Why didn’t ol’ William ask: ‘What’s in a number?’

arun-nehruArun Nehru in Deccan Chronicle:

“The situation is very complicated for all three formations (United Progressive Alliance, National Democratic Alliance and the Third Front) and few can predict today the picture that will emerge after results are declared on May 16….

“My assessment is that both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will maintain and perhaps improve upon their 2004 Lok Sabha numbers.

“I also think that the Left will drop from 60-plus to 35-40 seats and the grand alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) will drop from 65 to about 30-35 seats. The trends in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh show a change in mood and whilst the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may improve its tally, both the BJP and the Congress may gain at the expense of the SP. In Bihar, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the BJP seem set to demolish the RJD and the LJP.”

Read the full article: Trends show mood swing in Bihar, UP

Arun Nehru: part I, part II, part III, part IV, part V, part VI, part VII