: JDS, H.C. Balakrishna
Ramanagaram: JDS, H.D. Kumaraswamy
Kanakapura: Congress, D.K. Shiva Kumar
Chennapatna: JDS, M.C. Ashwath***
MANDYA: JDS 3, Congress, 1, BJP 1, JDU 1, Sarvodaya Paksha 1
Malavalli, SC reserved: JDU, B. Somashekar
Maddur: BJP, Madhu Made Gowda
Melukote: JDS, C.S. Putta Raju
Mandya: JDS, M. Srinivas
Srirangapatna: Sarvodaya, Nanjunde Gowda
Nagamangala: JDS, N. Cheluvarayaswamy
Krishnarajpet: Congress, K.B. Chandrashekar***
HASSAN: Congress 3, JDS 3, BJP 1
Shravanabelagola: Congress, H.C. Srikantaiah
Arsikere: BJP, B N. Ravi
Belur: Congress, Y.N. Rudresh Gowda
Hassan: JDS, H.S. Prakash
Holenarsipur: JDS, H.D. Revanna
Arkalgud: Congress, A. Manju
Sakleshpur, SC reserved: JDS, H.K. Kumaraswamy***
COORG: Congress 2
Mercara: Congress, B.A. Jivijaya
Virajpet: Congress, Veena Achaiah***
MYSORE: Congress 8, BJP 3
Periyapatna: Congress, K. Venkatesh
K.R. Nagar: Congress, H. Vishwanath
Hunsur: BJP, G.T. Deve Gowda
H.D. Kote, ST reserved: Congress, Chikkanna
Nanjangud, SC reserved: Congress, V. Srinivasa Prasad
Chamundeshwari: Congress, M. Satyanarayana
Krishnaraja: BJP, S.A. Ramadas
Chamaraja: BJP, H.S. Shankarlinge Gowda
Narasimharaja: Congress, Tanveer Sait
Varuna: Congress, Siddaramaiah
T Narsipur, SC reserved: Congress, H.C. Mahadevappa***
CHAMARAJANAGAR: Congress 2, BSP 1, Vatal Paksha 1
Hanur: Congress, R. Narendra
Kollegal, SC reserved: BSP, N. Mahesh
Chamarajanagar: Vatal Paksha, Vatal Nagaraj
Gundlupet: Congress, H.S. Mahadeva Prasad
***
METHODOLOGY: How did we crunch these numbers?
1. We went to at least one constituency in each of the 11 districts.
2. We studied the voting pattern of each constituency since 1978 using Election Commission data.
3. In the case of constituencies that have been newly created or spiked due to delimitation of seats, we have examined the chunks that have moved or have been clubbed together.
4. We have looked at each contesting candidate and have drawn a winnability graph keeping local factors in mind. Aspects like personal charisma, nurturing constituency with development projects, and also party-hopping have been factored in.
5. We have cross-checked our lists with strategists of all major political parties. We have discounted their claims when they have been bombastic and accommodated them when they have been realistic.
6. We have studied the percentage of votes polled by each party and the victory margins of all seats in the 2004 election. We have given the benefit of doubt to the runner up in 2004 elections if he has lost by a thin margin and is contesting again. In some cases it is the runner up political party that gets this advantage although they have changed the candidate.
7. Due to the strict EC poll code we have given very little chance to new faces and parties entering a constituency for the first time. We believe that the process of new faces or new parties getting registered in the minds of voters has not happened.
8. We have checked the BSP factor by looking at their presence and performance in all constituencies in the 2004 elections.
9. Although there is a close contest in some constituencies we stick our head out and give only name per constituency.
churumuri 
This is awesome work..will sure check back on May 25. I admire your courage to take responsibility of this forecast.
Your prediction methodology and process seems to be realistic and the best one so far..
Cheers !
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Seems reliable except that you seem to be a bit too liberal in giving 21 to JD(S). Lets see
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S.S. KARNADSHA and R. KANNAN,
Congrats for your tremendous work.This survey looks better with preictability of candidates.But my internal feeling is that JDS is going to get much more seats than shown here.
Reason
1) I think results of Kolar and chikkaballapura will go JDS way.Atleast 6 seats will go JDS way.There is a very late shift and surprise shift in JDS way very late.The very migration of many leaders to JDs at last moment uphelds that trend.Even muniyappa a prominent dalit leader mad a walk at last moment when there were hardly 5 days for voting.what does this prove?
atleast jyothi reddy and bhaktha vatsalam is a definate winnere there.
2)JDs is highly under estimated in bangalore.many of the constituentcies are definatly not uraban at all.
ex: byatarayanapura,bommanahalli,yelahanka,raja rajeshwari nagara.
Note that they are mainly strong Vokkaliga holds.
You might have not mentioned the strong constiuents name,but i will put them here.They are
1) bytarayanapura – heavy fight between narayana swamy and krishna byre gowda
2) dasarahalli – probably toughest fight between KC ashok and andanappa
But apart from these other results looks correct.
So my preiction is
congress- 32
JDs – 29-30
BJP – 20-22
others – 6
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sorry to mention,
the results in hassan is also highly unpredictable apart from arasikere.
Either JDS can loose one more or add two more.
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lol..21 seats to JDS..you must be kidding. I just want to ask the Okkaligas what difference did the JDS do to their lives when in power. Pls don’t vote based on your caste.
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this is fantastic work…thanks
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Just wanted to know if there is much use of looking at historic data for fragmented elections these days. thats what most of these television studios psephologist do and end up with foot in the mouth on most occasions.
looking at recent television debates one just hopes that rural and semi urban voters in karnataka also have got agitated enough with the recent behaviour of political parties. Otherwise there is not much hope for the bangalore wallahs :)
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whatever, but morons like Rajendran, Vatal Nagaraj and parties like CPM and AIADMK should not enter vidhanasoudha.
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One need not agree witht he findings drawan but the methodology adopted in drawing the inference is quite commendable.
This comes in sharp contrast to the manner in which the people stylling themselves as psephologists are tryign to dish out their opinion. Most of the inference drawn has no basis except for the poltiical inclination of those who have commissioned the study. If the study is commissioned by the Congress bigwigs, it goes in favour of that party, and vice versa if it is sponsored by the BJP, it is goes their way. It is not difficult to find who is behind each of the “studies”.
These experts want to interpret the data without understanding the political profile of the constituencies, as reflected in the previous poll figures.
However this time, because of the reshuffling of the constituencies in the name of delimitation, the data from the previous poll may be taken only as indicative of the mood but may not exactly represents the opinion of the voters of the area.
What one can utmost do in such cases is to draw the picture of the districts as a whole, where the situation remains unaltered despite the reshuffling done at the lowere area.
That an effort has been made even to penetrate this situaiton deserves to be appreciated. Hats off to the duo and the effort put in by them.
made
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Yaavayaava bargaLalli maaDid ee survey na?
2. We studied the voting pattern of each constituency since 1978 using Election Commission data.
Pray tell us, where did you go in Chamaraja constituency?
Any how… this time it is very bleak for HS Shankaralingegowda because,
He is ill and has done very little outdoor campaigning and stupid measures taken by the dist. admin. hasn’t helped either. &
The new constituency includes(or has been made to include) pockets inhabited by religious minorities which benefit Vasu, the Congress candidate.
Why haven’t English papers mentioned the obligatory arrest and release of Avva Madesa (@ C. Mahadesh) the honourable corporator of Ward#32, an infamous rowdy-sheeter who has been miraculously shielded from criminal trials so far.
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Good job, much better than the CNN-IBN and DRS
A few observations
JD(S) seems to winning Mandya and congress winning Hassan… one would normally excpect he reverse
BJP had won both the seats in Coorg by some margin… Cong winning both is rather strange.
BJP seems to be the major gainer in this round followed by the Congress if we can summarize
What do you think
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Give us an idea of the total assets of all candidates you expect to win.
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Brave attempt!!
I just placed a small bet on BJP winning in Periyapatna. Wanted to wager on JD(s) in KR Nagara too but the odds was not worth the risk. As NAWN pointed out, Vasu might win by a neck.
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I have a suggestion to all, Lets predict, based on the wave we have seen, who will win in our own constituency and then collate all and see.
I belong to Tumkur city and I feel S.Shivanna from BJP can easily win for the 4th time in a row.
For a change he has done some work in past 2 years, that will help him and also caste and traditional BJP votes will work for him.
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DRS poll is much better since it has surveyed more than 12000 people just for the first phase of elections itself. The voting pattern analysis will be of least help, as believed against by Mr. Karnadsha and Mr. Kannan since the entire backdrop in which election is happening is itself different and, the delimitation of constituencies is not to be forgotten.
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Brave of churumuri to try to describe a “methodology,” however amateurish.
Without taking away from dear S.S. Karnadsha and R. Kannan’s seemingly meticulous work, what they’ve done is try to analyze without data — which is understandable given that conducting a proper survey is very expensive.
Karnadsha and Kannan have placed much value on “ear to the ground” — a method common among journalists who try to predict election outcomes in Mysore district.
But that method produces little more than speculation.
Without the prop of a proper survey — no random and stratified sample, no tests for bias, no confidence interval, no confidence level — these results must be taken with a pinch of salt.
But I enjoyed the read — even learned the official names of several crooks!
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talking of avva madesa, howz the rowdyism scene these days?
growing up it was horrible. my friend was murdered in one of those wars over something that now appears to be very trivial.
the tragedy was that the guy was a math genius and an awesome character.
he didn’t amount to much in other subjects, but math, he was the undisputed king. i am not just talking high school math. i was tracking his feats in math much after high school. he was cracking diff equations, probability, and vector math. he once told me about null spaces, and i then had no clue what he was talking about. but he was dismissive of his own abilities, budla yen maaDthiya takanDu he would say. for him other things were more important.
in high school he was once falsely accused of copying. for the rest of his days in high school he took all his tests sitting on the floor, away from the rest of the class. and this i am talking about a teenaged kid who otherwise found more relevance in chakori than in history. he loved his ravichandran and was very comfortable with his kannada. the only time he ever spoke in the class, other than when shouting answers in the maths class, was in the kannada class and that too because the teacher was gorgeous. in the subject itself he had no interest. he was not alone though, i think half of that class attained puberty listening to that padmavati teach shaakuntala. he also played a mean game of volley ball and football, but wouldnt lift a bat and had solid street creds thanks to a well maintained and yet battle scared bsa slr. he was a panTa.
he is lost. sorry for dumping my past on you guys, but years later i just cant digest the fact that such a kid was lost in a city like mysore.
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After seeing this post to day, I conducted a survey of the probable voting pattern.
55% voting
Sarvoday Paksha 20, Vatal Paksha 7, Janata Dal United 8, Congress 10,Republican Party of India 12. BJP 21, JDS 3, CPM 11, BSP 41,
All remaining seats Independents (as I am not sure about the total seats).
Jai Karnataka Mate!
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There are many faults in this prediction also.But least to say that this is the best so far.This survey is similar to one predicted by lankesh patrike.
Its advantages are
1) Takes candidates into account which no other survey does
2) Takes previous years numbers and its base into account
But disadvantages are
1) There is deep polarisation of votes on caste this time.This is not taken into account.This is not possibe to predict as people do not open their caste feelings this time.
2) again this survey is based on samples,but taken with expert advice.last moment money power cannot be neglected at any point of time.
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Without the prop of a proper survey — no random and stratified sample, no tests for bias, no confidence interval, no confidence level — these results must be taken with a pinch of salt.
even with all that it must be taken with a bucket of salt. beyond scope here. but the underlying assumptions behind the mechanics of those ‘formulas’ is far too ideal for it to work meaningfully in predicting elections here.
i think, K&K may infact do better than traditional number-walas.
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Admirable job. I don’t like what I see but I commend your effort
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Great job.The best analysis i have seen.
But will it make any difference?my answer is no.whoever comes to power nothing concrete is going to done.Without all this analysis i can confidently say another crook is going to rule us.
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I can hardly buy all the media claims of having met N no. of people and having got XYZ result. Most of the time the results presented by the media seems more like a inspired guess than actual ground-work
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There is a lot of potential to go beyond mere the number game in the methods you used.
And since you have done so much work already, it might be worth if you expanded a little about each of the candidates you have listed. Not their official resumes written in the English press, but what the local people think about each candidate. And fill in the gaps about the candidates as and when you get to know more. You know the subjective stuff we all like to discuss about our local leaders when we have nothing better to do. And this can then be filed away and may add to your repertoire when you are predicting the next elections. I guess this is similar to what the tabloids do – but since you started off so methodically and are (hopefully) more detached – it will make a real interesting read.
Good work – more much better than the ‘high-level’ numbers produced by other ‘scientific’ pollsters.
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good job guys, but i have some doubts and those are below
Chintamani-very good chance that BJP may win
KR Pura-again BJP can win here
Malleshwaram-no way congress can win here
Shivajinagar-after delimitation minorities are not big here, easy win for BJP
Basavangudi- this is a tossup it will be close
Padmanabanagar-sure that R Ashok of BJP will win here
Anekal- strong BJP seat
Madikere-very strong BJP seat
Virajpet-very strong BJP seat
Hosakote- BJP cant win this, they hardly have any base here
Devanhalli-congress may win this, not JD(S)
I also expect kanakpura and channapatna to be reverse, JD will get kanakpura and congress will get channapatna, but again they are nearby constituencies so difficult to make a good guess.
Its just my take, not sure at all.
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Dear Churumuri,
Keep your fingers crossed for this prediction to come true.
If that happens, may be you can unseat all other ‘established’ opinion pollsters; even from the national scene :-)
I have not been blessed enough to see even one of these ‘halo’ ed candidates face to face.
In any case, have no hope of seeing any of them after the election, neither as the MLA nor as the ‘also ran’ contestant.
Still irrespective of what you have predicted, I am going for the ‘traffic stop’ signal!! ( Best of the worst logic :-) )
with warm regards and best wishes
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BJP 36
Congress ( 1 ) 29
Janata Dal s 18
Others 6
Hope Churmuri puts up the tally ( stage wise ) after the results are declared on 25 th. I would host a party to anyone who is gets 85 % accuracy.
If rebel Star AMBARISH ends up 3 rd , I WILL stop posting comments in this BLOG.That is one prediction which is Wrong all the WAY.
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well if you look at the scene carefully, many of the seats here are fought on close margins and as churumuri claims “they have stuck their neck out to predict it”, i would say they have “stuck their neck out for the congress” in most of those seats. So the bottom line is, 41/89 is the max the congress can get (going by churumuri’s pro-congress tune in many posts) and 21/89 is the minimum BJP will get. So ideally i would not be surprised if in the end the tally is like 36 congress, 20 JD(S), 27 BJP and 7 for the rest. In any event this should please congress supporters as they will lead Phase 1 and should also make BJP fans smile, as in the last election out of these 89 seats BJP had only 10 (if i draw a parallel between the new seats and the old seats, 20 seats of this 89 are new, but anyway this is the weakest phase for the BJP) so 27 should be a decent number for them, anything more than that is bonus. they will hoping to repeat and probably even get a landslide in the north and coastal to reach triple figures. lets keep our fingers crossed and hopefully some party will reach 3 digits.
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Good work, Congrats, Churmuri! The feedback I have is Congress is expected to bag 10-12 seats, BJP 2-3 and JD (S) 1-2, out of the total 15 seats in Mysore and Chamarajanagar Districts. Chamaraja (Mysore) may see a close fight between former BJP MLA H.S..Shankaralinge Gowda and Vasu (Congress).
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Good work, I don’t agree with this. I agree what Murali says, Unlike in the Olden days DD was the only news channel, and it was mostly baised. But in todays media Things have changed. People watch news not from one channel, they know which party is doing and what they are into. You just can’t depend previos years voting patteren, it lot depneds on Local leaders, current situation, and the kind of support they have. I bet BJP might win most of the seats, but not sure if it can gain majority. I wish one party either BJP or Congress get clear majority instead of a fractrured mandate and give chance to the opputunistic parties like JD(S), BSP or SP.
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I am not sure how you have arrived at Mahalakshmi layout in bangalore, for Gopalaiah to win. I have seen how Narendra Babu pulls the crowd and gets the votes. I suggest to replace Narendra Babu’s Name.
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What!!!! Gopalaiah from Mahalakshmi Lay Out. Goodness me if he wins MLO is doomed. He is an all in one- land shark, rowdy , murderer. There are cases still going on in court against him for his acts commited when he was a corporator. Wishing he loses. People are better of without vermin like him. Hope the survey is wrong on this guy.
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Vitlan you are right,gopaliah has a criminal record.But unfortunatly these are the people who can gather youths very fast which are a vital force in a election.But i am not sure abut his chances.Gopaliah has been rated well by lankesh patrike also.But still i do not rate him high according to my survey.
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But even if we go by the fact that JDS ends up in 21 seats i n old mysore,then how much it is going to take.Lets assume it takes around 14 seats in hyderabad karnataka and central included,then its total tally goes up to 35.
So if BJP gets a minimum of 75 seats then its 115 seats left for Congress which it needs to grab well.
But chances are that BJP could end up in higher 90’s this time.
Main parties
BJP – 90
JDS – 35
inde – 10
congress – rest – 90
So it ultimatly leads up to BJP.if BJP underperforms then it is possible for Conress to win.
If Congress underperforms most likly it is going to loose to JDS leading to hung
If BJP performs superbly then only it has chances of winning a majaority
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Good Guss , Gopaliah k (JDS) is a good & hard worker in our area, some people not seen nearest, he is helped to many thousand poor people, like sree sahkthi snagha, vegtables vendors, auto rishkaw driver, poor families for constructing houses, Temples consturuction, many thousand others. etccccccccccccccccccc. N NUMBERS he is helped. surly win.
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election fever in our state is quite duel this time around. reason being steps taken by election commission. may be next time election commission should take up promotional activity as a priority to popularize. instead just keeping watch on spending.. it is also responsibility to make sure at least 65% and above voting. if polling is less than 50% then then will not have any credential in my view..region where only 35 to 40 voting took place which is shocking and dangerous to neighbourhood. so if this is the case shall all of us stop dreaming better tomorrow.
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I conducted a survey, and I could find only one trustworthy voter–me. Had Vatal Kannada Chaluvali Paksha contested from every constituency, I would have predicted that each candidate would win. There would be a magnificent spectacle of Nagaraj walking to his coronation accompanied by donkeys, stray dogs, buffalo to the tune of “Kuniyonu Baara, Kuniyonu Baa.”
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prakasha,
yaavdla ee sree shakthi sangha? Yean la maadthaithe vasi haeLLa?
Vegetable vendorssu, Rickshawdriverssu. poor familiessu constructing housessu. Yellindha banthla dhuDDu ivriggella kodokke?
benami sitegaLLaNNa kuLLum maadidth allthey murdergaLLaNNa maadsi ashto ishto dhuDD besaadidhray gooddu & hardworkerru aagbittno??????
sarihoithu!!!!!
gopalaiah gedhray …Sri ram govinda – MLO gathi GOOOVINDA!!!!
MLO-ge yeLLu neeru bedodh ond baaki ashte!!!!!
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I feel the exit poll predicted for B’lore city showing JDS 3 seats may not be true .Three cheers to our chief election commissioner for conducting such fair elections in the first phase . my prediction for B’lore city is BJP-17,Congress-10,JDS-1
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With such a low voter turnout in Bangalore – a record in itself – it becomes highly unpredicatable. It was infact made out very clearly that whoever wins Bangalore could very well be the next ruling party. Alas !!! They had a very good chance to make a very loud & clear choice but just let it go.
It was on a lively saturday but still could not go the Pol…. Stations. What a pity.
Sumne maneyalli kerekondu koothkollo badhulu nimma hakkannu upayogisbahudhittalvaa !!
Moreover it would have given for a better poll predictions
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how the hell will Gopaliah win in Mahalakshmi layout, when every kid there knows Narendra Babu and the developmental works he did last time.. This is flawed survey for sure..
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Tarle,
You were the first person I remembered, after reading NAWN comment on Avva Madesa, for obvious reasons. From that angle, Mysore is no paradise, is it?
As for the elections, didn’t they move entire Kuvempu Nagar from chamaraja or Krishnaraja this time around? That’s sure a HUGE dent to HSS Gowda. I am surprised he is projected to win according to your scientific stud ;)
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I think in Mysore JDS is sure to win the following seats as i have many relatives in both these constituencies.
1. K.R.Nagara – S.R.Mahesh as almost 90% of the Vokkaligas vote for him plus recently added Chuchannakatte hobli which till now always gave lead to Janata pariwar has been included to K.R.Nagara.
2. Hunsur – G.T.Deve Gowda will lose this time as he has invited the ire of Vokkaligas by joining BJP. Chikkamadu enjoys support of Nayakas one of the largest community in the constituency and most Vokkaligas vote for him.
JDS is also in strong position in the following
3. Chamraja – Hatrick Hero Shankaralinge Gowda will find it tough this time as the 5 wards which used to give lead him lead has been put to Krishnaraja and 40000 muslim votes from Narasihmaraja has been added to Chamaraja. So he is in Third position now and the fight is between Vasu(Cong) and Pratap(JDS).
K.Venkatesh(Cong) is going to lose for sure. The fight in Periyapatna is between JD(S) and BJP.
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“I think in Mysore JDS is sure to win the following seats as i have many relatives in both these constituencies.”
….true vishwamAnava
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Hats off ,more or less correct.But 2 upsets are possible.
Still the Yelahanka & Byatarayanpura might go the JDS way
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I hope your predictions are dead, dead wrong. You have offered us a roster of thugs. At least the police now cannot claim they don’t know where these malefactors are. Rowdysheet all of them.
By the way, adu “Sarvagna” nagara alla. “Sarvajna”nagara.
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In dasarahalli, andanappa is MLA no strong battle
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mandya exit pole report totally reversed. in our opinion mandya bjp, maddur congress, k.r. pet bjp, pandavapura-puttannaiah, nagamangala-congress sureshgowda.malavalli p.m. narendra swamy indipedent. this will be result. just wait 18 hours only.
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bjp government will come back. all surveys are wrong. but mathadara duddu thegedukondiddaru bhrasta rajakaranigalige vote hakilla. adu mandya zilleya ella vidhana sabha kxetragalli saabitagalide. mandyadalli ondu jd s baralla. it is my challenge.
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