S.S. KARNADSHA and R. KANNAN write: Voters in 69 constituencies in eight districts of Karnataka will troop to the polling booths tomorrow in the third and final phase of voting in the elections to the state legislative assembly. And churumuri.com is pleased to present its third, amateur, grassroots look at how it will turn out for the parties.
Our score for the third round: BJP 32, Congress 25, JDS 11, independent 1.
Read in conjunction with our first two surveys, we are predicting, in all, 92 seats for the Congress, 84 for the BJP, and 41 for the JDS in Mandate 2008. Independents and others: 7. In a house of 224, with the halfway mark standing at 113, the State, according to us, is heading for a hung assembly.
Like in the first two surveys, here and here, one of us travelled to at least one constituency in each district (full methodology below). Unlike other opinion polls and pre-poll surveys, which only give a random seat count and do not even describe the methodology, we pinpoint the likely winners in each of the 69 constituencies.
Among our key findings in this round are:
# Team Jarkiholi—Balachandra, Satish, Ramesh—will triumph in three Belgaum constituencies.
# Actress Umashri will find it tough going in Terdal, but B.C. Patil is tipped to sneak through in Hirekerur.
# Former State BJP president Jagadish Shettar will win from Hubli-Dharwad central.
We will go wrong with some of the predictions, of course, but we will be delighted to be proved wrong and to be questioned and pilloried for it after the results are announced on May 25.
Our “hung assembly” findings are clearly in contrast to an NDTV-IMRB exit poll after the second round which says BJP could come to power, and a Suvarna News-Cfore survey, aired last night, which too hints at BJP gaining the upperhand.
BELGAUM: BJP 8, Congress 7, JDS 3
Nippani: Congress, Kakaso Pandurang Patil
Chikkodi-Sadalga: Congress, Hukkeri Prakash
Athani: BJP, Laxman Sangappa Savadi
Kagwad: BJP, Bharamgouda Alagouda Kage
Kudachi (SC): BJP, Mahendra K. Tammannavar
Raibag (SC): Congress, Omprakash S. Kanagali
Hukkeri: JDS, Umesh Vishwanath Katti
Arabhavi: JDS, Balachandra Laxmanrao Jarakiholi
Gokak: Congress, Jarkiholi Ramesh Laxmanrao
Yemkanmardi (ST): Congress, Jarkiholi Satish Laxmanrao
Belgaum North: JDS, Kudachi Ramesh Laxman
Belgaum South: BJP, Abhay Patil
Belgaum Rural: Congress, Malagi Shivputrappa Chanabasappa
Khanapur: Congress, Rafique Khatalsab Khanapuri
Kittur: BJP, Marihal Suresh Shivarudrappa
Bailhongal: BJP, Metgud Virupaxi (Jagadish) Channappa
Saundatti Yellamma: BJP, Mamani Vishwanath Chandrashekar
Ramdurg: BJP, Mahdevappa Shivalingappa Yadawad
BAGALKOT: BJP 6, JDS 1
Mudhol (SC): BJP, Govinda Karjol
Terdal: BJP, Siddu Savadi
Jamakhandi: BJP, Srikant Kulkarni
Bilgi: BJP, Murugesha Nirani
Badami: BJP, M.K. Pattanshetty
Bagalkot: JDS, P.H. Poojar
Hungund: BJP, Doddanagouda Patil
BIJAPUR: BJP 4, JDS 2, Congress 1, Independent 1
Muddebihal: JDS, Vimalabhai Deshmukh
Devar Hippargi: BJP, Basanagouda Yatnal
Basavana Bagewadi: BJP, S.K. Bellubi
Babaleshwar: Congress, M.B. Patil
Bijapur City: BJP, Appu Pattanashetty
Nagthan (SC): BJP, Vittala Katakadonda
Indi: Independent, Ravikanth Patil
Sindagi: JDS, M.C. Managoli
GULBARGA: Congress 8, JDS 3, BJP 2
Afzalpur: JDS, Tukaramagouda Patil
Jevargi: Congress, Dharam Singh
Surapur (ST): Congress, Raja Venkatappa Naik
Shahapur: JDS, Shivashekarappa Shiravala
Yadgir: Congress, A.B. Malaka Reddy
Gurmitkal: Congress, Baburao Chinchanasur
Chittapur (SC): Congress, Mallikarjuna Kharge
Sedam: Congress, Sharanaprakash Patil
Chincholi (SC): Congress, Baburao Chavan
Gulbarga Rural (SC): BJP, Revunayak Belamagi
Gulbarga South: BJP, Chandrashekara Patil
Gulbarga North: Congress, Qamarul Islam
Aland: JDS, Subhash Guttedar
BIDAR: BJP 3, Congress 2, JDS 1
Basavakalyan: BJP, Basavaraj Patil Attur
Humnabad: Congress, Rajashekar Patil
Bidar South: JDS, Bandeppa Kashempur
Bidar: Congress, Gurupadappa Nagamarapalli
Bhalki: BJP, Prakash Khandre
Aurad (SC): BJP, Prabhu Chavan
GADAG: Congress 2, BJP 1, JDS 1
Shirahatti (SC): JDS, Alkod Hanumantappa Yallappa
Gadag: Congress, H.K. Patil
Ron: Congress, Gurupadagouda Sanganagouda Patil
Nargund: BJP, C.C. Patil
DHARWAD: Congress 4, BJP 3, JDS 0
Navalgund: BJP, Shankar Patil Munenkoppa
Kundgol: Congress, Channabasappa Sathyappa Shivalli
Dharwad: Congress, Vinay Kulkarni
Hubli-Dharwad East (SC): BJP, Veerabhadrappa Halaharavi
Hubli-Dharwad Central: BJP, Jagadish Shettar
Hubli-Dharwad West: Congress, Honnalli Jabbar Khan Hayatakhan
Kalghatgi: Congress, Santosh S. Lad
HAVERI: BJP 5, Congress 1,
Hangal: BJP, Udasi Channabasappa Mahalingappa
Shiggaon: BJP, Basavaraj Bommai
Haveri (SC): BJP, Neharu Olekar
Byadgi: BJP, Patil Sureshgoudra Basalingagoudra
Hirekerur: Congress, B.C. Patil
Ranebenneur: BJP, G. Shivanna
METHODOLOGY: How did we crunch these numbers?
1. We went to at least one constituency in each of the districts going to the polls.
2. We studied the voting pattern of each constituency since 1978 using Election Commission data.
3. In the case of constituencies that have been newly created or spiked due to delimitation of seats, we have examined the chunks that have moved or have been clubbed together.
4. We have looked at each contesting candidate and have drawn a winnability graph keeping local factors in mind. Aspects like personal charisma, nurturing constituency with development projects, and also party-hopping have been factored in.
5. We have cross-checked our lists with strategists of all major political parties. We have discounted their claims when they have been bombastic and accommodated them when they have been realistic.
6. We have studied the percentage of votes polled by each party and the victory margins of all seats in the 2004 election. We have given the benefit of doubt to the runner up in 2004 elections if he has lost by a thin margin and is contesting again. In some cases it is the runner up political party that gets this advantage although they have changed the candidate.
7. Due to the strict EC poll code we have given very little chance to new faces and parties entering a constituency for the first time. We believe that the process of new faces or new parties getting registered in the minds of voters has not happened.
8. We have checked the BSP factor by looking at their presence and performance in all constituencies in the 2004 elections.
9. Although there is a close contest in some constituencies we stick our head out and give only name per constituency.