MATHIHALLI MADAN MOHAN writes from Hubli: By all reckoning, it is now clear that the Congress and Janata Dal Secular have not been able to halt the BJP juggernaut in Karnataka in the 2009 general elections. Period.
The supremacy of the BJP, as reflected when it was voted to power in the assembly elections last year, is expected to be reflected in the Lok Sabha elections too.
In the LS elections held for the first time under the aegis of the saffron government, the BJP is expected to pick up around 18 of the 28 seats. With some pluck, it may even pick up a few more to put Karnataka in line with BJP as among the bastions of the BJP at the national level.
Considering the fact that the BJP had won 18 seats in 2004 when it was in opposition in Karnataka, it may look as if the BJP has not been able to derive any extra advantage of being in power in the State. But viewed in the context of the disadvantageous position in which the BJP had landed after the delimitation of the constituencies, this is to be considered as an achievement and as a bonus for a party in power.
In 2004, the BJP had won 18 seats as against eight of the Congress and two of the JDS. This was before delimitation of the constituencies. In the assembly election held after delimitation last year, the BJP indeed was voted to power but it found to its chagrin that there had been some change in the ground-level situation in the parliamentary segments.
Its hold in the parliamentary segments had come down from 18 to 12, and it could pick up one more namely Chikodi, thanks to the by-election in one of the assembly segments (Hukeri) to end up with lead in 13, which was still far fewer than the 18 seats it had won five years ago.
The score card which read 18-8-2 in 2004 had come down to the 13-11-4 after the by-election and in the cumulative votes tally after the string of eight by-elections to the assembly, the BJP for the first time pushed the Congress to the second position for the first time in the electoral history of the Karnataka.
It now appears that the BJP has been able to up its tally in the LS elections too, notwithstanding the five per cent drop in the poll turnout, which in actual terms would mean around sixteen lakh voters staying away.
The BJP’s fortunes in the LS elections hinges on two essential factors, the first one being the addition of around ten lakh new voters and the second on the BJP raking up substantial support from “others” category of voters, namely the non-Congress/ non-BJP/ non-JDS section of voters who participated in the assembly elections.
As far as new voters are concerned, the increase has been an average of more than 38,000 for each parliamentary constituency. The track record of elections held since 1999 has it that the Congress has not been able to secure a single extra vote and has as a matter of fact suffered erosion in its votes’ tally and the BJP has been the main beneficiary of the additional support by the new voters.
In the 2008 assembly elections, the BJP had a lead ranging from as low as 4,000 in Bangalore North to as high as over a lakh in Davanagere and Shimoga, in thirteen LS constituencies. The support by the new voters is expected to consolidate the lead further in Chikodi, Belgaum Bagalkot, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Kanara, Davanagere, Shimoga, Udupi, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central and Bangalore South.
In the 11 parliamentary segments where the Congress had a lead ranging from 5,000 in Dakshina Kannada to one lakh in Chamarajanagar, the role of new voters may prove to be disadvantageous for the Congress. This is especially so in the constituencies of Bijapur, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Dakshin Kannada, where the lead is less than 25,000. In Gulbarga, Mysore, Chikballapur and Kolar, where the lead is more than 50,000, the Congress may become vulnerable.
As far as the JDS is concerned, it is a mixed bag. In Tumkur, where it has to battle with the BJP, the new voters may swing the pendulum away from the JDS in favour of the BJP. In Bangalore Rural, the three parties are almost on an equal footing and the support of the new voters would help the BJP close the gap with its rivals to provide a photo-finish outcome. In Hassan and the Mandya, where it is battling with Congress, the BJP has a hard grind even with the support of the new voters.
And as far as the role of other voters in the 2004 elections is concerned, of the 38 lakh in this category, twenty lakh had voted in the parliamentary election, with the BJP walking away with three-fourths of the support. In the 2008 election the number stood at 33 lakh.
It is not possible to estimate at this moment what would be the size of this category of voters and the role played by them, which can become clear only when the counting is taken up.
What is clear at the moment is that the voting turnout has been low. The low turnout in the parliamentary election whenever it is held separately has been a regular phenomenon in Karnataka. But this time, it has been lower than anticipated.
Past records have shown that a lower turnout does not necessarily mean erosion of support base for the principal contenders. They are known to get the core support that they have got in the assembly election and wait for the additional support from the “others” category of voters.
While the average drop has been around five per cent, the figure for the individual constituencies varies. Barring Bellary and Bangalore Central, it has dropped in all other 26 constituencies, the range being as low as 0.5% in Dakshina Kannada to as high as 15% in Belgaum, Chitradurga, 12% in Bijapur, and 10% each in Kanara and Tumkur.
In actual terms, 244 lakh voters out of an electorate of 410 lakhs have exercised the franchise. The turnout has been seventeen lakhs less than 2008. The BJP and the Congress, it may be noted here, had raked a support of 22.23% (90.42 lakhs) and 22.21% (89.13 lakhs) respectively from the 401 lakh electorate in 2008 elections.
Going by the same percentage of support from the electorate, the BJP and the Congress, between themselves would secure a support of 44.79% in an electorate of 410 lakhs. And this works out to 183.43 lakhs out of the polled votes of 244.43 lakhs, leaving the remaining 61 lakhs being the share of the JDS and the others category of voters.
Since the JDS has been perceived not a serious contender, having concentrated all its energies in winning only hand few of the constituencies, it is not possible to apportion the share of the JDS votes in the remaining.
Whatever may be the quantum of the others category of voters, after taking away the JDS share, a major portion again would go to the lot of the BJP, as has been noticed earlier. This would be further enrich the BJP kitty further.
Also read: In a state of four crore, 33.78 lakhs hold the key
We all know how bad analysis this guy does and is totally a BJP supporter. His analysis on Chamudeshwari constituency in December 2006 is a total crap and we know what happened in the end. He better stick to Hubli and limit his predictions to Mumbai Karnataka region where there are lot of BJP supporters like him are there.
This post is easily the thoroughly researched & well analysed after-poll story that i have read in any media outlet the last 3-4 weeks.
One may not agree about the numbers as predicted by the author..but its very difficult to find fault with how MMM has come to his conclusions.
MMM – please accept my congratulations
Oh, read like analysis after counting …with all fact and figures!
maybe Vote “deleters” have some inside information! or is it report for Nagpur-Brahmins consumption??
I truely believe BJP is on an up-swing in Karnataka. Hope Yeddyurappa realises the aspirations of the masses, and work hard to ensure the dreams turn to reality.
I wish to state that power cut has started the moment vote day culminated. Water too has become a scarce commodity.
The author has made several flaws in assumptions.They are
1) Author assumes that every new voter invariable votes for BJP.This is a wrong notion.It could be partially true only in urban areas and completly false in rural areas.Also mind it,20% of urban people have rural mindset.
2) Lower turnout generally helps traditional parties than new ones because each parties have a fixed party base and traditional and old parties tend to have more number of fixed party base than new ones which is obviously BJP in this case.
3) Candidates are the prime keys.take example of Chitradurga .every Candidate is fearing for BSP candidate Jayanna there. And BSP did nothing in VS elections to put up such stiff fight.candidates can change the scenario.In one seat of chitradurga there were 4 congress rebels and undoubtedly congress lost there.Now parties are not facing rebel factor which should be accounted for.
4) we know that Congress without rebels performs exceptionally well compared to other parties because of huge and fixed party base.
4) New Voters in mangalore belt – christian organisations after church attack had ordered their members to register for voting and vote for secular parties.Now which category will the Author place these new voters who were quite reluctant to vote in last VS elections and now registered themselves with sole aim of defeating communal forces?
If BJP goes above 15 that would be great considering its bad performance.
One more point,
amid all these new voters, you are forgetting 20% of the voters who are not loyal and keep supporting parties based on their thinking.This section far exceeds the new commers and this is the section which turns results on its own.
Everybody knows that Madhva Brahmin and Pejawar shishya M Madan Mohan is a hardcore BJP supporter. But, his arguement is valid. I wouldn’t be suprised, if BJP manages to cross 18 seats. As many as 8 seats witnessed a triangular fight. Cong-JDS fight may finally benefit BJP in these 8 seats (Bangalore Central, Bangalore North, Chikkaballapura, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Koppal and Belgaum).
Even in Bangalore South Capt. Gopinath and Prof. Radhakrishna may finally help BJP. I have observed that many non-BJP voters have voted for Captain and Professor. Otherwise they would have voted for the Congress.
Congress and JDS may once again help BJP to grab most seats.
Congress and BJP had a very close fight in 12 seats.
3M – You have committed such a sin by being born a Madhwa Brahmin. Pls change your stripes and start drinking more coffee.
Coffee Addict, oLLedE aaiytu.
It is good that Prof. and Capt. steal Congress’ vote-share, it will save us(hoping you don’t evade taxes) a lot of money!
My sources told me that, in Mysore, hullnOru gave money and congress, a seerE! Stupid BJP didn’t give anything. But the vote of that source is always to asta.
Either BJP’s arrogant or they are wise enough not to bribe them without any use. :P
AddictrE, Madhvas don’t become BJP supporters by default, even our Dr. Ramesh claims to be one!
Keralaloo(apartha maaDkobEDi) account open maaDatante BJP, that’d be cool!
Coffee kudiyod kadime maadi. Aarogyakke olledalla. :)
On points raised by Nripatunga.
My assumption of the new voters preferring the BJP, is based on the study of the voting behaviour in the three elections held between 1999 to 2008.
During this period, the electorate in Karnataka went up by around 50 lakhs, the poll turn out increased by 35 lakhs. The Congress share of votes did not go up by single vote during the period. As a matter of fact it suffered a small erosion to the extent of around two lakh votes. It was similar experience for the JDS too. The only obvious inference is that all the new voters plumped for the BJP, whose votes tally showed a quantum jump.
A study of the election figures in Karnataka for the past couple of elections reveals an interesting aspect of the lower poll turn out not coming in the way of the vote share of the two principal parties going up.
The BSP in Karnataka is a new political entity and is yet to take political roots in Karnataka. Mr Jayanna may be popular in Chitradurga but it is very difficult at this moment to make a guess on how badly he would affect the prospects of the principal contenders.
The influence of the rebel candidates of any party in a parliament constituency appears to have been exaggerated. All of them have minimal influence in terms of following, which does not materially alter the balance of power.
When I talk of the new voters, I have only referred to those who have registered afresh after the 2008 elections. It cannot be said that somebody deliberately stayed back in 2008 and has come forward to register as voters now.
how much votes he will get, My It had happenned even when simultaneous polls were held for the Loksabha and state assembly in 1999 and 2004. Both the Congress and the BJP had secured more votes in the parliamentary segment than in the assembly. Nripatunga is certainly right that the lower turn out helps the traditional parties rather than the new ones. The two traditional parties in the field in the lS elections
the comments list on almost every single article on churumuri makes me wonder what that crap was that we used to learn in school,”Unity in Diversity” if i remember correctly. Sigh…The entire constitution has changed and the laws are different, and the politics of current India is a completely different ball game as compared to yesteryears. And YET, some people are so f***kin stuck on the “Brahmins are to blame for everything” song.
I wonder if CA is addicted to stuff other than coffee, or is it just the non-stop media induced brahmin-bashing that stops him from using his own brains with regards to this aspect, i wonder…hmmm.
Interesting and well argued analysis. I must say MMM has been rather bold to even predict the numbers here. The only question that could be raised is whether a significant chunk of the new voters will again vote as per previous trends. In the period between 1999 to 2004 admittedly the BJP gained but it was part of the opposition so it derived benefit of anti -incumbency. More importantly as it was a party that had not been in any previous government till then, there was a novelty factor at play as well.
In the past 5 years it has been part of the ruling dispensation twice. This is the major difference this time. It needs to be seen if being in power has made any impact.
1999-2004 definatly BJP has seen a increase in vote base because it was assumed to be a party of difference and it never had to face any anti incumbency mostly because it was out of power most of the times and at the time it was in power all the incumbency/anti incumbency credits went to HDK.
But now people have seen 9 months of ruling by BJP.well nothing has gone well.Especially the current and ration card issue which is the most burning issue although media completly ignores it.
I am sure people will defiantly punish ruling government for that.
I am putting my preidctions based on various analsis of seat by seat basis
My analysis is
BJP 6( Udupi,bijapur,bagalkot,dharwad,bangalore north, bellary)
CONG 8 ( davangere,mangalore,chikkodi,gulbarga,bidar,raichur,chikaballapur,chamarajnagara)
JDS 5(bangalore rural, bangalore central,tumkur,mandya,hassan)
seem to be pretty much fixed
The seats which is pretty tough are
Bangalore south (between cong and BJP)
Koppal (between Cong and JDS)
Mysore (triangular fight)
Chitradurga(a quadrilateral fight)
Shivamogga( a fight betwen cong and BJP)
Kolar(a fight between cong and BJP)
uttara kannada(a fight between cong and BJP)
belgavi (a triangular fight)
So my total predictions are
bigger ranges can be attributed to the 7 seats which are highly unpredictable
One more point which i want to add here, JDS has not fielded its candidates in 6 odd centres.Although in first glance it might look ignorable as JDS do not have substantial votes to win here.
But a closer look into VS results or LS results of 2004 will say that JDS was crucial enough to decide congress victory or defeat.
Now this gives rise to important question as to whether Congress can reap benefits of JDS absence.And considering the vote base of JDS in north karnataka which is more or less comming from backward caste, i feel congress should be able to reap benefitt there.
One example is JDS presence in 2004 Davangere LS election.
here Congress lost by 30k votes previously.Now again the same candidates are there.But JDS has almost made its candidates dummy.
Previously JDS had fielded chennayya vodiyar who was like kula devru for kurubas of davanagere.even without canvassing for one day due to illness he got 1.6 lakh votes.
Now if we assume Kurubas will vote enbloc for congress no factor like new voters or something can prevent Congress from winning here.
This is what internal understanding can change things around.
The analysis Mohan has given is just a kind of previous report analysis.
It gives more importance to numbers than ground relaities.hence i do not agree with his methodology.
There appears to be some confusion or misunderstanding of the purpose of this of study and a possible bias of one or other kind in coming to conclusions.
Mine is a purely academic study done with a view to demystify the election surveys made mostly on the basis of presumptions, assumption and facts, which cannot be proved. .
And the conclusion drawn is what the study has revealed and remains untainted by any bias political or otherwise .
The essential base of my study, are the the votes secured by the political parties in the election. In a way it is a most secular approach for the elections since, it steers clears of falling into the trap of castes and communities, prejudices theire number and all that.
One may not agree with the inferences drawn but the facts on which inference is drawn are incontrovertible. There are all the figures put out by the Election Commission and hence totally authetic..
It would be help the study further, if somebody can suggest some more ways of improvising the analysis of the election data, so that election surveys are understaken on the basis of the provable data and written in a manner which can be understood by the common readers instead of confusing them with the mumbo jumbo of academic jargon.
Attention Nripatunga: the behaviour of the new voters is based on the performanance of the three elections held between 1999 to 2008 – in a decade’s period and not between 1999-2004.
At the national level, it can been seen that despite the increase in the electorate and poll turn out substantially in each election, the two principal contenders, the BJP and Congress get very little by way of addition, while the major chunnk goes in favour of the regional parties, whose clout is on the increase. That the new voters have bestowed attention of BJP appears to be particular trait of the Karnataka elections.
Re: prediction. of Nripatunga. I have no dispute with it. You have your basis to come to the inference. My base for the same slightly differs..
in my personal opinion, the strategic alliance betweenjd(s) and congress will benefit them and will erode the expected seats from BJP.
My personal forcast will be
one can only sympathize with mr . madan mohan.
this can be considered as musings of a frustrated BJP LOYALIST who cas stare a humiliating defeat of the paty in loksabha elections.
it is painful to see NAMMA CHURUMURI becoming mouthpiece of CASTIEST, FASCIST , TOXIC organisation called bjp.
Brashta Janara Party will receive a definite thumbs down .
swaabhimaani brahmanaru will never support a corrupt syndicate like BJP. atleast i wont.
wait for the match winning performance of kumaraswamy on may 16.
“CASTIEST, FASCIST , TOXIC” – Ridiculous. The BJP may be a lot of things but these three charachteristics are shared across the board by all parties including the (in)famed JD(S).
“wait for the match winning performance of kumaraswamy on may 16.”
baree kumaranE? appOrdu yEn gati?
roll call hakidakke thanks
MMM talks about how surveys are done based on assumptions.
His own analysis is based on assumptions or track record of previous elections.
On both counts he could be dead wrong.
1. he assumes, that even in this election, that most new voters will vote for BJP. and based on that, he makes a grand prediction that BJP will win more than 18 seats.
His predictions based on past electoral trends, without taking into account current political mood, is completely off mark. For example, i sensed a swing away from BJP in bangalore south. I really doubt if BJP has added any new voters into its kitty. Facing anti incumbency, Ananth Kumar has only lost votes, not added.
My sense is that urban young college goers have voted against incumbent Ananth Kumar. Proof?
2. In India, not two elections are the same. Past electoral trends (1998 to 2004 ) cannot be an indicator of things to come.
When you stick your neck out and make a prediction based on arithmetic of past electoral trends, then i must say your basis for predicting elections is off track
Prediction of Election results depend on
1) Past history
2) New voters
3) Incumbency of state govt.(or non incumbency)
4) Merit of the individual candidates of each party. For example a strong cong candidate can actually beat a BJP man, in a traditionally safe BJP seat. Example Bangalore South. But, MMM does not take into account the strength of individual candidates while making his predictions.
5) Caste of the candidate. Bangalore Central would have been a sure Cong seat, had JDS not fielded a Muslim candidate. NOw, clearly the divions of votes are helping BJP in Bang Central. His prediction that BJP will win Bangalore Central is because of addition of new voters…i dont buy that analysis. I beleive BJP will win Bang south, because of division of minority votes.
One can’t predict elections based on just one parameter of past electoral trends. Prediction elections depends on a whole lot of complex parameters, of which I have listed merely five.
MMM spent 40-50 years of his life sending reports of ribbon cutting ceremonies and who said what to ‘ The Hindu ‘.
He is now at least trying to write or analyse like a journalist (retired?!).
Please allow him to do it.
If i summary the points which decide the outcome are
1) Candidates (It includes everything ranging from his caste,age and name factor)
2) Position(ruling or opposition) and performance of the party to which candidate belong
3) Traditional base of the parties
4) Incumbency or Anti incumency
5) percentage of Voting
The reports put forward by mohan can only give some insights of Vote base of parties and nothing else.
I am damn sure that Jayanna of BSP will definatly get around 1.5 lakhs votes in chitradurga which can never be imagined with idealogy used by mohan.
This report can come to the use mostly in case of very very low voting percentages where party bases comes into effect.
PS: I do nto agree that BJP is winning in bangalore central.zameer has a very good hold among slums in his constituentcy and added with low voting (48%) might see him winning.
A big businessman and activist Shahid Mohsin from Bangalore has conducted a detailed survey/study of Muslim voting patterns in Karnataka.
Some interesting points.
1. BJP will get 17 (+/-2)
2. Congress 8 (+/-2)
3. JDS 3 (+/-2)
– Muslim vote percentage is the lowest in the LS polls across Karnataka (except Dakshina Kannada)
– Average Muslim vote percentage is less than 50% across the state.
– Nearly 20% Muslims have voted for BJP.
– Triangular fight helps BJP. Because JDS gets more Muslim votes than Congress.
– Middle class / Upper middle class Muslims may think about national issues and vote for Congress and may consider BJP communal.
– But, the lower class and lower middle class Muslims go by local candidates, not by party. It has helped BJP in many seats.
– Contary to popular beliefs in the media, rural people are not unhappy with the BJP government in the state. Including Muslims, majority don’t think that Yeddyurappa is a bad CM. He is still popular.
BJP leaders like Jagadish Shettar, Veeranna Charanthimatha and P C Gaddigowdar are considered good and secular. They always get a huge chunk of Muslim votes.
– Even in Bangalore North, Central and Haveri, many Muslims have voted for the BJP. Many Muslims in Basavanagudi have voted for BJP! Because they consider local Congress leaders very bad. Ananthkumar’s wife’s mid-day meal scheme has generated a lot of good will among poor Muslims.
The same Shahid Mohsin got K’taka assembly results right in 2008. He had predicted 105 seats for BJP. He has a very good track record.
Shahid Mohsin could be bang on. Quite a substantial number of Muslims do vote for BJP.
Clearly shows the pseudo secular character of BJP. I have always maintained BJP is very good in minority appeasing. they have outdone Congress in this game.
I do agree with his analysis on the number of seats each party could win.
Shahid Mohsins predicitions appear to similar to the one put out by MMM.
Does this merit Shahid being called as Madhva Bramhin, Pejawar shishya and confirmed BJP supporter?
Coffee addict Yeddy popular in rural areas..come on. Don’t be kidding. There were power cuts for more than 10 hours in villages and how can he be popular. He came to power riding the wave of power transfer fiasco. Did the power demand in the state went bad all of the sudden after he came to power?. Remember it’s a recession period and lot of industries which were major consumers of power have closed down or have downsized. Don’t tell that center didn’t give power to state. There was JD(S)-BJP coalition before and at that time power situation was not that bad.
@coffee addict – 3M shows signs of evolution from mere reporting to analysis. How about you? Would you care to explain what you were doing and what you are doing now? Are you showing signs of Manganinda Maanava movement?
Chaaritrya vadhe thumbaa easy aagi maadabahudu – simply because he does not agree with your world views!!
i think we must wait for 16 may.
Boss, My prediction is based on region.
Mumbai karnataka – BJP
Hale mysooru – JDS
Hyderabad karnataka – Cong
Innu Dakshina kannada and Madhya karnata probably BJP and Cong will do Kittata.
So totally BJP expected more than 10
Cong somewhere in between 5-10
Innu alidu ulididdu JDS mathe pakshetararu
Congratulations, Mohan. It appears now you were spot on!
A big businessman and activist Shahid Mohsin from Bangalore has conducted a detailed survey/study of Muslim voting patterns in Karnataka.
Some interesting points.
1. BJP will get 17 (+/-2)
2. Congress 8 (+/-2)
3. JDS 3 (+/-2)
This guy has got this perfectly right.
Veteran Journalist Mattihalli Madan Mohan’s predictions on BJP’s prosects in the Loksabha elections has almost come true. Though not 100 percent, a bit less than that. Those who criticise him might not know his background. He is perhaps one single person who could properly comment on the political scene both in Karnataka and Goa.
As for as I personally know him for more than three decades, Madan Mohan is not a supporter of any political party, but a journalist with an independent views.