The economist Bibek Debroy has an interesting piece on reforms in the first 100 days of the next government, in the Indian Express:
“Conceptually, there can be the following configurations: (1) Congress government; (2) BJP government; (3) Congress-led government; (4) BJP-led government; (5) Third Front, supported by the Congress from outside; (6) Third Front, supported by BJP from outside; and (7) Third Front government.
“One doesn’t need psephology to figure out Congress + BJP will add up to 280 seats or thereabouts. And clearly, neither Congress nor BJP is going to wither away. (1), (2) and (7) are therefore out. We are left with (3), (4), (5) and (6).
“Definitions of UPA and NDA are fungible. All one knows is (3) and (5) are a bit more likely than (4) and (6).
“However, there is greater certainty in the economic domain. With (3), (5) or (6), incremental allies will stonewall enough to jettison all reforms. The first 100 days won’t shake India, except with (3), we might have a Right to Food Bill.
“With (3), (5) and (6), we are unlikely to get privatisation of PSUs too, not just on efficiency grounds, but also to bridge deficits. Privatisation is more likely with (4).
“One would like to think those reforms are more likely under (3) or (4), except that the last five years of (3) don’t inspire confidence.”
Read the full article: The next 100 days
All I dread is a Mayawati government supported either by BJP or Congress.
At least Indira Gandhi had some insane reason behind her vendetta, this lady looks merciless and can do anything to remain in power.
Now, that’s news
It is really a good article which gives a different idea to look at present election scenario. A change for Churumuri also.
I think the analysis is a hilarious commedy of errors.
All have seen what such predictions and exit polls did in the recent karnataka, delhi and several other elections.
It is needed that instead of star gazing, hope for the best to happen as the country need strong leadership now
Karat is already dreaming of the big post. If Mayavathi with 30 – 40 seats can dream of being PM, why not the left front candidates with theor 40 + MPs. If the left come any close to power they will ruin the indian middle class.