Not because good sense has dawned on us but because the Election Commission has banned the publication of all opinion and exit polls from 3pm Tuesday, April 14, till the end of the last phase of polling of the 15th general elections are announced on May 13.
Meantime, the findings of the NDTV opinion poll done in conjunction with GfK-Mode to chew on. Sample size: 50,000.
UPA 205-215, NDA 160-170, Third Front 120-130.
***
The veteran political observer Sheela Bhatt paints some post-poll scenarios on rediff.com:
1. If the Congress gets 20 seats more than the BJP the momentum to form the next government will be with the Congress.
2. If the Congress is in the lead position on May 16, the day of counting, and if the Left has 35 or more seats, then post-election the first tussle will be between them.
3. If the combined strength of the Congress and BJP does not touch 272 seats then the Third Front will grab the leadership in negotiating new alliances and will try to present a cohesive facade. In that case the Congress will be surely the kingmaker.
4. If and when the Congress sees that it is not in a position to form the government it may try to play kingmaker. The BJP can also enter the ring and sponsor Sharad Pawar, Jaylalithaa or Nitish Kumar.
5. If the BJP becomes the single largest party with some 25 or more seats than the Congress it will be a big surprise of this election.
6. Even if Mayawati gets 35 to 45 seats, she will be the most opposed leader after the election.
Read the full article: Elections 2009 seems like 543 mini-elections
Graphic: courtesy NDTV
It is too early to that “if BJP gets 20-25 more seats it will be a big surpirse”, I think the analysts have not learnt their lessons from Gujarat and Karnataka elections…. its good the EC has stopped opinion/exit polls.
Third front getting only 1-2 seats in karnataka is a joke . we all know how strong JDS is in old mysore region.I somewhat agree to Suvrna news reviews when they say BJP might get 15-18 and congress 8-11 and jds 3-5.
MY STAR GAZING
I have gazed into the stars (like all foolish, juvenile channels) and comeup with the following gem
UPA NDA 3RD FORCE 4TH FORCE others
Uttara Pradesh 80 6 20 28 24 2
Maharashtra 48 28 20
AP 42 12 1 28 1
WB 42 22 2 18
Bihar 40 2 30 8
TN 39 9 30
MP 29 6 23
Karnataka 28 5 21 2
Gujarat 26 5 21
Rajasthan 25 12 13
Kerala 20 12 8
Orissa 21 7 3 11
Jharkhand 14 2 10 2
Chattisgarh 11 2 9
Punjab 13 7 6
Asom 14 3 11
Haryana 10 8 2
Delhi 7 4 3
Himachal 4 1 3
Uttarkhand 5 1 4
J&k 6 5 1 3
Others 19 12 4
Total 543 171 207 125 35 5
Let dozens of Jobless pundits,journalists n political analysts in our all-understanding , ‘always right’ media have a field day..That is what these exit/opinion polls are about !!
Many in the public had a good laugh seeing the sulking faces of TV journos in NDTV, IBN when results in Guj and Kar came knocking..the initial trends of BJP getting mauled was making them fly..but as minutes rolled over, the situation changed drastically and all the poll analysts including the ‘experienced’ yogi yadav of ndtv went running for cover as usual and figured out some stupid excuses !!
N thanks for the good news..churumuri which brought our way all these opinion polls from various sources, wont bring us more..we need a break ;-)
Sheela Bhatt..Hmm..Rediff’s Congress voiceperson is infamous for her wrong predictions..check recent records !!
BJP is sure to get much more than 25 seats than Congress..Let there be no doubt !
Media has done a wonderful job of giving their opinions… now let us wait and see what people say…. I am pretty sure these self proclaimed media intellectuals will run for a cover…..
BJP will get zero in Tamil Nadu, in Andhra Pradesh, in Kerala, in West Bengal, in Jammu and Kashmir, in north eastern states.
Compared to last time, BJP will come down in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Orissa Madhya Pradesh adn Chattisgarh
it will improve marginally in states like HP , Jharkand, Assam and Bihar.
NDTV, Suvarna/Kannadaprabha prediction nearly came true in last assembly elections. They were predicting first place for BJP with 95-105 seats and it came true albeit BJP got 5-10 more seats(110 seats). Congress did better than their prediction at the expense of JD(S) as it won few seats like Periyapatna, T.Narsipur etc. in Old Mysore region by a narrow margin of few hundred votes.
Yaa now i know why what churumuri is doing copy the NDTV and TIMESNOW poll results. Both of these chaneels are mouth piece of Congress
If the third front manages to get a majority or form a govt. then imagine – we will have a PM for every 6 months or an year through a sharing of power agreement. Could this ever work for our country?