It now appears certain that neither the BJP nor the Congress, nor certainly the Third Front or the Fourth Front, is likely to bag 273 seats on its own to form the next government at the Centre. In other words, a single-party government is looks well nigh impossible, regardless of the claims of the various parties.
In such a scenario, the role of the President becomes important. Thanks to the precedent set by K.R. Narayanan in 1998 and 1999, followed by A.P.J. Abdul Kalam in 2004, Pratibha Patil is now duty-bound to invite the leader of the largest single party, and then seek letters of support from the other parties supporting it.
Which party do you think will have the largest number of seats in the next 16th Lok Sabha? Will Pratibha Patil follow the tradition set by her predecessors, or will she opt for an alliance on the ground that such a group would be able to pass a floor test?
Also read: CHURUMURI POLL: Who will win 2009 elections?
Subhash C. Kashyap on options before Pratibha Patil
Congress will more or less retain its strength in Delhi, Karnataka, MP, Bihar(which was very low anyways), Chattisgarh, Gujarat (contrary to BJP sweep, congress will hold on to its early tally here). Which means in these states it is zero profit, zero gain.
Congress will definitely suffer losses in Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Himachal, Uttarakhand and Andhra Pradesh, all amounting to around 18 seats.
Congress will gain in Rajasthan, Maharashtra (Raj Thackeray will split Shiv sena vote substantially, helping Cong), Orisssa, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Nort Eastern States, West Bengal, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh (surprise surprise Cong is gaining here in a significant way), ..which amounts to a gain of over 45 seats.
So , net gain is 45 – 18 = 27 seats.
Add this 27 to the old tally of 145 seats and you get 172 seats.
Being cautious I shall drive down another 10 seats, just in case. So it comes to a healthy 162 seats.
Let’s look at BJP’s tally.
BJP will more or less retain its strength in Gujarat, Chattisgarh, Karnataka Madhya Pradesh, (already on a high in these states) Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, North Eastern States, and Delhi.
Which means neither profit nor loss in these states.
BJP will definitely gain in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand. The gains in these states will be to the tune of 28 seats.
BJP will suffer losses in Rajasthan, Orissa, Maharshtra, and Punjab to the tune of 20 seats.
So net gain for BJP would be 28-20 = 8 seats.
Add this 8 seats to the old tally of 137 seats and what you get is 145 seats.
Being cautious, I shall add ten more seats and you get 155 seats.
SO in the best scenario BJP gets 155 seats and Cong in its worst scenario gets 162 seats.
Clearly, Cong is going to be the single largest party.
I wonder how your readers think BJP will emerge as the biggest party.
>I wonder how your readers think BJP will emerge as the biggest party.
Through their mouse and its left button depending on the orientation of the mouse! :P
Are you also a very informed person like our Addict Saheb, or are these your own speculations?
It is a pity that the two national parties are jockeying for the single largest party position in loksabha instead of trying to secure majority.
It does not matter whether the Congress emerges as the single largest party or not. It is surely to be called to form the govenrment courtesy the benevolence of the President Mrs. Patil. Afterall basically she is a congress workers. Her party loyalty cannot be wished away.
If Congress is not to emerge as the single largest party, it will try to cobble up enough numbers in a post poll exercise and stake its claims to form the government. Mrs Patil would surely oblige.
How can you be so certain that neither the BJP nor the Congress nor the Third Front or the Fourth Front is likely to bag 273 seats on its own to form the next government at the Centre?
Actually, the Congress has a trump card in this matter: Pratibha Patil.
Even if it emerges second largest, it will claim that the UPA is still larger than the NDA, and before you know it Laloo and Co. are writing out letters of support faster than they can count the bags… of money. As dear old Congress-i she will heed the call of the Mistress and invite Congress to form the Government all the same…
Even if Congress gets 100 seats, it says it has support of all the parties including left (except BJP and few sworn anti congress parties). Manya rashtrapathi will invite the congress party to form the Government and gives it ample time to prove the majority. This is what is going to happen.
Left will be the first party to join hands and bring along Biju JD, JD-S and JD-U. Mamath Bannerji will be dumped for poor election v. Lalu and Paswan to will be dumped. Pawars NCP will join power at the center again saying that Sonia is unacceptable as PM.
Others like TRS, & PRP will be bought, and TDP will sit alone as it is sworn enemy of congress. Congress will also rule the AP state with TRS and PRP support.
Jayalalitha will join hands with UPA and Thiru Karuna will be unceremoniously dumped by congress because he has hardly won any MP seats. Jayalalitha will be promised the sacking of DMK at the opportune time.
BSP will be split and the splinter along with SP will join UPA.
After 2 years, Left will withdraw support to UPA on the issue of foreign policy.
BJP will again try its luck in 2011 elections but this time with Modi as its PM candidate
Prathiba Patil may just be a blessing in disguise for the BJP. If BJP emerges the largest party but the President calls Congress to form the govt then BJP can go to the people like in Karnataka after JD(s) stabbed them on their back and come back with a majority when the next general election is held.
Have Two party system or form National Government ?
The politics in India is going to dogs with the mushrooming of smaller parties in almost all the states.
These parties having single digit seats along with the independents as holding democracy to ransom and it is high time that the elected representatives and others who care for the upholding of democratic values should join together and amend the law so that there would be only two party system in the country..
The concept of National Government has not developed in India. To form National Government National Parties should have mutual understanding about problems faced by the country. They have to chalk out the solutions for mutual agreement. In implementation also mutual cooperation is required. Coalition , consisting of so many parties is to be avoided .Only two parties which have bulk of representation should form a National Government.. It would help in avoiding horse trading.
BJP WILL DEFINITELY BECOME THE SINGLE LARGEST PARTY, LOOKING INTO THE RESPONSE FROM PUBLIC.
THERE’S NO DOUBT THAT WILL TAKE OVER THE PRIMEMINSTERSHIP FROM MAN MOHAN SINGH
THIS TIME CONGRESS WILL SUFFER A HEAVY LOSS.
SO, LET US WAIT AND WATCH. IN ALL PROBABLITIES, BJP
WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. ISN’T IT?
Hats-off to You & Ur Predictions Mr.Simple…!!