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Gauging the mood of the people from zilla panchayat and taluk panchayat elections is akin to touching different parts of an elephant with a blindfold and arriving at conclusions that suit you.
It’s all in the interpretation.
The lead headlines from the two leading Kannada newspapers show us why.
The BJP’s hold over the 30 ZPs has gone up from 4 in 2005 to 12 this year; the number of seats its members occupy in those ZPs has shot up three fold from 145 to 441.
Out of the 176 TPs, BJP has gained control over 68 of them, more than the Congress (31) and JDS (29) put together.
Yet, for Vijaya Karnataka, which is furiously pedalling backwards, it is “aralada kamala”, the lotus that didn’t bloom. And, for Praja Vani, it is “aralida kamala”, the lotus that bloomed.
So, has the lotus bloomed because its ZP tally has entered double digits, or has it not bloomed because it has not been able to obtain a stranglehold like the Congress did in 2005, winning 22 of the 27 ZPs?
So, has the lotus bloomed because it has retained its hold over the Lingayat community in the northern parts of the State, or has it not bloomed because the Vokkaliga belt in south Karnataka still remains out of its grasp?
So, has the lotus bloomed because it has managed to put up a creditable performance despite the scams and scandals, or has it not bloomed because it has done so-so in scam and scandal-tainted Shimoga and Bellary?
Link via S.R. Swamy
churumuri 
Prajavani heading vindicates Rajan Darga’s claim of
pro-Hinduthva notion & staff of PV. VK is some what right
but not about JDS, which performed well if you compare with last
election and its the presence in the state.
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Prajavani headline is the most stupid and ill researched.
Compared to 2005, JDS’s strength has declined in the total number
of taluk panchayat seats and the total number of zilla panchayat
seats. How can it be ‘Chigurida JDS?’ Vijaya Karnataka is the best
headline. All three are losers because: 1) BJP has got only 38% of
the vote, which is really sad,considering that ruling parties
usually get 50% of the vote in panchayat elections. 2) BJP has not
got a majority either in ZP or TP – ruling parties have ALWAYS got
marjority. 3) Cong has declined in the number of zp and tp seats.
4) So has JDS
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I think the biggest looser is BJP. Being the party in power and spending crores of rupess and also misusing the Govt machinery, they managed only 12. In fact yeddy himself was sure about getting 20+. But it was Poor show. Shimoga and bellary is an alarm for CM and reddys.
Of course, congress did very badly. But they are in opposition and nothing much can be done sitting there. They should really get rid of groupism and come out united. Lack of one unanimous leader is a set back for them.
For JDS, It was a single man show, and they did reasonably Ok.
JDS has failed to impress in the nothern side. They really need to focus big time on the nothern side of karnataka.
Overall VK is partly right.
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Nice headline u have put
now even people can get satisfied taking the newspaper, and seeing their favorite party win and opposite party loss in same time,
IT HAPPENS ONLY IN INDIA
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As expected VK is rolling back to the TOI line of licking the Congress’ boots. So this kind of headline is expected. DH-PV is known for its anti-BJP line, so their headline is more reliable.
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Why does media try to analyze in a simplistic way using religion or caste? Is it just the question of Lingayat supporting BJP in the north and Vokkaliga’s supporting in the south?
It takes a lot more effort and insight to look at real factors which might have affected the election results. But do our reporters have the competence, time, resources, etc? The education they might have got while at school is definitely adequate. Later they could have educated themselves. But how many are interested.
In short let us not get carried by this simplistic and faulty analysis.
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Simple,
The Election analysis is not simple
1) Firstly Congress lost badly to JDS in Hassan,Mandya,Tumkur and Ramnagara Districts.The performance from Congress from these 4 large districts(except Ramanagara) was very dissapointing.
2) Secondly Congress seems to be on loosing its iron hold in Mysore and kolar districts(Again two large districts) to JD(S). JD(S) seem to have performed exceptionally well in 5 Constituencies of Mysore and 3 in kolar.JD(S) seems to be in consolidating its position in these two large districts and its expected to garner more strength by the entry of political big heads like Shankarlinge gowda and M Mahaevdu(benki). Siddaramaihas influence seem to be on down slide in Mysore district and Muniyappa’s stronghold in Kolar which should be a big worry for Congress in Old mysore region.
3) On the Other hand Congress seem to be improving again in Hyderabad karnataka and central karnataka.So for Congress its almost disaster in Old mysore region Barring Chamarajnagara and Chikkaballapura district.
4) JDS has performed pathectically in all parts of karnataka expect Devdurga(Raichur),Hiriyur(Chitradurga), Alanda(Gulbarga) and Bidar rural(Bidar). Its leaders like Basavanagouda patil yatnal,Bangarappa,Srinivasagowda etc have failed miserably.More over ot could not win even 1 taluk panchayat seat in bagalkot and won only 2-3 taluk panchayat seats in belgaum district.So barring vokkaliga strong hold of old mysore region its performance was pathetic. Its misnisters could not put good show in uttara kannada where they have two ministers or in recently won gulbarga south constituentcy.
5) Congress won has come in smaller districts like yadgir,chamrajnagara,chikkaballapura are not so inspiring.Uttara kannada was the only big fish which it could grab convincingly.So it should retrospect its infighting which has still not stopped.
6) BJP on other hand has proved its mettle again and convinclingly in Mumbai karnataka sweeping Dharwad,haveri,gadag,belgaum(very big constituentcy),bagalkot.Lingayat votebase has rescued BJP to a large extent and also in costal districts like Dakshin kannada, udupi,chikkamagaluru and kodagu largely due to its honest party workers and party base.
7) But BJP suffered setbacks in shimogga where Bangarappa stronghold soraba had to come for its rescue.In shimogga itself Tirthalli,bhadrvathi,sagara have gone against BJP. Soraba never had great loyal support for BJP. So BJP stronghold now seems to be confined in only 3 constituentcies which it needs to be carefull of.Unlike in hassan BJP has not been sucessfull in shimogga completly.
8) The Last election results have been replicated almost identically except BJP have lost few constituentcies.This should be a alarm bell for BJP if it has to win majority or else chances of Hung government is a real possibilty.
So my analysis is that although BJP has won many ZP seats,it needs to be aware of growing Congress influence in hyderabad and central karnataka and growing JDS influence in Old mysore region.JDS has been considerably weakened in hyderabad karnataka which could directly help congress. So BJP now has come up with plans to counter attack this.
The rebels of BJP are now becoming increasingly visible threats.See the performance of Belur gopalakrishna(sagara),D sudhakar(Hiriyur), Nagaraj(Nelamangala),Shivanagouda nayak(Devdurga),Narendra swamy(Malavalli) who have performed extreamly well and have won seats for the party which aligned.
It looks like Karnataka has been gripped under caste based voting by dominant communities.Now its the smaller communities which are going to be crucial in next elections i guess it could turn out to be hung assembly.Congres and BJP needs to be wary about this and more likely BJP.
BJP has to counter attack Kumaraswamy to stop his influence spreading to other parts of old mysore especially vokkaliga dominated parts of Bangalore city(read bangalore north).Already yeshwanthpur and other parts of bangalore have slowly started showing its inclination to JDS.Stopping JDS march into Bangalore city parts should be the highest priority for BJP. Any slip up here could directly hit BJP either through Congress grabbing the seat or JDS grabbing the seat.
As for as Minorities are considered they are still strongly with Ocngress and minority dominated seats are more likely to be remaining with Congress.But Congress leaders of Mumbai karnataka must be extreamly frightened with BJP. What happened to jarikiholi brothers(3 brothers have won) influence gone in Belgaum?
Totally its no win position for no party. From now on wards who ever makes faster moves will decide who will be in next government next time.
Congress – stop your infighting,Your party base is sinking.I still think if congress acts together and fast you have realistic chances of getting majority.Leave aside morality.No one cares of morality. Give tickets based on party strengths and not based on some formula given by high command.Show that you are as strong in opposition then giving people a thought on JDs being real opposition.
BJP – Stop infighting(reddy and yeddy),Hurt Kumaraswamy whenever possible,start planning on hyderabad karnataka, Stop JDs encrouching your Vote base especially in urban bangalore,else it could directly help Congress or JDS itself.
JDS – Stop dreaming about Mumbai karnataka.you are not going to win any seats there next time either.Concentrate on Bangalore(vokkaliga dominated constitutencties), un-conquered Old mysore regions like Kolar,mysore,chikkaballapura district and parts of chikkamagaluru and Bidar,uttara kannada, gulbarga and also shimogga.Get dissidents of other parties like Shivanand naik,Mc sudhakar,rajashekar patil,malikayya guttedar to your party fold and increase your party base.
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The times group wants all the news against BJP to get the so called secular kannada readers. One need to observe, there would be not even one news which may be local, national or international against Christians or Muslims. Nowadays VK is full of Ads and some masala news. VK completely lost it charm. All the colums in VK now speaks about Oneness(?), buddhivada(by buddhijeevis) etc etc. Wait and watch for some more time, Times group will search some columnist who will start Upper caste bashing in particular against Brahmins.
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Quality of Prajavani news coverage is diminishing day by day. It is time JMDs to wake up & take notice.
It is not just PV. Quality of news in its lowest grade in most of the kannada newspapers forget Vijay Karnataka a while. We will give them at least three to six months moratorium as the clean up drive is just started.
SCARCITY OF GOOD EDITORS, NEWS EDITORS and not reporters. Because of ill informed,never read, mediocre editors & news editors reporters are fooling them by filling cooked up, recycled, false, far from truth, imaginary stories…
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And all this when the rules regarding village, taluk and jilla panchayats very clearly states that political parties have no role to play in the elections!
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CPI(M) creates history in Bagepalli
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has come to power in a taluk panchayat by winning the Bagepalli Taluk Panchayat in Chickballapur district.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article1033714.ece
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@ deepak, once again read the headings..
who told u DH-PV is known for its anti-BJP line
again read their heading
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Looks like the PV headline is Pro JD(S) than anything
else.
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POLItical man, thanks for that in-depth analysis :)
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@POLItical man That was a very good analysis. The surprise
was that the voting patterns largely resembled the last election
results. One would have expected anti-incumbency and the political
unstability to show their effect on the results. There is a clear
message to all the three parties here and it is hoped they take due
note of this.
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