On the day the Election Commission announced the schedule for the Lok Sabha elections, former Union minister and Congressman-turned-BJP strategist Arun Nehru‘s back-of-the-envelope calculations, published in The Pioneer, Delhi, of where the two “national” parties stand.
The verdict: Congress 149, BJP 135. In other words, the “regional” parties still hold the key at this point for either the UPA or the NDA to reach 272.
Unless, of course….
Sheela Bhatt on rediff.com:
“If one looks from New Delhi, it seems that the Congress has an overall edge compared to other contestants. But if you view the Congress’s prospects from the state capitals, they seem hardly encouraging. If Congress loses dramatically in Andhra Pradesh (it has 29 seats in the outgoing house) and Tamil Nadu (10 seats), it will almost certainly lose the game.
“The reverse is true for the BJP. From New Delhi, the BJP looks divided, confused and devoid of fresh ideas. But in a few crucial states it seems that the party is set to take advantage of the anti-incumbency of the United Progressive Alliance government. In the western states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, the issues of terrorism and economy are hot and will harm the Congress.”
Graphic: courtesy The Pioneer
Also read: Poll straws again point to a ‘hung’ parliament
We will be ruled by Karunanidhi, who always manages to be in the ruling coalition, no matter whether it is Congress or the BJP which is the largest party. One may substitute Karunanidhi with Amma, without any compunction. Our polity will continue to be manipulated by Amar Singh and his ilk. Maya behn can make more deals with Mulayam, Lallu et al for realising the dream of Dalit girl to become the Prime Minister of India. Communists will continue to commit “historical blunders”. The two national parties will continue to be buffetted by the regional parties, and occasionally held for ransom. All the while we citizens will wring our hands and curse the politicians and our fate.
At least in this election the people of India should become wiser. Enough of this balancing -act government. The stability and development of the nation should be the first priority.
don’t fret. This time we will have something real and useful that we can copy from the west. Very soon we will have examples of revolutions in the western world that we can enact here.. hopefully. All bubbles have to burst and even this corruption and politics bubble will burst. May be we have hit ‘peak’ corruption …
BJP seat will be more than what is projected here in:
UP (eastern UP is for big surprize)
Key is UP- if BJP gets 15-20 here, it will get more than Cong.
this election will be a disaster. some hotch-potch combination will come to power with the sole intention of grabbing power, rule for 1-2 years where we see a new PM every 6 months, no major initiatives being taken because of contradictions and the govt will eventually collapse in next 2-3 years. This election will be a total waste of tax payers money and undo whatever minimal progress we achieved with so much corruption in the past 10 years. Its a pity that we know the outcome, but cant do anything.
Caste based rule is coming again.
Only this time the winner and losers may be different.
Looks like Deve Gowda is sniffing power again. As per the news, he seems to be spearheading the Third Front. I’m sure he’ll make an all-out effort to create the right noise and news to self-proclaim himself to be the leader of Third Front and before you realize, he is the “consensus” choice.
It is a coincidence. But it has been happenning. Whichever party wins in Karnataka, loses at the Centre.
If BJP is to put up a good show in Karnataka, in the loksabha elections, it may lose the race for power at the Centre.
If Arun Nehrus calculations are to be believed, the dreams of Mr Advani in occupyin the chair of the Prime Minister may not be realised.
Your optimism may not be misplaced. But for some more time, the bleak picture I drew will hold the field. Elsewhere, churumuri folks have floated the idea of coalition between the Congress and the BJP. Unless the two responsible national parties merge their differences and give emphasis to the common interests, the regional satraps will continue to hold the Indian polity for ransom.
Most political anaylsts who predicted that NDA would win last time, are really no anaylsts. They are quite dumb.
Last time, every election was won on alliance.
In AP, cong and TRS alliance won against TDP
In bihar, LJP, Left, RJD and Cong was a powerful alliance vs. just BJp and JDU
In Tamil Nadu, DMK, MDMK, PMK, Cong and Left were extremely powerful against a lone AIADMK with fringe BJP support
it has been proved time and again, elections are won and lost on ARITHMETIC of alliances.
In elections, 1+1 is not equal to 2.
Actually, 1+1 = 4.
here is a simple calculation.
In Karnataka, last time (2004 LS elections) Congress won 8 seats and JDS won 2 seats. Put together, they have won 10 seats, while BJP won 18 seats.
But, if JDS had had an alliance with Congress, their combined tally would not have been 10, it would have been 22!
Which means BJP would have won a pathetic 6 instead of 18!
Just check the votes of all three parties in each constituency and you will realise BJP has done better than the combined votes of Cong and JDS in only 6 constituencies.!
If Cong and JDS go separately this time, BJP can be assured of 18 to 20 seats in Karnataka.
BUt if Cong and JDS have an alliance, then this combo can prove very very potent at the hustings.
Similaraly, If SP and Cong get together in UP, it wil spell doom for other parties. Harest hit will be BJP. Ajith singh has influence in 5 seats. so this BJP Ajit Singh alliance hardly counts.
If LJP, RJD and Cong get back again in Bihar, it won’t be smooth sailing for Nitish. But foolish political journalists still blabber that it will be easy for Nitish.
If Trinamool and Cong get together in West Bengal, Left will find itself in a soup.
IF national conference and Congress get together in Jammu and Kashmir, they have the potential of sweeping 6 out of 6 seats.
If SP, NCP, Cong and Republican parties get together in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena – BJP alliance will not be effective. Especially so, when you consider that Raj Thackeray will wean away 5 to 8% votes of Shiv Sena, this will only benefit Cong
In MP, Uma Bharati weaned away 5% votes from BJP in the recent assembly polls. As a result, BJP’s seats fell by around 40 seats! Which means, if Uma continues to cut into BJP’s vote bank, you can fairly clearly say BJP will NOT repeat its 2004 sterling perfromance in MP!
IN rajasthan, it is almost sure, BJP will not repeat its performance of last time, because Cong is on a high over there.
In Gujarat 2002 assembly elections BJP won handsomely.
But two years later, in 2004 LS elections, BJP and Congress almost equally split the rewards (14 to BJP and 12 to Congress) 12 to Congress was superb in a BJP bastion.
In last year’s Gujarat assembly polls, BJP’s seats and vote share fell compared to 2002. Which means, in Gujarat you are looking at a further downslide for BJP
In kerala, UPA will gain 15 seats extra compared to last time.
So where is NDA gaining from?
ಗೌಡ್ರೇ ಗೆದ್ದು ಬನ್ನಿ , ಮಾನಸಿಕವಾಗಿ ಉತ್ತರ ಭಾರತಿಯರ ಗುಲಾಮಗಿರಿಗೇ ಒಗ್ಗಿರುವ ಕನ್ನಡಿಗರ ಸ್ವಾಭಿಮಾನ ಬಡಿದೆಬ್ಬಿಸಿ.
With this election Deve Gowda plans to introduce his son Kumarswamy into National Politics a la Anbumani Ramdoss. All that DG needs is 8 – 10 seats.
I have a question.
Is “Flexible” the sixth avatara of “Simple”?
This is good news indeed to all sickularists…!
Instead of wasting Rs.10K crores on elections, we should crown the nehru family prince …so that we can save money with which center will have some money to through on poor ppl face.
Karihaida, You are more optimistic than Advani! I think, majority of the people feel the same way like B.N.Gururaj – Me including. I hope against hope that at least this time people will give majority to one single party this time – whether it is Cong or BJP hardly matters. If again, we get Khichdi hotchpotch party consisting of all and sundry, each party having not more than 10 MPs, our country is gone for a toss. Let us hope, people will show some sanity this time. Otherwise, God save us.
I agree with Sheela Bhat. She is right.
Recently many Oscar awards were won by quiet a few Asians. A rumour is going around that as all those Asians are Muslims, and this has been stage managed by the Congress party to garner Minority votes in the coming parliament elections.
When the BJP go to the God men , why not the Congress!!
I second BN Gururaj. Anyway there is nothing to choose between bjp and cong. They will also provide a counterbalance to each other in addition to stability.
if BJP COMES TO POWER AT THE CENTRE , kannadigas be prepared to see our pristine forests , mountain ranges , our water falls being destroyed mercilessly by money hungry, mining mafia of the BJP.
bjp and illegal mining are synonomous terms.
our ancestors named mountains ,waterfalls after gods — boothayyana betta, gopalaswamy betta , mullayyana giri , narahari gudda, lakshmana theertha etc with the intention that people of future generation will desist from destroying these marvels due to fear of god. BJP will calls itself proud hindus it destroying this proud facet of hindu tradition.
yes I’m optimistic (and scared too), but with a reason. Just look at the signs all over the world. Change is coming and whether we like it or not we have to embrace it. One simple indicator, if you haven’t paid attention Re has gone to 52 against USD. Think what will happen when Re is at 70-80. We are one bond auction failure away from that. Or unemployment hits 15-20%. Out of sight may be out of mind, but that doesn’t change the reality.
respond to issues raised by Flexible. Don’t cast aspersions on the sender.
That was sic!!!?
This is Oscar man, not yr filmfare or stardust awards
Simple, I hardly feel comparing “Flexible” with “Simple” is the same as “casting aspersions” :)
dr Ramesh – Point well taken. I would rather that all parties be looked at critically, than just make a cult of BJP bashing for the sake of BJP bashing.
In TN, DMK is getting unpopular, but Amma is not using it effectively. There are many issues like corruption in 3-G spectrum is not talked properly from AIADMK + allies side. People are talking losses to the tune of 40,000-60,000 loss to government, thanks to our incumbent Minister IT Minister Raja.
But TN opposition parties are largely silent about it. Is it because he is a Dalit? Corruption has no caste. AIADMK + allies should expose this vigorously in the upcoming election
“I would rather that all parties be looked at critically”
Agreed. Let us start doing that.
“Agreed. Let us start doing that.”
– No issues. But we might most times differ on what “critical”, is.
“All voting is a sort of gaming, like checkers or backgammon, with a slight moral tinge to it, a playing with right and wrong, with moral questions; and betting naturally accompanies it. The character of the voters is not staked. I cast my vote, perchance, as I think right; but I am not vitally concerned that that right should prevail. I am willing to leave it to the majority. Its obligation, therefore, never exceeds that of expediency. Even voting for the right is doing nothing for it. It is only expressing to men feebly your desire that it should prevail. A wise man will not leave the right to the mercy of chance, nor wish it to prevail through the power of the majority. There is but little virtue in the action of masses of men.”