An exit poll of the second phase of the elections held today conducted by NDTV says the BJP will get betweeen 32-42 seats, Congress 15-20, JDS 8-12. If the trend continues, Prannoy Roy says the BJP may be able to form the government on its own. The fieldwork for this poll was done by IMRB in 22 constituencies with a sample size of 9,447.
However, another exit poll conducted for Suvarna News, New Indian Express and Kannada Prabha, says BJP will walk away with 35 of the 66 seats which went to the polls, followed by Congress with 20, JDS with 8 seats, others 3. The exit poll was conducted by C-Fore in 50 constituencies and the sample size was around 7,000. By its reckoning, it’s going to be neck and neck between Congress and BJP.
The C-Fore poll says:
# In Hyderabad-Karnataka, of the 13 seats, the BJP will get 7 seats, Congress 3, JDS 2, others 1.
# In central Karnataka, of the 32 seats, BJP will get 14 seats, Congress will get 10, JDS 6, others 2.
# In coastal Karnataka, of the 21 seats, BJP will get 14 seats, Congress 7.
An NDTV exit poll of the 89 seats in the first phase of elections had predicted BJP will get 31 seats, JDS 30, and Congress 23. Together with the second exit poll, the BJP will end up with 63-73 seats, Congress 38-43 seats, and JDS 38-42 seats. Which means, of the 69 seats that go to the polls in the third and final phase of polling, the BJP will have to bag a minimum of 41-51 seats to form a government on its own.
A C-Fore exit poll of the 89 seats in the first phase had predicted 39-42 seats for the Congress, 24-27 for the BJP, 20-23 for the JDS. Read together, the BJP will end up with 61 seats from the first two phases, Congress with 60, and JDS with 29. Which means, of the 69 seats that go to polls in the third and final phase of polling, the BJP will have to bag a minimum of 53 and the Congress with 54 each to form a government on their own.
The goodwill and voter base gained during RK Hegde’s time now helps the Deve Gowda family. What a pity!
URA will tell his Janata friends to practice untouchability towards BJP after the elections.
I am rather confused over the conflicting and contradicting opinions being hled out by the self styled experts on the voting trends and also on the question of who will or will not be able toform the next government in Karnataka.
It looks as if all the experts have taken resort to diagnosis without taking checking the basic facts about the attitude of the voters as a whole. It looks as if they are behaving like the veterinary practitioners, who prescribe the medicine, without hearing anything from the patient concerned.
Can anybody solve the riddle of the voters mind, which are quite baffling. From the voting trends of the 1999 and 2004 elections, it looks as though the Karnataka voters is increasingly turning anti Congress. For every two voters that went to Congress in 2004, three went to the Non Congress parties – namely the BJP and the JDS. The Congress got 88 lakh votes as against 128 lakhs polled by the other two.
1. It was not as there was big erosion in the Congress base inthe election, as had been stated by some expeerts. What all the Congress lost in 2004 election was just two lakh voters. In 1999 it had received 90 lakh votes.
It did not as if major chunk of Congress voters turned away to favour either BJP or the JDS. There is also no evidence of the traditional vote bank of Congress having eroded. There was erosion to the extent of 2 lakh votes votes only. How do the experts say that thetrend has turned towards the Congress. There has been no evidence of Congress having tried to regain the lost ground.
2. In this election, there has been an increase in the electorate by 15 lakhs. By tradition, no new voter turns to Congress.
3. The advese effect that the image of JDS had taken in the recent months, is not likely tog et more voters. There are doubts whether it is able to get the votes that it has secured last time.
4. Can somebody coordinate all this and explain how they expect the anti Congress mood to go away to turn the tide in favour of Congress. the only factor which may bring additional votes to Congress, is the Siddaramaiah trouping back to Congress , there by envisaging the Kurubas turning their attention to Congress. There is a snag here. Congress has not projecte Siddaramaiah as the next Chief Minister, so as to provote all Kuruhas to rally round Congress. If Congress byc hance wins, Siddramaiah would only be a minister and cannot occupy the gaddi of the Chief Minister. Any Kuruba would get representation in any cabinet formed by theAnti Congress forces.
Lets keep our political ideology likes and dislikes apart. Lets take a dispassionate view on the basis of the voting trends, the only proven and proveable bench mark available for assessing the voting trends.
Can somebody take the trouble of clearing the cobweb of prevailing confusion?
I wish One Party comes to majority Either Congress/BJP and forms an Individual government rather dependent on opurtuistic regional parties like JD(S), SP. JD(S) should loose and people should teach Gowda and family a proper lesson.
If the results are as predicted, it will be good for Karnataka. We should give them a second term for progress.
most elections are multi-cornered in india (including this one). most seats are won by victory margins of less than 5%. it is impossible to construct a sample for a survey that catches all the different groups in their right mix – caste, religion, age, education level, economic status, rural/urban, conservative, liberal.. The opinion pollsters never explain how they construct their samples. So how do the opinion/exit pollsters pretend that they can predict anything at all? At best, they can predict any swings and the direction of such swings in favour or against some body – but not even the actual extent of such swings. Beyond that it is wild goose chase.
Pattern matching can be a much better and easier way of predicting. i will match present karnataka election to the previous two elections in bihar. first election in bihar produced a hopelessly hung assembly and thrust up ram vilas paswan as king maker. He abused that role in the name of secularism, and the next election gave a clear majority to BJP/JDU – making paswan a joker, down to 11 seats. I predict the same thing in karnataka, with gowda family going the paswan way. And ‘secularism’ of this congress/paswan/JD-S variety getting a decent burial.
Collective voting is a history in India. We are divided so much so that even within the state, people rather then thinking about the overall progress of the state, they think about the religion and communal lines only.
POlitics is not for the country anymore, it is for certain people.
BJP should be given a chance in Karnataka. UPA is a big failure in Delhi and congress have a long history of messing up the states especially under Sonia and her son. There is no leadership in congress.
BJP on the other hand is showing lots of hope.
BJP has good hold over the coastal districts.
This time they will move further west..into the bottom of the Arabian Sea. :-)
The all polls including the exit polls will go the UP way.
@ Odd man out,
surely, not the exit polls but the opinion polls of CNN IBN will go the Gujarat and UP way. And people like you and Dr. Yogendra Yadav, who hate BJP just for the heck of it, will end up with an egg on your faces.
1. look i’ll tell what happened to me while voting.I ahd made up mind to vote for congress.but on the day of votiong when standing in the que,i felt pity for L\Kumarswamy,being the only chief minister who dared to visit villages and tried to be with them. I felt coming from a rural background I should support HDK ,.hence i vor\ted for JDS. How many more like myself are there.
2. then this recent joing of BJP by ravi belegere.Is it correct on his part to identify with a single party. I want readers to comemnt.It is also rumoured all his films are financially supported by Reddys of belalry.does His action justify the rumour. ?
The big surprise in this election is the strong performance by JDS…..Everyone written off JDS and predicted only a dozen seats for them initially….Congress made a big mistake by not allowing Krishna to contest and there was a last minute erosion of Congress Vokkalinga vote towards Deve Gowda….In fact Gowda and his strategy helped BJP to get this many seats in South Karnataka….JDS will get around 55 seats and Congress may be the third with only 50 seats…..
The UPA government under the leadership of SoniaGandhi with her new friends CPIM is a Himalayam failure.The inflation had reached neck to neck with our Economic growth.The voters of Karnataka should respond against the Economic policies of our most worst PM.INFLATION IS DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO ECONOMIC GROWTH.The people want the continuation of NDA Government in the centre under the leadership of Mr.Advaniji
Recently ravi belagare was sharing a dias with Janardhana reddy in Bellary.
What’s the deal?
Also, i was surprised to see in “Hai Bangalore”, Ravi belegere is fully praising Janardhana reddy; Later after seeing him with JReddy in bellary, i realised, Ravi belegare is cosying up to Janardhana reddy.
Shame on RB who sold himself to an Outsider like JReddy.
Mr. Vishnu I support ur views but would like to make a correction. i.e central leadership not under Advani but Modi!!!!!!!!!!
As per my opinion bjp may get 100-105 seats, 80-85 seats cog, 25-28 seats jds, rest others,
to “Mr.vishnu vasudevannair”
Inflation is soaring not only in India but everywhere in the world..good that you are not seeing riots for food like happening in some developing countries. You should be greatful to Central govt that even through the crude oil in international market is making record new highs since one but in India the petrol prices have been increased only marginally(Election might be the reason for this).
My exit poll result
with a deviation of + or – 10 seats
This is the biggest mistake UPA is doing. By artificially controlling gas price, our fiscal deficit will increase and in long term people as to suffer. Only one good thing made by Congress (excuse me not Nehru parivar) but Mr great Narasimha Rao was bringing Manmohan Ji. But if you read history, congress is the biggest communal party (for ex: Not arrested Delhi imam even after supreme court order, Joining hands with Muslim League in various states, kept quiet when Pandits ran away from J&K, Killed innocent sikhs, Played a major role in partitioning) and also from governance/political side a big zero. Personally, I am fed up with Congress and anti development party CPM.
even after 100 days of taking over the power by BJP the chief ministership by Mr. yediurappa your site shows the chief minister is Mr. H D Kumara Swamy.
I am writing this after seeing your news at 930 PM news from Dubai. Mr. Yedurappa has said he will take steps top take over the goverment lands.
If possible send this email to him. Mr. Krishna has done lot of things to Karnataka as chief minsiter. But he is not able to stop his reelatives to occupy the Kagadasa Pura Lake! I have seen a statement from our CM to give details and he will do the needful. Kindly pass it on this info to him let me see from here he can do anything?