An exit poll-cum-post poll survey for CNN-IBN and Deccan Herald conducted by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) says the BJP is doing much better in the Karnataka elections than its pre-poll survey had indicated, but the three main parties obtain the same share of the votes they did in 2004. Namely, 35 per cent for the Congress, 30 per cent for the BJP, and 21 per cent for the JDS.
Translation: none of the three parties are going to be able to form a government on their own.
Rajeeva L. Karandikar of Cranes Software, analysing the fieldwork, says the Congress will end up with 86, BJP 79, JDS 45, others 14. The sample size was 4,348 respondents in 92 locations. (An amateur, grassroots survey by churumuri.com said Congress would end up with 92 seats, BJP 84, JDS 41, independents and others 7.)
Rajdeep Sardesai and Yogendra Yadav say it’s going to be a “classic hung assembly” especially after the BJP failed to maintain the momentum of the first two phases in the third.
In its pre-poll survey, the same three agencies had predicted 114 seats for the Congress (up 49), 60 for the BJP (down 19), and 37 for the JDS (down 21). That survey had said the Congress looked like securing 39 per cent of the popular vote, BJP 28 per cent and JD (S) 20 per cent votes. The pre-poll survey was done in 75 constituencies with a sample size of a little over 5,000.
After an exit poll of the third phase, NDTV concludes the BJP will end up with 95-115 seats, the Congress with 55-75, and the JDS 45-55. Of the 69 seats which went to the polls today, NDTV predicts says BJP will get 30-40 seats, Congrtess 20-30 and JDS 10-12. In 2004, BJP had 33 seats, the Congress 17 and JDS 10 seats. The sample size was 9,880 and the fieldwork was done by IMRB.
An exit poll cum post poll survey for Suvarna News by C-Fore says BJP will get 104-114 seats, Congress 69-74, JDS 35-40 and others 6-10. BJP is expected to get a voteshare of 35%, Congress 34%, JDS 19%, and others 12%. In its pre-poll survey, the two agencies had said Congress would end up slightly ahead at 90 seats.
Infographic: courtesy CNN-IBN