PRITAM SENGUPTA writes from New Delhi: A pre-poll survey of the 66 constituencies going to the hustings in the second phase on Friday, shows a slight edge for the BJP over the Congress. But all the straws in the wind continue to be pointing towards a hung assembly in the State when votes are counted on May 25.
The survey, with a sample size of 2,500, and to be published tomorrow, says the BJP could end up with between 36-39 of the 66 seats, and the Congress getting between 20-25 seats. The JDS is predicted to get around 5-8 seats.
# If read with the exit poll conducted by NDTV-IMRB, which gave an edge for the BJP in the first phase of elections on May 10, the BJP has a tally of 67-70 seats at the end of end of the second phase of polling, the Congress 43-48, and JDS 35-38.
# If read with the exit poll conducted by Suvarna News by C-Fore, it adds up to 59-67 seats for the Congress at the end of the first two phases of the assembly elections, 60-66 for the BJP, and 25-31 for the JDS.
The findings of the pre-poll survey show a marked fall in the Congress performance from the predictions of the CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald poll, which showed the party surging ahead of the BJP in both central and coastal Karnataka.
With 69 seats up for grabs in the third and final phase, pollsters believe it could be neck and neck for the BJP and Congress, with smaller parties getting to play an important role in the formation of the next government.
If the best-case scenario for the BJP is taken into consideration, it means the party will have to bag 44 of the 69 seats going to the polls in the third phase. The Congress’ best-case scenario means the party will have to bag 47 of the 69. How likely?
Let’s wait and watch the fun. IMHO Dirty Devegowda is actually helping the BJP to win because his candidates will take away a few thousand votes in all contests. Dirty Devegowda wants to play the spoiler and he will succeed in his endeavor:)
Churumuri,
There have been blasts in Hubli court and Jaipur. So why not post an article by Gauri in support of the innocents who triggered the bomb.
I am really not sure churumuri readers will be all that interested in Gauri-ji’s take on the ‘innocents’. Hey, but I am sure it will be entertaining enough!
Awww – Please don’t blame the actions of those ‘peaceful’ groups in Hubli and Jaipur. After all, remember they are all ‘victims’ of the ‘fascist’ groups such as VHP and RSS. Let’s all vote against BJP. :)
Coming back to the poll results – So, there are still people out there voting for JD(S) in Karnataka? I’m so proud of our folks. So smart and forgiving! ;)
Was it Lenin who coined the word ‘Useful Idiots’ ? Just wondering.
With usual sceptism regarding opinion polls here are few caveats.
1) Survey results show BJP should be close to getting 80 percent of the seats. Probably after Jaipur blast it may become a reality with congress doing nothing to control terrorism in last 4 years. According to me after II phase BJP should have touched or crossed its 79 seat tally of last time.
2) All of Bombay Karnataka is still left for polling (51 seats). CNN-IBN which was wrong in all regions gave BJP the edge here. The edge may be massive enough to allow BJP to make any shortfall required for majority.
Shettre,
Useful idiots are those who pay 4 months salary as taxes but refuse to vote.
Jaipur blast shows that BJP is ineffective in controlling Terrorists. Why should we vote for them ? Do you want Karnataka to be hit also ?
Am voting for the Congress this time.
Rajasthan is ruled by BJP, so BJP supporters dont shout that BJP can control Terrorism.
Ashok, I can only laugh at you. Whose prime responsibility is to control terrorism?
There have been 21 major Islamic terror attacks in last 3 years under the UPA regime. Most of the cases, the culprits are yet to be found or the cases themselves are yet to solved. The present Home Minister Mr. Shivraj Patil is the weakest we have had. It is a shame, that we have such a na-mard home minister during such critical times of terrorism and naxalism.
Where gone the legacy of Sardar Patel?
Mr.Pragmatic, I know what BJP govt did when Parliment was attacked. MR.Vajpayee is a good poet and good speaker but nothing else. Terrorism was at its height when BJP was in power. BJP just creates hype and nothing else.
oh well, so you know what they did. And what has congress done to the culprit of Parliament attack? He should have been hanged long back. Who is delaying the punishment to the culprits?
And what’s your take on Hyderabad blasts?
What Congress is doing to the culprits of Parliment attck is shame for the entire nation. But its proven fact the if a brainless human being wants to blow himself up there by killing people near him nobody can control it. Be it a govt in Newyork, London or Delhi. How can BJP claim they can control terrorism. Its all hype to create frenzy among people but nothing else. I was a supporter of BJP before 2001 but not after that. They only speaks and shouts to get votes but wont do anyting. Rajasthan is ruled by BJP and not even it is a safer place now.
yes, terrorism cannot be easily fought with POTA or TADA as cheddis claim …. It needs more than that ….like eg:.. Strengthening Intelligence, Minority Development programs like poverty alleviation, providing modern education, etc …. which no one is thinking about.
Cheddis are so desparate for power …. trying to take advantage of gullible minds & create panic … even in times of distress … Its really pathetic to see them try such things.
Why there should be one party govt. ? Just as tehy say unity in diversity.let them share common ideas and run the state. There will always be fear in them that the govt.will fall any time if they do something beyond agreed terms.Which is good for the public. They always strive to do good work so that next time they will come to power single handedly and then LOOT !.Its good to have a cooliation govt.
@Poli Huduga
>>Minority Development programs like poverty alleviation
1. so when did poverty alleviation become a ‘minority’ development program?
poverty is there in all communities including the ‘majority’.
2. If poverty leads someone to use bombs and kill people, then half of the world would have been terrorists. Also explain Osama bin laden who is a billionaire and a terrorist.
>> providing modern education
Explain Kafeel Ahmed (was pursuing his PhD in computational fluid dynamics).
@what the F()$^
You seem to be a pacca cheddi by the way you hijacked the point I was trying to make. So let me make it explicit for you & your ilk,
1.) I made poverty alleviation in minority development context for minorities. I never said there is no poverty for majority or rather Poverty alleviation shouldnt be done for majority or dominant communities.
2.) Let me explain the way poverty alleviation/modern education works,
Leaving 20% of your population in shambles will alienate them from mainstream society, which is already happening in a big way. Their non-inclusion into mainstream will only encourage separatist ideas which is quite natural considering the number negative forces which india is facing today. My reply for Osama & kafeel examples is that, they are just a flash in the pan… you did a pretty bad generalization (I am sure you could find millions of good people in the very same catergory).
Note: I am not an authority on terrorism to put a comprehensive policy to fight terror, I am just expressing the direction of policies which I personally would like to see from governments irrespective of political parties.
@poli huduga
You are a pacca commie. Cheddis are better. At least they don’t lick Chinese asses.
Ashok and Sudhir,
you have every reason to be angry with eth BJP in Rajasthan, but I request you to please take a moment and think about where the roots come from. The way to control terrorism is to stop these elements at the national border and that is under the ineffective central government we have. State governments in India rarely have control over intelligence, they only receive inputs from the central intelligence. Gujarat is the only state which does its own security and if you ever travel there by road, you will see amount of checks they do. Parliament attacks were a shame, but after that they reacted well, implemented POTA and nothing happened after that. But here within 1 year we have had Delhi, varanasi, mumbai, jaipur, hyderbad twice, malegon, ramnagar(UP) and samjhauta. Now this is the difference, when the BJP is in power I am sure there is no way we’ll have 10 in a row like this and the home minister shivraj patil comes and says “these things happen”. I know BJP is not perfect and it is tough to completely root out terrorists from india (considering that there many local groups operating even within the country), but they did their best, count the number of civil victims and blasts we had during the NDA regime and i bet we had more than that just in the last one year of UPA regime. seeing this I would say BJP is a better bet.
Poli hudga, nobody is being sidelined, moreover they are only 13.5%, we dont sideline christians, sikhs and jains. And among those 13.5% muslims, may 40% is sidelined so that is like 5-6%. Such proportions of people are sidelined even in socially developed countries.
@Murali
I agree with you.
Govt builds a school in a village and has schemes like mid day meals to attract the students. In spite of this if some people join a madrasa what can the govt do? The solution is moderates in the Muslim community should be more vocal and proactive.
The 1st Phase polling of Karnataka Elections have been completed. There were two exit polls – the first by NDTV and other by Cfore-Kannada Prabha-Survana TV. Both predicted diametrically opposite results.
Exit polls are only effective as statistical revelations: What they reveal is suggestive and what they conceal is vital!
NDTV headlines put smiles back on the faces of BJP supporters for Bangalore
Vote Swing -4% Congress +4% BJP 0% JD(S)
What they concealed were the numbers that mattered:
Vote Share 40% Congress 35% BJP 18% JD(S)
A cursory look at the second set of numbers would immediately wipe the smiles off the faces of BJP and their supporters. A 5% vote share difference implies that it is more or less a statical deadheat. Seats can be won or lost on margins as low as 500 votes. NDTV projections just gave the BJP the benefit that coin will fall in their favor. It could be very well be the other way around
I like all of BJP shouting from roof tops to hired autos to convey” Congress failed to control terror” becoz a certain TADA & POTA was removed & this they (BJP) says is the main cause of more frequent terror attacks in Bharatha Desha.
Any school child who is “panchvi pass” will tell u on your “mukhudmele” that increase in incidents of terror is becoz of many other factors..
I have removed my chaddi and even my Kaacha lest anyone make fun of my political leanings.
Our response to bombings in Jaipur and terrorism should be Minorty Development. Give more sops to the muslims. Great Idea. For starters lets start with highly oppressed minority resident of Banshankari 2nd stage. I am talking about the recently UK returned Phd student and brother of the decesed jihadi doctor – Sabeel Ahmed. He needs to be given a ticket from Congress or even an MLC seat for starters. Lest he invokes his jihadi momeries and bomb the Bangaloreans for all the oppresion we have done to his muslim community. We hindus should also tender a public apology to Sabeel and his cousin Haneef as we were prime cause for them turning into Jehadis albeit failed and unproven. THe elder brother even sacrificied his life in UK for all the oppression they sufferend in the upper middle class locality of Banashankari 2nd stage.
Let me wear my kaacha and chaddi now.
also don’t believe these exit & opinion polls, the respondents reaction can swing & is rarely back checked by the field agency.. if one fine summer morning a “field worker” decides to skip work like most lazy indians do & help himself @ work by doing all the field work from home… the poll is doomed..
Since the random samples taken is 3000 to 5000 overall & is extra polated.. such small glitches in field work hampers the end result of the opinion polls or exit polls..
This Halka Boy seems to kaangress chEla. Pakka Sonia sycophant!
TNR for you to sympathise one particular community.
@wtf
You are indirectly saying that we lick Chinese ass…but thats not true. We are still licking their boots. We have not yet gone up till ass.
@pragmatic
I am neither a congress kallebeeja nor a Chaddi harka. I dont have my favourite political party yet. Still voting for best of the rot !
@Carrot
LOL … sad but true!
@Poli huduga
When you call someone names, be prepared to take some back. That apart, we can have rational discussions without calling each other chaddi/panche harka.
@Shambu Linga
Devru….correct aagi heLidri sir.. unfortunately, even after such dastardly act of terrorism, PM (namesake) says there is nothing lacking in our security laws and will not revive POTA. (I am not advocating that POTA should be revived but they must at least display some spine and call a spade a spade!)
Dear Buddi,
It seems, you are very new to Karntaka politics like cheddis. I bet my bottom rupee, no Kannadigas or Karnatak guy will become a Prime Miinister for 100 years (until you and die). Gowdaji showed to the world where the Karnataka is located in India map.
If he did not have principles he could not have become Chief minister of Karnataka and Prime Minister of India. He is a like a factory who manufacured tons of leaders (MLAs, MPs, CMs) from past 30 years. Please respect him as a kanddiga.
Jai Karnataka and long live Devegowdaji.
Byanna,
I have precisely the opposite regard for Dirty Devegowda!! In fact I detest Dirty Devegowda because he has lowered the dignity of Kannadigas everywhere! Yes he has shown everyone what a bunch of gullible idiots Kannadigas are to the whole world. Any way it has now been proved beyond doubt that you don’t need any principles to became a PM or a CM. I certainly admire your description of heavy tonnage leaders like Drum Singh manufactured by the fiendish mind of Dirty Devegowda. Do we need leaders who are “machine bedeeing” everywhere except in their own homes like our own SonBrother? Sorry we should disown Kannadigas like Dirty Devegowda and his sons. Kannadigas deserve better than that and I don’t know what sort of Kannadiga you are. Thanks.
@Byanna
“no Kannadigas or Karnatak guy will become a Prime Miinister for 100 years”
No need for a Kannadiga to become a PM just for the heck of it. Its better not to have a Kannadiga PM rather than have someone like Deve Gowda.
“If he did not have principles he could not have become Chief minister of Karnataka and Prime Minister of India”
Oh really?
One is Hype Hiker and another one is Biddi matta. Aste gothirodu nimge. Don’t thnik “white is all milk”.
You both seems to be young to understand politics.