R. Jagannathan in DNA argues that the BJP lost the plot not in March 2009, when the bugle was sounded for the latest election, but in 2004, when it stumbled to a shock defeat:
“The party’s public behaviour since then has been that of a bad loser, and nobody loves such a person. Soon after the defeat, we saw Sushma Swaraj threatening to shave off her head if Sonia Gandhi was made prime minister. The party looked foolish when Sonia abdicated in favour of Manmohan Singh.
“Then there was the unseemly behaviour over the UPA’s decision to induct “tainted” ministers. Sure, there was a political point to be made, but the BJP shot itself in the foot by becoming obstructionist in Parliament. Nobody was amused.
“In every subsequent encounter with the UPA—the Ram Sethu affair, the Afzal Guru episode—the party acted churlishly, opposing for the sake of opposing, and creating a ruckus in Parliament. The party’s thumbs-down to the Indo-US nuclear deal took the cake: it tried to scuttle something it had itself been working towards when in power. Everybody could now see the BJP’s desperation to score points.
“The last act in this tragedy was scripted by L.K. Advani himself, with his ill-thought-out taunts about Manmohan Singh being a “weak prime minister”. It took the Sonia-Rahul-Manmohan combine just two weeks to demolish him, providing a fitting finale to five years of foolish opposition. In short, the BJP was in self-destruct mode from May 2004.”
Read the full article: How BJP lost the plot
Can we stop this nonsense of “voter taught a lesson”? Come on, voter does not give an eff. Majority of the people are effin stupid. or at the very least they simply don’t bother. Do you really think Sushma swaraj statement 5 years ago has a bearing on this election? Give me a break! If they had such a memory and intellect, would this country be in such a mess in the first place?
CNN IBN is saying – India votes, world salutes. Why is it hard for media to simply admit that majority of the population is either plain stupid or just does not give a sh*t? Why come up with such self pleasing explanations? Indian democracy is all about mass hysteria. There is no logic to it. Even the so called social engineering and religious issues least matter; development simply doesn’t.
How very clever of these brilliantly educated people writing in English to be able to explain results after they come out…. without the slightest bit of evidence to back up their claims. Blind men – elephants.. you know the story.
The truth of course is that the BJP was a churlish and stupid opposition in the Lok Sabha. Its behaviour probably cost it the support of parties as the NDA, and the the claim as a responsible party, but to attribute that to its loss is folly.
The most middle class of cities (as defined by percentage of non-slum dwellers) Bangalore was swept by the BJP, while Congress and its allies swept Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata. This election, like the last one, was a collection of state elections where voters punished poor governance and rewarded better governance. Only in Gujarat and UP (and maybe Rajasthan), do we see a marked difference between the parties in power at the State and the parties of candidates voted in, for the national elections (where elections to both were held close to or at the same time as each other). In both cases, it can possibly be attributed to regional leaders (Modi and Maya) taking their eye off the local and concentrating on the national to their parties’ detriment.
Development does seem to figure in the results, but it is entirely a local thing.
No one votes on GDP figures.
Though illogical article, I can ask two queries based on this.
1. Is loosing in an election proves the loser to be foolish? If so Hillary must be foolish, McClain must be foolish and so on.
2. Is it intelligence to vote congress to power every time? If so, why the hell constitution allows so many parties? Let us abandon all those, Every five years, let congress working committee chose a new prime minister or decide to give existing prime minister another chance. One India, One party. Most of the people anyways give a damn ‘who rules’; we are just here to be ruled.
When does this BJP bashing stop?? will it or will it not?? isn’t the media acting childish? come on guys give us a break… do not give stupid analsys… Advani and the BJP folks are defenitely entitled for a better treatment from the media… the more media becomes hysterical about BJP people become more sympethetic.. I suppose media has still not learnt the lession from Varun’s case….
Manmohan being a weak prime minister was his strenghth, Advani being strong was his weakness…
Spot On.Abhi ! very well said.
Manmohan singh is weak and still weak. voters give a rats behind to what Advani said or manmohan was asked to say. Indian minorities will always vote on religious lines…and majority will vote on casteist lines..
all the other explanation ranging from varun gandhis speech to rahuls charisma are pure bull crap progagated by the paid media. Do you think Mumbaikars care a rats behind for this election when only 35 percent of them show up…despite 26-11 ?
Abhi: Indian electorate is more than sum of its parts. It is indeed wrong to attribute to individual Indian voter an intelligence that in reality doesn’t exist.
But, when the word “Indian voter” is used in plural – in substitution of electorate, a pattern emerges from a seeming shambles. Of course some interpretation of that pattern will be crazy – just as the interpretations of Nostradamus utterances!! :-)
However, some messages (think of them as patterns) are stark and are self evident.
For example:
1. A national vote swing of +2% is hardly a massive verdict in favor of Congress as is being made out. But, +2-3% is all it takes now to make a huge difference in our fractured polity! This also means that predicting elections is going to be impossible. A minor swing of 2-3% can happen at last minute.
This can give hope to both national parties as it’d be possible for either of them to be wiped out. They can improve on their performance by convincing a small share of voters to shift and each election can be a lottery!!
2. A negative swing in one election need not be very bad. It can be made up by effective changes in ones thought and presentation. Congress has done that this time, and BJP can do that in the next.
Same can be said of communists: Communists are far from finished in WB or Kerala as is being made out.
3. Development certainly counts as a prime motivation for voting. The corollary of this pattern is that, Indian voter cares much less if you are secular, non-secular, communist or other variety of ideologies as long as you can deliver on what he needs. i.e. Indian electorate follows Deng’s dictum of “Cat’s color doesn’t matter as long as it catches the Mice”.
4. Caste is a factor, but only a minor one. It may be a major factor in about 20% of the seats in any given election.
5. A Majority of the electorate can’t said to be a static vote-bank. They aren’t stuck by any dogma that they’ll keep voting in the same way decade after decade. Each party perhaps has a very small core voters (votebank) and what matters is if it can swing the majority flexible voters, who vote differently each time. This is all the more evident in the growth of hitherto non-existent parties doing very well in some states (BJP in Karnataka for example).
A corollary of this is BJP can loose out in Karnataka/Gujarat if Congress retires its current leadership, and brings in fresh blood and energy with Radically different platform for development, rather than a promise of same old lethargic corruption.
7. Anti-incumbency isn’t a rule. If the dynamics are right and an honest work has been done, there is a good chance of a party coming back again and again. Gujarat is a good example, Naveen patnaik too.
Lesson for congress in this pattern is that it will need to find more local leaders who keep delivering like Sheela Dixit.
Now, with all the above patterns being self-evident – can we really say these patterns are not messages? And that we can’t use the word “Indian voter” as a plural?
The BJP made more than its share of mistakes and paid for it. But I also think that the media had a big hand in handing this election to the Congress. It deliberately related incidents by Mutalik to BJP, went hammer and tongs over Varun Gandhi while giving a free pass to similar comments from other politicians (e.g. head of AP Congress) and questioned the BJP as if it was ruling the country for the last five years. Think about it, BJP ended up having to defend Kandahar while the Congress rarely had to defend 26/11. In essence, the media created an anti-incumbency against the BJP and did Congress’s dirty work for them.
Until the BJP gets its media strategy right, it will not be able to go anywhere, notwithstanding all the course corrections that it needs to undertake. The sooner it realizes that the media is never going to give it a fair deal, the faster its recovery will begin.
I agree with Ankit, BJP needs to work out on making friends with the media.. they have to make their voices heared… let them rework on the their media managers. BJP should handover complete media management to Arun jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, they have to chuck out Rajnath/Jaswant/Yashwant etc., mercilessly…
The comments are much much more interesting, insightful and to-the-point than the theories being put forward by the journalists & so called political analysts…
if a govt. performs, it is voted back.
As simple as that.
if UPA hadn’t performed, then BJP would have been voted back to power. Inspite of Sushma’s hysterics on shaving her head, inspite of BJP’s churlish behaviour on nuclear deal Ram Sethu etc.
All these ‘brilliant political analysts’ couldn’t sense Congress revival in UP nor could they sense Congress giving a tough fight to BJP in MP (12-16).
They were so sure that AIADMK would sweep TN 39-0. ANd they were pretty much sure YSR in Andhra would lose seats.
No ‘political pundit’ thought otherwise. They were unanimous in their herd mentality.
Now that the results are out, they start to ‘intellectualise’ the defeat of BJP. Their attempt at post mortem looks unconvincing, and lacks credibility.
With their gifted written skills, they try to seduce readers into believing their point of view.
Somehow, Voters don’t seem to buy the media’s fluff. Voters have roundly and soundly defeated the media and its shrill campaign in this election. here are a few examples.
1. Media and its analysts made a hue and cry over Mumbai blasts. Media went on and on and on for 10 days about it. They believed Cong would be thrashed at the hustings. But Cong alliance got all the six seats of Mumbai.
2. Media and its poltical pundits were very shrill in its campaign against BJP’s Talibanisation of Mangalore. The voters gave a thumbs up to BJP, not just in Mangalore, but whole of Karnataka.
3. Analysts and hysterical TV reporters created a ruckus over Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar. Congress won Delhi 7-0. COngress also won Punjab 8-5. Media wanted us to believe that COng would be hurt, because Sikhs were angry.
4. Varun Gandhi won Pilibihit by 2 lakh margin, inspite of TV relentlessly demonising Varun
5. Nobody has demonised Modi as much as the media. Yet Modi continues to win election after election after election.
Which leads me to believe is there a disconnect between what people want to see and what TV channels project on the screens? Are people put off by the high decibel reporting of TV?
Is there something called a TV issue and a real issue?
Mangalore was clearly a TV issue, because it did not quite resonate with the rest of Karnataaka. So was Tytler’s issue..So was Varun Gandhi’s…you guys get the drift.
TVs, newspapers and sundry poltitical pundits are on the same side of the fence: the inability to guage public mood
Reddy J – “and majority will vote on casteist lines..”
– I agree with you and why not? Caste is certainly an important factor for our people. I see nothing wrong in it. Let us remember that by voting along caste lines, they are still voting as Hindus. A political party like the BJP would have been able to garner this support by projecting a Hindu agenda that encompasses all caste interests. Hindus seem to be split along caste lines only because they have never been presented with a party that is uncompromisingly Hindu.
As for cosmetic adjustments that are being suggested; nothing will help when the soul carries no conviction. The BJP was born of a need. A need to speak for the Hindu nation. It died the day it betrayed this need. All of it’s supporters, myself included, have hoped against hope that it would recover from it’s illness. Sad.
It’s nice to see Simple acknowledge something other than a runaway mandate for the UPA, but he’s right.
However what I call performance may be different from another person. To most impoverished people a government that hands out doles may seem to be it’s peak performance. So, I feel we should be careful while giving credit to government “performance”.
Hindus in Pilibhit or Mangalore are obviously not molesters and killers. Yet they voted for purported supporters of such an agenda. Are the secularists at least now, ready to go into the merits of what may have motivated Hindus in places like these to vote the way they did?
Palahalli
I was only merely stating a fact that TV issues aren’t quite resonating with the public. Probably it’s got to do with the way the channels overdo everything to the point of nausea.
TV news are beginning to resemble the Balaji TV serials: loud, brash, insensitive and in your face.
For instance, today after the swearing in ceremony, it was grating to see channel after channel, reporter after reporter asking the same lifeless question to every cabinet minister ” which portfolio would you prefer’?
And minister after minister kept saying ” it is the prime minister’s prerogative.”
yet the reporters continued to pop the same questions.
Do they actually think it will improve their TRPs with such annoying questions.
Only suckers like me watch it, I guess.
“Only suckers like me watch it, I guess.” – I guess so because I was at work ;) Just kidding.
Seriously now, I feel the media in our country thinks they are on a mission all the time. They have the power of God. These fellows are too arrogant and crass. Merit comes last. Basic human decency and consideration comes laster!
“Indian electorate is more than sum of its parts. It is indeed wrong to attribute to individual Indian voter an intelligence that in reality doesn’t exist.”
Harkol, its only your wishful thinking. How can a bunch of individual morons make a intelligent mass? (I am talking of the average Indian intellect here, before someone tries to prove how intelligent he/she is). As Christopher Hitchens says – individuals are sometimes right; mass is rarely right; mob is always wrong. When it comes to indian elections we are dealing with mob hysteria.
I am not advocating for BJP here as I can not decide who is worse of the 2. My point is there is no collective conscience at work here. Its just mere random probability that is at work that got congress victory. The patterns you are seeing are all your imaginations.
If technology allows television to move to the internet someday, it might mean the death of totally passive consumption. Anyone with a camera and some resources would be able to broadcast back to the world. Soon-to-be revolutionaries like our own Sir VA will have another weapon to scratch their itch and stick it to the man. We can see it emerging in the west with blogs/social networking/posting videos etc. Or take churumuri itself.
If these channels of information which allows users to participate with their thoughts not just consume start to lure away TV viewer and entice them to think on their own, it might start to get interesting.
Though if that will be better or worse than the current mindless passive TV watching is another question.
Simple
You have clearly stated what is in the majority public’s mind. The best we do is switch over to the sports channel to avoid this constant, committed media bombardment.
dhool chatayee, achcha laga.
analysts or not, pro or against, that doesn’t change the encouraging result. and those who like analysing trends may well want to look at how it’s going from 2004 to 2009. I look forward to 2013.
here’s a great read: http://tehelka.com/story_main41.asp?filename=Ne300509mrs_gandhi.asp
(How well the man writes…!)