Of course, Indian politics is the art of the possible

The Congress is in the middle of a blazing row with Lalu Prasad Yadav‘s RJD over seat sharing. The BJP, deserted by the Biju Janata Dal, is in the middle of a intra-party war between president Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitely, not to speak of its execrable validation of Varun Gandhi‘s conduct.

Little wonder, Arun Nehru‘s guesestimates for the 2009 general elections clearly drawn up before the Congress-RJD fallout, published in Deccan Chronicle, continue to show the two “national” parties still way behind the “others”, but with one small difference: The gap between the Congress (153) and BJP (130) seems to be widening.

“While every party is under pressure on alliance pattern and seat selection, the BJP continues to damage its prospects. The fact that the Trinamul Congress, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Telugu Desam, the Biju Janata Dal and the National Conference (all NDA allies in 2004) have chosen to fight the 2009 elections on their own clearly indicates that they do not wish to alienate the minority vote.”

Graphic: courtesy Deccan Chronicle

Arun Nehru‘s earlier guesstimates: part I, part II, part III