Of course, predictions have gone wrong before

Before the Congress ran into trouble with RJD and SP, after the BJP broke off with the BJD, on the eve of the PMK deserting the UPA, and as TRS runs into trouble with the TDP, a Reuters news agency poll of 14 analysts of various backgrounds, incuding Universities, pollsters, banks.

Twelve of the 14 analysts say Manmohan Singh will become prime minister for a second time.

(The weekly poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but is intended to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.)

Also read: It’s a free world. You can believe any number.

Arun Nehru: part I, part II, part III, part IV