Officially, over half-a-million Indians have lost their jobs. From airlines to auto majors to media mavens, every sector wants a bailout. Stores and malls are closing down in front of your eyes. Companies are cutting costs, freezing recuritments, postponing expansion plans, extending training periods for benchwarmers, etc.
But what is the reality?
Is India really in the middle of the global financial slowdown, explaining all these frantic measures?
Or is it an illusion?
From Bombay, a rare voice of dissent. Academic-economist, and vice-chancellor of the University of Poona, Narendra Jadhav, at a seminar:
“There is no recession in India. Some industrialists have created a fake picture of recession to seek financial bailouts.”
churumuri 
Recession: Two consecutive quarters of nil or negative growth.
Clearly that is not happening in India. There is a slowdown in the sense that our economic growth is slowing down from the relative highs of the last year, but definitely not shrinking or stagnating for the moment.
On the other hand, the industrial sector specifically could be in recession giving that manufacturing has actually shrunk in the last quarter.
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Is it a case of paranoia? Yesterday, you wrote about “biggest corporate coverup”. Today you write about make believe recession for obtaining fianncial bailouts. Conspiracies seem abound. In a country which is full of quid pro quo, we tend to believe all the theories – more improbable, the better. I recommend that you interview some industrial employees to know the truth. This economist does not seem to have seen the inside of a factory.
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Narayana murthy says he remembered recession of 1929!!!. Ask him if he remembers freedom struggle. With Charlatans like Murthy preaching.. what we have is a recession of brains.
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This article in The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/world/slum-economy-offers-hope-in-delhi-20090213-8754.html?page=-1
suggests that the informal economy may be working at the moment:
“R. Venkatesan from the National Council of Applied Economic Research says small manufacturers producing for domestic consumption could escape the economic crisis.
“I don’t think this sector should see a slump,” he said.
“Sure, the Indian economy is growing at 7 per cent rather than the 8 to 9 per cent, but it’s still a very good growth rate compared with the past.”
The same goes for the agricultural sector, which provides a livelihood for the majority of India’s population. The latest figures show that growth in the rural economy has been unaffected by global events, says Mr Venkatesan.
The Indian economy relies much less on exports than other developing countries and so is much less exposed to the collapse in consumer demand in the US and Europe.
Exporters have been hit much harder and there are reports that hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost.
This eventually might threaten micro-manufacturers such as Kalimuddin, as export-oriented garment makers shift their product to the domestic market and drive down prices.”
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Narendra Jadhav deserves lobotomy prize.
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Its always about the money honey.
It doesn’t take an economist to point out that when the Indian growth rate is projected to be at about 7% – there is no recession!! This growth rate is fantastic considering that unlike the West, there are no local language computers sold in India. Speilberg where are you?
Once this happens I assure you that the gdp is going to go up and up and up so will some semblance of equality. The hooligans and vandals may abandon Muthalik to learn graphic design and write poems in their language to persuade women not to go to the pub instead of beating them up.
And if all those ladies with the rolling pins became mouse riders – well, historically, India’s been a rich country and there is no reason why we cannot be rich again. It certainly doesn’t help matters when body shoppers insist that all Indians should speak English so they can work for “Kinkosys” to service the white West.
Muthalik and his ilk should demand computing in their languages and protest against the “English only” brigade, the fake recession picture painting industrialists etc… – not some girls who are trying to chill out.
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Narendra Jadhav says “There is no recession”.
Churumuri interprets “There is no slowdown”.
As Alok points out above, these are two different things.
Churumuri, stick to photos of Yeddy falling over chairs. Economics is clearly not your cup of tea.
@Narayana,
:-) !!
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# When did 16% growth become a recession for the IT industry?
Just read a brilliant blog post on Mint that says IT Industry considers 16% growth as recessionary !
http://blogs.livemint.com/blogs/from_the_beat/archive/2009/
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when NGEF , MYSORE LAMPS closed down no politician raised a question — why b coz people who worked there were lower middle class, poor. who cares
but when a ao called IT company was in a mess ,it became a national emergency. bail out followed.
this is called exploitation,double standard.
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