Professor Narendar Pani of the National Institute of Advanced Studies, in Mail Today:
“Pollsters can do well in states, like Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where parties depend largely on committed voters. Pollsters can then distribute their sample to cover constituencies that represent the different sides in an election. Any shift captured in these constituencies can give us a pretty good idea of the overall picture.
“Karnataka, on the other hand, is extremely volatile. Voting percentages of a party in a constituency are known to shift by as much as 15 to 20 percent. There was a time when this volatility was influenced by national leaders…. Once the Congress lost its invincibility in 1983, Karnataka’s voters tended to place a great deal of importance on how they felt about a local politician at a point of time.
“These close ties between voters and individual leaders have in recent years meant voters tend to often put their local leader above the party. When leaders shift dramatically from one party to another, they are able to take a far greater number of their voters with them than they would in a state dominated by cadre based parties. These shifts were difficult enough to monitor when there were two main parties, but have become even more complicated now that Karnataka has three parties vying for power and a fourth, the BSP, attracting its share of politicians…..
“And there is no distinct pattern in the direction in which the politicians are moving. Faced with this volatility attempting to choose a constituency as representing a particular party, on the basis of its previous voting pattern, is clearly futile.”
Photograph: Armed with their identity cards and voting slips, a band of women use empty fertiliser bags to make sure their Ilkal sarees don’t get soiled on their way to a polling booth in Dharwad on Thursday. (Karnataka Photo News)
It is very difficult to digest the inference of Dr Pani that there is a shift inthe loyalty of the voters coincidng with the change in the loyalty of the local leaders. One such a thing is not happenning in Karnataka. Secondly where are those leaders, who are able to carry the voters along with them whenever they go.
May I know from Dr Pani, what is the other basis for understanding the political profile of a constituency other than the track record of its previous performanance? It may have its own drawbacks but definitely more reliable than the the basis for the sample surveys undertaken for opinion polls.
Because of the delimitation of constituency, the previous performanace in the election in a constituency may not be the actual barometer for judging the mood, but this is better that groping in the back and the changes in the composition, can be suitable factored while making some assessmen.
NOne of the surveys both prepoll and exit made so far, have been able to capture the mood of the electorate in karnataka, more so because the manner in which is the questionnaire is structured, wanting yes or no answers for the querries, hardly takes into the consideration, the local factors which influence the voters.
Pollsters are not HONEST.Voters are.Hence the CRACKS are unable to Crack the Puzzle.
All the exit poll resuts are going to be false. KARNATAKA will give a surprise result on 25th.
Manu doesn’t say with confidence what the surprise result will be. 114 seats for BSP?