An octopus, it is said, can make a great economist. Reason: it can say “on the other hand” seven times more than their more than two-handed counterparts. Especially when the annual tamasha called Union budget is around.
For weeks and months, pundits, policy wonks, television talking heads and other interested parties fulminate on what needs to be done and what is to come. Numbers with a lot of zeroes are thrown around. In the end, after every “show”, it is just a lot of on the one hand and on the other hand.
Pranab Mukherjee‘s budget is no exception.
The Congress’s surprising victory in the general elections, which allowed it to form a government without the support of the Left parties, and the President’s address to the opening session of the new Lok Sabha, had lead many cheerleaders (fully clothed) to presume that the reform rath would roll out.
In reality, yesterday’s budget was a page straight out of the Kuala Lumpur Police Department manual with not a squeak to pep up the markets. Yet, there is so much thunder and lightening in the papers and television, it is difficult to understand whether it was good, bad or abominable.
But at least we heard some nice lines:
1. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar: “The only constituencies this budget addresses are the constituency of the aam admi and the constituency of 10, Janpath.”
2. Ashok Wadhwa: “The 2,000-point jump in the Sensex when the Congress voted back to power is as undeserved as the 800-point fall after the budget.”
3. Bibek Debroy: “If con is the antithesis of pro, then Congress is the antithesis of progress.”
4. Sandeep A.: “If this is the budget of a newly sworn-in government with a majority of its own and without left support, imagine the same budget in its fifth year with an election to face.”
What’s the best line you heard? And the worst?
I think Bibek Debroy has got the best punch line. Ashok Wadhwa quote is quite sensible as well!
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The budget lacked nothing, unless you expect the Finance Minister to hawk his trousers to satisfy the corporates and the stock market. What it lacked, however, was articulation; the guy lacked the guts to commit himself in the Budget Statement what his party said before the elections, and as guided by the Cabinet, the President said in her address to the Joint Session of the Parliament. Mark my words – within two weeks, the markets would be where they were and the ‘experts’ on TV netowrks – hard to believe they would – would eat their humble pies. And so would newspapers which think not what they publish; the market is their guide.
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Bibek debroy has only copied what Nani palkhivala has said many years ago. pro x con; progress x congress.
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I read it in HT that every budget is boring. Every budget is a “yawn”. But this time it was a “tactical yawn”. :-)
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Hope you will highlight this
Ananth Kumar referred to a proposal to upgrade 309 railway stations, of which 137 were in Bengal
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090708/jsp/nation/story_11209507.jsp
Unusually undisruptive rail roko by BJD
http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=9&theme=&usrsess=1&id=260277
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I agree: Bibek Debroy’s line is a true masterpiece… :)
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A very good analysis and comment indeed. But as a matter of fact, does it not hold good for every budget in the last 50 years!
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Budget is meant for crores of Aam Admi and not five hundred corporates.
Corporates are interested in increasing their company’s profits and their own salaries. There was a report in ET some time back that while many lakhs of Inians lost their jobs because of recession, the CEOs continued to get increments over and above their already massive salaries.
Corporates are only interested in fattening their own wealth and not the Aam Admi’s.
None of the arm chair economists like Swami and Bibke Debroy know what it is to live on a shoe string budget of lower income people.
So they continue to ‘expertly pontificate’ on what shold have been done.
Let these TV Economists go hungry one meal a day and they will overnight become socialists.
These ‘I-have-solutions-to-everything’ commentators seem to forever scowling and blaming the govt. for everything.
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If all the budgets are aam aadmi-focussed, then why doesn’t any of the TV channels have a/an aam aadmi in any of their discussion panels.
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The Sensex behaves as a delicate touch-me-not (chooi-mooi in Hindi) everytime the government takes an economic or political decision. There is no rationale for such behaviour if (as claimed by India Inc. honchos) the economy is inherently strong and growing even in recessionary times. The aam aadmi is far more resilient, he takes the rough and the smooth with equinamity. So why shouldn’t budgets focus on the common man instead of a contrived virtual index?
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The budget has not thrown up anything new, but simultaneously has not created major hiccups in the path to progress.
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Mr. Simple, why is UPA aka Congi is trying to keep the aam admi as aam admi for ever?? why is not trying to increase the level of aam admi…. as all of us know if they raise the level of aam admi then the cannot win the elections with thumping majority.
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Mr. Rajesh
Cong has earmarked unprecedented sums for Aam Admi.
NREGA and other rural schemes put more money in the hands of rural people
As a result rural demand for consumer items increases
Therefore economy gets a boost.
No party has ever done so much to Aam Admi as Congress has done.
Today, if there are 300 million middle class Aam Admi it is because of Shri Manmohan Singh’s liberalisation policies in early 90s.
Aam admi’s standard of living has risen by 10 time since our independence.
if this is not progress of Aam Admi, what is?
Today, a middle class chap can own a car, an expensive mobile phone, a flat, a foreign trip now and then, eating out in fancy restuarants, going to upmarket salons and gyms, and have a score of other materialistic posesssions which was almost impossible for any middle class man to achieve 25 years back.
If this is not progress of Aam Admi, what is?
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Mr. Simple, still our poverty rating is high… our literacy rate is low… population is more….. what does it mean…?? the reforms are not reaching the people whom it has to… you have to accept Congress has failed to take to the people….
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Bibek Sums it well.
Biggest problem in voting for congress – They just can’t seem to dump the leftist guys from West-Bengal (Mamata and pranab mukherji included).
Their economic policy got some shape only when they started focusing more on South-west politicians of India, trust the guys from east to screw things up!!
The strongest reason to vote for BJP is they are non-existent in East and Kerala! So have less representation of leftist ideologists.
If BJP can present itself more as a economically progressive party rather than just keep saying – “we stand for hindu’s so vote for us”, good portion of South-west India will vote for it.
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Mr. Rajesh
So you think the 300 million middle class indians don’t matter?
So you think that the raising of per capita income by ten times ever since independence does not matter?
so you think that the number of poor people coming down does not matter?
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Simple:
Per capita income has gone up by 10times, but costs have gone up by 100times since independence. Check the price of gold or any other commodity for reference.
No point in denying what even Hardcore congressies admit – They lost 2 decades in stupid policies, and are only doing somethings in half-minded fashion even today.
We lost out to chinese largely because of these failed policies. China had less per capita than India and today has left us behind by long way.
We had far more advantages than china, could more comfortably speak the language of Americans (english), who are China’s biggest customers. Still we choose to side with socialism, NAM and russians, and screwed our private sector in a quest for Babudom.
Anyone who justifies all this is ignoring the obvious.
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@Simple:
The biggest mistakes of Congress are:
1. Failure to build self-correcting systems which are resistant to corruption. Like the Postal department- which is very un-corrupt, the Indian army, and to an extent Railways – all built by the British
My mother is in the postal department and she says not even a paisa goes unaccounted and there is a rule for everything
2. Failure to usher in regulated capitalism – Nehru , I think brought his personal bias, and because there wasn’t a change of guard, the trend of socialism continued for many years. Indira Gandhi (or whatever) continued the same to just win elections.
3. When they say socialism in India, it usually means, socialism for the organized sector(i.e the government employees). Nobody really does anything to the crores of unorganized workers.
4. The most important of all the things is that the Congress(even the BJP for that matter) failed to bring two-child policy or some population control method. Because the population of poor people is so much
the supply of poor people is too much and they are ready to do job for very low costs, and because there is so much supply, they can’t even form cartels(read trade unions)
5. And when Congress says that it is allocating so much money for NREGA etc , it is good only if the money is ACTUALLY used for some PERMANENT structures. Otherwise it will be eaten by middlemen.
6. Failure to bring in electoral reforms. If this is not done, then there is no hope for a permanent solution fot this mess called the Indian democracy. If people spend money on elections, they will naturally want to get back a sizable amount more than that. Election is like a certain weight category boxing match played by people. But, when the referee allows a overweight criminal (read politician who spends crores on election), you can expect the match to be free and fair.
The only good thing the previous UPA government did was bringing RTI. Hats off to that. We need such laws which will open up vistas. One law if crafted properly can make a hell lot of difference.
I am sad that people support BJP or Congress just for the heck of it. We need good politicians, that’s all.
Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi -Bad. Kapil Sibal, S M Krishna – Good
Advani – Bad. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Nitish Kumar – Good
I want to make a prediction here. Suresh Kumar of BJP from Karnataka will be the Nitish Kumar of the future. He has potential.
Churumuri should do a poll(or study) on who has been the best ministers of Karnataka govt after one year
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The problem with India is in psychology of ‘Simple’. Lot of people are living in such a denial that they are not even ready accept that this country sucks. Being self critical, introspection just do not exist in our dictionary.
You can not fix that which you do not admit is broken.
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Simple,
How about bringing back the British – good?
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