S.S. KARNADSHA and R. KANNAN write: Voters in 69 constituencies in eight districts of Karnataka will troop to the polling booths tomorrow in the third and final phase of voting in the elections to the state legislative assembly. And churumuri.com is pleased to present its third, amateur, grassroots look at how it will turn out for the parties.
Our score for the third round: BJP 32, Congress 25, JDS 11, independent 1.
Read in conjunction with our first two surveys, we are predicting, in all, 92 seats for the Congress, 84 for the BJP, and 41 for the JDS in Mandate 2008. Independents and others: 7. In a house of 224, with the halfway mark standing at 113, the State, according to us, is heading for a hung assembly.
Like in the first two surveys, here and here, one of us travelled to at least one constituency in each district (full methodology below). Unlike other opinion polls and pre-poll surveys, which only give a random seat count and do not even describe the methodology, we pinpoint the likely winners in each of the 69 constituencies.
Among our key findings in this round are:
# Team Jarkiholi—Balachandra, Satish, Ramesh—will triumph in three Belgaum constituencies.
# Actress Umashri will find it tough going in Terdal, but B.C. Patil is tipped to sneak through in Hirekerur.
# Former State BJP president Jagadish Shettar will win from Hubli-Dharwad central.
We will go wrong with some of the predictions, of course, but we will be delighted to be proved wrong and to be questioned and pilloried for it after the results are announced on May 25.
Our “hung assembly” findings are clearly in contrast to an NDTV-IMRB exit poll after the second round which says BJP could come to power, and a Suvarna News-Cfore survey, aired last night, which too hints at BJP gaining the upperhand.
***
BELGAUM: BJP 8, Congress 7, JDS 3
Nippani: Congress, Kakaso Pandurang Patil
Chikkodi-Sadalga: Congress, Hukkeri Prakash
Athani: BJP, Laxman Sangappa Savadi
Kagwad: BJP, Bharamgouda Alagouda Kage
Kudachi (SC): BJP, Mahendra K. Tammannavar
Raibag (SC): Congress, Omprakash S. Kanagali
Hukkeri: JDS, Umesh Vishwanath Katti
Arabhavi: JDS, Balachandra Laxmanrao Jarakiholi
Gokak: Congress, Jarkiholi Ramesh Laxmanrao
Yemkanmardi (ST): Congress, Jarkiholi Satish Laxmanrao
Belgaum North: JDS, Kudachi Ramesh Laxman
Belgaum South: BJP, Abhay Patil
Belgaum Rural: Congress, Malagi Shivputrappa Chanabasappa
Khanapur: Congress, Rafique Khatalsab Khanapuri
Kittur: BJP, Marihal Suresh Shivarudrappa
Bailhongal: BJP, Metgud Virupaxi (Jagadish) Channappa
Saundatti Yellamma: BJP, Mamani Vishwanath Chandrashekar
Ramdurg: BJP, Mahdevappa Shivalingappa Yadawad***
BAGALKOT: BJP 6, JDS 1
Mudhol (SC): BJP, Govinda Karjol
Terdal: BJP, Siddu Savadi
Jamakhandi: BJP, Srikant Kulkarni
Bilgi: BJP, Murugesha Nirani
Badami: BJP, M.K. Pattanshetty
Bagalkot: JDS, P.H. Poojar
Hungund: BJP, Doddanagouda Patil***
BIJAPUR: BJP 4, JDS 2, Congress 1, Independent 1
Muddebihal: JDS, Vimalabhai Deshmukh
Devar Hippargi: BJP, Basanagouda Yatnal
Basavana Bagewadi: BJP, S.K. Bellubi
Babaleshwar: Congress, M.B. Patil
Bijapur City: BJP, Appu Pattanashetty
Nagthan (SC): BJP, Vittala Katakadonda
Indi: Independent, Ravikanth Patil
Sindagi: JDS, M.C. Managoli***
GULBARGA: Congress 8, JDS 3, BJP 2
Afzalpur: JDS, Tukaramagouda Patil
Jevargi: Congress, Dharam Singh
Surapur (ST): Congress, Raja Venkatappa Naik
Shahapur: JDS, Shivashekarappa Shiravala
Yadgir: Congress, A.B. Malaka Reddy
Gurmitkal: Congress, Baburao Chinchanasur
Chittapur (SC): Congress, Mallikarjuna Kharge
Sedam: Congress, Sharanaprakash Patil
Chincholi (SC): Congress, Baburao Chavan
Gulbarga Rural (SC): BJP, Revunayak Belamagi
Gulbarga South: BJP, Chandrashekara Patil
Gulbarga North: Congress, Qamarul Islam
Aland: JDS, Subhash Guttedar***
BIDAR: BJP 3, Congress 2, JDS 1
Basavakalyan: BJP, Basavaraj Patil Attur
Humnabad: Congress, Rajashekar Patil
Bidar South: JDS, Bandeppa Kashempur
Bidar: Congress, Gurupadappa Nagamarapalli
Bhalki: BJP, Prakash Khandre
Aurad (SC): BJP, Prabhu Chavan***
GADAG: Congress 2, BJP 1, JDS 1
Shirahatti (SC): JDS, Alkod Hanumantappa Yallappa
Gadag: Congress, H.K. Patil
Ron: Congress, Gurupadagouda Sanganagouda Patil
Nargund: BJP, C.C. Patil***
DHARWAD: Congress 4, BJP 3, JDS 0
Navalgund: BJP, Shankar Patil Munenkoppa
Kundgol: Congress, Channabasappa Sathyappa Shivalli
Dharwad: Congress, Vinay Kulkarni
Hubli-Dharwad East (SC): BJP, Veerabhadrappa Halaharavi
Hubli-Dharwad Central: BJP, Jagadish Shettar
Hubli-Dharwad West: Congress, Honnalli Jabbar Khan Hayatakhan
Kalghatgi: Congress, Santosh S. Lad***
HAVERI: BJP 5, Congress 1,
Hangal: BJP, Udasi Channabasappa Mahalingappa
Shiggaon: BJP, Basavaraj Bommai
Haveri (SC): BJP, Neharu Olekar
Byadgi: BJP, Patil Sureshgoudra Basalingagoudra
Hirekerur: Congress, B.C. Patil
Ranebenneur: BJP, G. Shivanna
***
METHODOLOGY: How did we crunch these numbers?
1. We went to at least one constituency in each of the districts going to the polls.
2. We studied the voting pattern of each constituency since 1978 using Election Commission data.
3. In the case of constituencies that have been newly created or spiked due to delimitation of seats, we have examined the chunks that have moved or have been clubbed together.
4. We have looked at each contesting candidate and have drawn a winnability graph keeping local factors in mind. Aspects like personal charisma, nurturing constituency with development projects, and also party-hopping have been factored in.
5. We have cross-checked our lists with strategists of all major political parties. We have discounted their claims when they have been bombastic and accommodated them when they have been realistic.
6. We have studied the percentage of votes polled by each party and the victory margins of all seats in the 2004 election. We have given the benefit of doubt to the runner up in 2004 elections if he has lost by a thin margin and is contesting again. In some cases it is the runner up political party that gets this advantage although they have changed the candidate.
7. Due to the strict EC poll code we have given very little chance to new faces and parties entering a constituency for the first time. We believe that the process of new faces or new parties getting registered in the minds of voters has not happened.
8. We have checked the BSP factor by looking at their presence and performance in all constituencies in the 2004 elections.
9. Although there is a close contest in some constituencies we stick our head out and give only name per constituency.
… and if you get it right, we need to replace all the ‘scientific’ based crap surveys by yours!
Did you say Dharam Singh is winning? bah!
http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItems.asp?ID=IEK20080519004923&Page=K&Title=Southern+News+%2D+Karnataka&Topic=0
hm… 41 seats overall to jds is intresting.I am not in favour for afzalpur going to jds seat.its a seat made for bjp this time.But jds has chancesof getting upto 5 seats in belgaum.
overall i too predict a hung assembly with jds around 45 seats but with much better performance in south karnataka i.e atleast 29-30 seats and 15 seats in other parts.
but we can just predict and vote.jana yenu nirdhaara maadidhaaro shivane balla.
Nice dilemmas for both congress and BJP.
Though I agree with the methodology of taking the previous performanance as the basis for the studies, I feel that the JDS has been given a better share than what the ground realities suggest. In the six districts Bombay Karnataka area (one district having had its poll in the second round), the JDS has hardly base because the people of the region as a whole without exception are psychologically not disposed off towards Mr Devegowda, who is generally perceived as the anti Northern karnataka man.
Anyhow this was an effort worth trying which is refreshing different from other surveys and opinions made. The inference may go wrong but not the facts on which you have based it. This is privilege, which is not there for other studies of the ilk.
My tally would be 34 to BJP Congress 21 JDS 9 Others 5
Dont see MES in your winners list…thats a bit surprising and quite welcome !
The polls of the two weeklies, Gauri Lankesh, Lankesh Patrike and Churmuri seem to suggest the same voting trends in Karnataka, i.e.. Congress leads the pack closely followed by BJP, with JDS way behind in 40s. Even ‘Agni’, another periodical is inclined towards Congress becoming the single largest party, although it hasn’t done a poll.
Somehow these polls and ground reports are at odds with the opinion poll of DRS (X news channel) and NDTV’s exit poll which seem to suggest that BJP is on its way to getting a majority. DRS poll says its 120 for BJP, 49 for congress and 40 odd seats for JDS. NDTV’s final exit poll appears on air today. But going by its first two phases of exit poll, it’s more or less certain that NDTV will suggest that its going to be an extremely close case of majority for BJP or in the best case it will go up to 115.
CNN IBN’s exit poll too is gonna be revealed tonight. However, it is the only media which has said that congress will get a majority on its own. In a pre poll done almost three weeks back, IBN said its going to be 114 for congress 60 for BJP and 37 for JDS. Personally, I think this scenario is almost impossible. I wonder how Yogendra Yadav will extricate himself from his earlier poll. My prediction: He will say that much has changed since the last time..and there has been a sudden surge of support for BJP has in the past three weeks
Churumuri’s poll gives 8 for congress in Gulbarga. However, the ground reports of various dailies suggest that its not going to be a cakewalk for congress in Gulbarga. Dharm Singh and Mallikarjun Kharge are fighting with their backs to the wall.
CURIOUS ABOUT CHURUMURIs METHODOLOGY
I am curious to know if Churumuri’s methodology uses actual opinions of people in the various constituencies they visited. If so, how many is their sample..or do they merely rely on past electoral history? Their point 4 of their methodology says they have drawn a winnability graph based on local factors. Local factors, should surely take people’s opinions, right? If so, who are these people.
The bottomline: When reports, across the board suggest there is a strong breeze in favour of BJP, it’s kind of difficult to digest that Congress is going to be the leading party.
Can someone throw light?
B C Patil will lose.
With redrawn constituencies, how can we depend on the electoral history?
Except Churumuri(hopefully) every other poller seems to be biased towards their pet parties.
Here’s my prediction..
Yadgir – BJP
Afzalpur – BJP
Surapur – BJP
Shahapur – BJP or Cong not JDS.
With this I can say that ur predictions are wrong.
There is a stark difference in the way people from north Karnataka and south Karnataka perceive this election. In North they feel leaders of congress and JD(S) neglect north Karnataka and see BJP as the only saviour. Further Lingayat majority north Karnataka is firmly behind BJP as that community is out of power for 10 long years and want to grab a chance to make a Lingayat become a CM. Lingayat community hasn’t produced any good leader after late Veerendra patil. In Old Mysore region the issue is more of a development althrough caste politics is there here and since majority Vokkaligas enjoyed power for 10 long years its not an issue here to make Vokkaliga a CM. Hence here Congress and JD(S) are more popular than BJP.
The Lingayats (who constitute a mere 16% of entire Karnataka) alone cannot ensure the victory of BJP. No party can come to power by enjoying support of only one community. So, I feel Old Mysorean’s analysis is a bit too generic and all too familiar.
More or less ok .ur prediction might be wrong in Humnabad.Donot be surprised you predictions/assements willnot be proved wrong in numbers +/- 5 to 6 seats.
Bravo let us wait for 25th & then let us weigh things
Just lingayat votes cannot put Yeddi in the Gaddi.
Backward classes are not voting for BJP… this is also a major set back for BJP.
Minority votes will make lot of difference.
Congress will be single largest
My following of politics has taught me not to believe pollsters and experts as they mostly go wrong…churmuri has done good research as they have gone to the grass roots…
I totally believe this is the BJP’s best chance in karnataka as by next time kumaraswamy would have emerged as a favourite….
But my instinct tells me that there is a OBC-Minority consolidation happening against the Lingayats…
BJP made the mistake of projecting itself too much lingayat oriented …
Now its for the congress to reap the electoral dividend by campaigning well…
My prediction is
Congress – 93 seats
BJP- 78 seats
JDS – 39 seats
Others – 14 seats
congress is surviving bcos of their kuruba leader siddaramaiah…else the BJP would have swept the state this time…he will transfer atleast 9% of the JDS vote to the congress…thats my calc…remains to be seen if its true …
I also feel Bagalkot and Haveri the BJP wont be able to sweep so much and in gulbarga bjp will do better…
cant wait for the 25th…this sunday at 8.00 am the action starts…
for all we political lovers…its better than IPL