Security personnel on election duty search a car at a check post on Hospet road in Bellary on Thursday, even as a new pre-poll survey suggests that the Congress, despite all its troubles, continues to maintain a healthy lead over the BJP in the assembly elections due in the “gateway to the south” next week.
The survey, conducted by the centre for study of developing societies (CSDS), for CNN-IBN and The Week, shows that the Congress could end up with at least 117 seats in a house of 224. Like other polls before this one, BJP comes second with 59 seats, JD(S) third at 44. KJP and others are also-rans.
Former chief minsiter H.D. Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) is the most preferred CM candidate, with 18 per cent people voting in favour of him. Ex-BJP strongman B.S. Yediyurappa is the second choice for CM (10%), followed by Congress leader Siddaramaiah (9%), S.M. Krishna (8%), and Jagadish Shettar (6%).
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THE POLLS SO FAR
CSDS-CNN-IBN, The Week (April): Congress 117-129, BJP 39-49, JD(S) 33-44
Suvarna News-Cfore (April): Congress 105-122 out of 224; BJP 55-70; JD(S) 30-45
Headlines Today-C-Voter (March): Congress 114-122, BJP 48-56, JD(S) 32-38, KJP 10-14
Tehelka-C-Voter (January): Congress 133, BJP 63, JD(S) 19, KJP 5
Suvarna News-CFore (Decamber 2012): Congress 113, BJP 58, JD(S) 31, KJP 14
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* Search engine optimisation techniques at work
Photograph: Karnataka Photo News
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2013 election coverage
When a wife-beater campaigns for the Congress
Rahul Gandhi fails five tests in Karnataka poll
They cry before the polls, so we can cry after
‘Diminishing returns from aggressive Hindutva’
Why is corruption not an issue in Karnataka?
POLL 2013: Can the Karnataka opinion polls go awry?
churumuri 
Firstly all polls are to be taken not with a pinch, but with a truckload of salt. It is well known that on the ground, the Congress is in a mess facing dissidence and rebel candidates with multiple claimants for CMship.
Congress had a golden opportunity to sweep the polls, but they have shot themselves in the foot. Now they will be lucky if they end up as single largest party.
It seems clear now that there will be some sort of coalition govt. in Karnataka unless something drastic happens within next 10 days.
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What the security forces are searching for is probably being ferried inside the goat. Otherwise, who ferries goat so fondly in their car?
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Deepak, when there is a strong anti incumbency wave goes against the ruling party, the principal beneficiary of this wave is the main opposition party. Individual rebels in certain constituencies hardly matter – they too will be swept by the tide of the pro congress wave
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HDK is most preferred CM, but his party will come third. Ha, ha, ha…. What a bogus kind of survey and analysis!
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@ Shrinivas, Don’t you know the difference between a sheep and a goat!
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The Photo is of Mr.Mullah driving Mrs. Mullah to the venue.
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The opposition gets the advantage of anti incumbency only when it presents a desrerving option. The poor folks of Karnataka are stick between piranha and leeches. The only option is to create a coalition assembly where no one set of parasites have too much power.
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THese polls can go horribly wrong. Case in pont Guj 2002 and 2007 elections.
Is that Goat ONE reason?
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If people are ready to believe paid surveys saying that Congress will get simple majority in karnataka, u should also accept that HDK has been the best CM karnataka has seen in the last two decades.
after listening to, and reading the views of some technocrats, IIM types, US returned accent types who are contesting elections, I would rather vote for a corrupt politician who does some work, has contact with the electorate and respect local language and traditions.
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Dr Ramesh: He wasn’t the best CM In last two decades. SM Krishna was.
However, he is clearly the most efficient administrator among the current lot (Siddharamaiah never being tried). People liked his non-arrogant approach to governance. He was done in by Deve Gowda’s arrogance. He is far more intelligent, pragmatic & efficient than Deve Gowda as he has none of the old man’s hangups.
Afterall managing multiple wives mellows a man I guess! ;)
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Abraham Lincoln said,
Its not the years in life both life in the years that counts,
HDK proved it right, just 20 months as CM, he did great work which none of previous CM’s could accomplish in past 20 years. His man management skills, his pro poor reforms, his conduct were exemplary.
No doubt he will be getting a second term as CM after may 8.
The very presence of HDK in vidhanasoudha will instill confidence in people of karnataka that they are in safe hands.
If there is any leader in karnataka who has the potential to become national level political force, it has to be HDK.
such is the potential.
Why the heck should kannadigas vote for Congress which encouraged food inflation and took away lifeline cauvery from kannadigas?.
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JDS is the bestpet now. It can only talk about local issues.
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Dr. Ramesh:
Don’t know what all he managed, but do know this – he managed to buy a 100acre plot of land in his wife’s name near Kannur gram panchayat limits (on Hennur-Bagalur road). That must be one of the small ‘achievements’ among his many other exploits.
Sad part of Karnataka – We have had a leader like Ramakrishna Hegde, who too was a philanderer but had some value based politics. He died without leaving massive assets to his family.
And now we have these modern ‘Bakasuras’, who not only have many post-offices, but also hundreds of acres of land around Bangalore. Party affiliations don’t matter. The reality is we are surrounded by scoundrels of highest order.
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Dr Ramesh,
Kaadhu nodona! namma haneyalli bardhirbekalla HDK CM antha! sigh!
I don’t know how you come up with these gems: “If there is any leader in karnataka who has the potential to become national level political force, it has to be HDK.
such is the potential.
Why the heck should kannadigas vote for Congress which encouraged food inflation and took away lifeline cauvery from kannadigas?.”
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DB,
When stalwarts like MMS,Manish Tewari, Azaruddin, Chiranjeevi are campaining in Karnataka for Congress, there is not need for NAMO to address more than 1 meeting…LOL
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I’d say Ramakrishna Hegde [who was tormented by Deve Gowda and the Janata Dal split by Gowdru to form the current family run JD(S) ] was arguably the best CM in recent decades, leaving aside great CMs of the past like Kengal Hanumantiah, Devaraj Urs, etc. RK Hegde’s cabinet had great Ministers like Abdul Nazir Sab [popularly known as `neer saab` for bringing water supply to water starved rural areas], MP Prakash, etc. The old Janata Dal was truly `secular` IMO unlike the fake secularism exhibited by likes of Congress and JD(S) just to win votes. Siddaramiah of Congress in Gulbarga at a Minority convention in January promised that the Ban on Cow Slaughter Bill modifications passed by BJP recently would be rolled back and Sachar Committee Report would be implemented if Congress is voted to power in the state ! Note that the original Ban on Cow Slaughter Bill was created by Congress when it was a more benign entity that cared for Hindus as much as it cared for other groups not the vicious, corrupt and power hungry mafia it has become today !
Deve Gowda and his clan do not inspire much confidence either. HDK with his two wives and HDK’s young son who broke up furniture in a restaurant off Church Street when they were not served at a late hour.
BhaJaPa also is an iffy choice IMO – if they could reign in the various hooligan outfits such as Rama Sene and Bajrang Dal they could have avoided much of the bad name they hv got for moral policing expecially in coastal region. Manohar Parrikar in Goa and Narendra Modi in Gujarat have kept these outfits in tight leash (one reason why VHP and sections of RSS dislike Modi!)
SM Krishna is over rated as a CM IMO – he is a suave and polished personality unlike JD(S) clan and BhaJaPa conservatives. Illegal mining was started under the regime of SMK even though his name does not figure in Justice Hegde’s report. He gave lots of land to S/w and other companies – perhaps reason why he seems to be popular with the Bangalore corporate elites one sees at TV discussions these days !
Dunno if Narendra Modi’s speeches are going to help at this stage even though his speech at Bangalore was a treat !
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Dr Ramesappa!
Yelli idheeyappa! Nimma Devegowda and Sons and Daughter_in-Laws and Grandons Party biddhu hodhrallappo! Ayyo ayyo!
Nimma Prince of Darkness HDK TV-alli kopadhindha kirichkolltha idhru!
Ayyo bedappa beda!
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More than anything else to me JDS getting 40 seats and made to sit in opposition is the best thing I can imagine!
Like the Gadarene swine, Gowdas have supported JDS and are now weeping bitterly for having to sit in the opposition benches! Dr. Ramesappa swalpa explain maadi Saar!
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My bet is on Kharge or DeeKayShi as CMs! Siddhu will need to wait as he is too independent (perceived) and will probably not make it!
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To keep 2nd wife, 1st wife was made MLA by the husband. Now that 1st wife has lost, next few months will be interesting on how the family drama unfolds …
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… probably musk tv can beam live pictures.
~*~
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Karnataka voters had a golden opportunity to mend the political mess in karnataka, but sadly they have wasted it.
Karnataka voter mindset has oscillated between stupidity and insanity.
They have rewarded a party which had failed as an opposition party for five years. They will repent.
JD S HAS GAINED— jd s has improved its tally to 40, it has gained in Bangalore from 1 to 3 , shimoga district it has got 3 seats with bjp none. These are definite positives.
YSV DATTA EMERGING VICTORIOUS is another plus.
This is the first media orchestrated , manipulated election karnataka has seen, with news channels, paper and survey companies in the paybook of Congress, systematically influencing voter mindset with faulty opinion polls from January.
Not a God sign for democracy.
JD S has seen far worser times, but has and will retain its importance.
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Dr Ramesappa!
Why is YSV Dutta’s victory such a big deal? What is the mystery here?
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Dr Ramesappa
Nothing will explain why your goddess Anithakka failed in Channapatna? Swalpa yochane maadi, Saar! NIMHANS kade hogi banni swalpa nimage artha agutthe!
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@drramesh Hmm news channel manipulation? What about News 24 which was confused whether they are supposed to beam 24 hrs news or 24 hrs HDK speeches?
If someone calls their defeat not a good sign of democracy, it is arrogant and insults the intelligence of voters. Defeat is over, all those who lost should accept and move on and see how they can do well next time, thats all!!
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Dr Ramesappa,
Read the writing on the wall; JDS has become a Jathi Dala Sangha! TMSM party–as in Tandhe-Makkalu-Soseyandiru-Mommakkalu party. Almost all JDS candidates are Gowdas! Immediate family members like evil genius, road-charandi builder Revanna get plum posts. So it is at best Jathi Dala Sangha. Q.E.D.
A couple of Rameshas and Dattas masquerading as ‘Dhronacharyas’ to ‘Kauravas’ of JDS is never going to work! Also, only you are suffering from delusions about the great CM-rule given by HDK during his 20-month tenure. Anitha K who declared 106 crores as her assets is also highly corrupt. How many housewives you know in Karnataka who have 100 crores in their bank accounts? Do you get it now? Swalpa yochane maadi Saar! Thanks.
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Doddi, u must be immediately quarantined for your and others safety.
it seems that u are bitten by Congress bug, its understandable that many weak minded people like u without any consistent thoughts and opinions always go after the winning horses.
Yaaro geltaare agate nimage devaru. Sotavanu devva.
I don’t belong to that dirty group, loss or victory, ideologies do not change, consistency of principle and thoughts is the basis of my life.
40 SEATS in an assembly of 223 is not a joke, they have polled 20% of popular vote, if any idiot believes that democracy has only place for ruling party, they must not be allowed to mingle with normal people.
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The information I got is,
Jd s has secured 2 nd place in 49 constituencies with less than 5000 votes, in that 16-18 constituencies vote difference is less than 1500 votes.
This shows that there is clearly a bright future ahead for JD S. Non -bjp, NON-congress , janata parivar votes still exist.
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Dr. Ramesh:
The best performance JD(S) has ever put up didn’t allow them to get more than 60seats till now.
BJP did loose this elections for various factors – corruption, bad governance, infighting and thuggish MLAs. But, their core voter base is intact, and it can easily gain 10-15% more votes if there is strong anti-incumbancy against Congress.
However, JD(S) normally appeals to only folks in south-Karnatka belt on the basis of the core Vokkaliga votes and being the credible opposition to congress (or BJP) in these areas.
Unless JD(S) can broadbase its appeal and is seen more than a ‘vokkaliga party’, it can’t get more than 50 assembly and 4 LS seats.
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Ramesappa, please ask your Datta to atleast now move his residence from his mother-in-law’s place he shoul be able to find his own housing now that he is an MLA, his brother-in-laws will stop cursing him and shed the sobriquet ‘manay aliya’
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Vitlan,
Personal life of politicians —- I have no interest,
If u start talking about personal life of Congress and bjp politicians, it will be certified ADULTERY.
YSV stuck to an ideology, he never went party hopping, no matter what. U can’t tell the same about many politicians today.
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Dr. Ramesappa
Neenu budappa dhara ildhey bugari aadistheeya! Kandhini bidla ninna ideals anna! When I ask about corruption in JDS you run with your tail between legs! Sumney lotte losku antha maathadthiya! JDS tharadu rangu finish aayithu maga!
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Doddi,
Congress ,BJP corruption bagge maarhado dhairya torsu, aamele bere vishyakke baa,
Nimma Congress nalli yeshtu Jana leaders maaklige ticket kotru—– do u know? How can u tell jd s as a party of a family? Maathado munna yochane maadbeku.
If u change ur opinions as frequently as seasons change, u loose credibility, take a stand, stick to a stand, don’t be a fence sitter.
Adhikaaradalli bjp itthu—- bjp ge jai. Eega Congress bandhide——- Sonia madam, rahul annaiah ge jai
Naale innondu, naadiddu mattondu. Is this ur thinking?
Neene shaanya iddi antha tilibeda, ningintha buddhivantaru samaajadalli thumba iddhare.
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Dr Ramesappa!
Naanu yelru corruption open aagi helidheeni. I have spoken about BJP’s Ramdas, Yeddi, and others; I have trashed OddVani, Sonia G and Rahul; I have given a hiding to Dirty Devegowda and family! There is no hide and seek in my methodology. BTW I have no blind ideology. There are many corrupt in UPA and BJP. But you never seem to concede JDS First Family is highly corrupt! Just imagine in his 20-month rule Anitha K made 100 crore plus white money; so the black money in her own coffers would 5X that amount right? I am not going easy on Congress as it is a gone case party! Even then it was able to beat the BJP and JDS thanks to KJP. Siddu I am sure will make a fine CM as he is more able and mature; less grandstanding than your ‘Prince of Darkness’ HDK and infinitely more capable than HDK. My joy stems from the fact that Siddu can more than address the sleights he suffered under JDS leadership and that will be fun to watch!
BTW there are rumours of course Siddu is handling >2 mistresses! So there, are you happy now? Now JDS First Family will have to face the hungry Gowda tigers and come the next election it will get a thrashing! Dirty Devegowda has fooled farmers twice and even the farmers know it; they will be less forgiving next time! What sort of a venal ex-PM, moron will claim that now he will work toward getting a better deal for Karnataka w.r.t. if JDS is voted to power! This only means the bloody old coot was insincere and incapable of fighting for Karnataka all along and all these days while idiots like you and others of similar ilk were cheerleading him and his party?
UPA is highly corrupt with a figurehead PM who is hell bent on holding onto his seat. But somehow you were holding onto illusions that JDS is above all family patronage. You are a despicably sad sad man with no thinking ability. I have always smashed your pretensions on sloganeering as your ‘National Policy’ and the sarcasm eludes you because as I said earlier you just don’t have any common sense! JDS is a thande-makkala party and every child in Karnataka knows that and yet you go on like a zombie about its virtue. You should ask people where JDS stands.
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Toned Down Version!
Dr Ramesappa!
Naanu yelru corruption open aagi helidheeni. I have spoken about BJP’s Ramdas, Yeddi, and others; I have trashed OddVani, Sonia G and Rahul; I have given a hiding to Dirty Devegowda and family! There is no hide and seek in my methodology. BTW I have no blind ideology. There are many corrupt in UPA and BJP. But you never seem to concede JDS First Family is highly corrupt! I am not going easy on Congress as it is a gone case party! Even then it was able to beat the BJP and JDS thanks to KJP. Siddu I am sure will make a fine CM as he is more able and mature; less grandstanding than your ‘Prince of Darkness’ HDK and infinitely more capable than HDK. My joy stems from the fact that Siddu can more than address the sleights he suffered under JDS leadership and that will be fun to watch!
Now JDS First Family will have to face the hungry Gowda tigers and come the next election it will get a thrashing! Dirty Devegowda has fooled farmers twice and even the farmers know it; they will be less forgiving next time! What sort of an ex-PM will claim that now he will work toward getting a better deal for Karnataka w.r.t. Kaveri if JDS is voted to power! This only means the old coot was insincere and incapable of fighting for Karnataka all along and all these days people like you and others of similar ilk were cheerleading him and his party?
UPA is highly corrupt with a figurehead PM who is hell bent on holding onto his seat. But somehow you are still holding onto illusions that JDS is above all family patronage.
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DB, please don’t be too harsh on the dentist. Should he decide to stop posting, imagine the lack of entertainment on this blog!
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Modi was irrelevant in Karnataka.
Likely same situation in rest of India (besides Gujarat).
Cheddi commentors, you see any silver lining in this?
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Modi had child murderers like Kodnani in his cabinet for 10 years. Another man called Amit Shah who went to jail and is on bail has been given an important position in the central board of BJP. A Cong MLA called Vittal Radia who was caught gun totting in Gujarat was thrown out of the party – BJP grabbed him and gave him a ticket. Surely no party can be worse than that? Congrats to Siddaramiah and Sonia for keeping tainted politicians out of the cabinet. Unlike BJP which gave ministries to everybody in the Reddy family – and inspite of severe criminal charges against 12 ministers, BJP refused to sack them. This is the difference between sewage politics of BJP and clean politics of Congresss
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I think many Congress supporters In this forum are jumping in joy, they are on cloud nine.their prayers are answered, —
SIDDHU SIR has announced that PACKET SAARAAYI will make a comeback, so that people should daily drink cheap and safe liquor.
see the difference,
HDK— banned arrack, seeing the plight of rural women.
This is the difference between a pro people JD S party and so called national parties.
Warning—– kammi ratu antha sikkapatte kudidu tight aagbedi, safe aagi manege hogi.
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@simple
SG & her husband had a bunch of people kill almost three times more Sikhs than the deaths that happened in 2002 Gujarat Riots. Her husband, She & her party have safe guarded them from prosecution till date. They do every underhand things possible to safe guard the crooks, like in case of Quatrocchi.
All flimsy technical arguments fail when you consider the fact that in Gujarat Riot case very powerful people were punished, and no one powerful person has been punished in Sikh case that’s thrice as old and thrice as horrific.
Of all the post independent riots with significant deaths, only one has happened under BJP. Most have happened under Congress.
So, Stop glorifying the real ‘Maut ka saudagar’ party.
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Simple Sir, you make my effort to log on to Churumuri worthwhile!! After theunrealtimes.com, it is your comments which make me laugh out really loud. If not for anything, thanks for that.
Sir, just a few names of tainted ministers in your Sonia’s cabinet??? Sorry, cant name few… the entire cabinet and government is sucked up in corruption!!! Coming back to Karnataka, you call RV Deshpande clean???? Shyamnooru S clean??? Which side? What way???
Still laughing sir…
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@Simple Big LOL at clean politics of Congress!! I suppose Santosh Lad of Bellary mining is pristine clean. I also suppose Krishna Byregowda whose wife got a flat in exchange for a deal is also clean. If this is cleanliness, I am scared of what dirt is about.
And your alter ego Anonymous is praying and hoping beyond hope that Modi is irrelevant so the present lot of crooks can continue looting India, but thats not gonna happen. Time for the likes of AG and Simple to relish their last joy for its tragedy that awaits the Congis from now on.
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Siddu, HDK, Yeddy- all patriarchal , sanctimonious asses. The only donkeys worse than them are the ones who believe that their ass is better than the other asses.
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Simpleoo,
K J George was one of the 2 hooligan ministers under Bangarappa who unleashed attackes through their goons on Tamils during 1992 Cauvery Crisis…another one being S Ramesh (Kannada & Culture Minister ?). So there Ramesh is dead but unfortunately K J George is still alive and back in power…so expect more of the same…BTW here is a partial list of all the corrupt UPAministers and their achievements to make it to this partial list
1) Chidambaram P (Election Fraud/Using Police Force to kill innocent people in UP riots)
2) Abhishek Manu Singhvi (Getting Carnal pleasures in supreme court chambers from a aspiring SC lawyer on the promise that she will be made SC judge..I know you will say Abhishek Manu Singhvi is only spokesman..but how long before he gets inducted for his glorious service to the party)
3) A Raja – 2G scam
4) Suresh Kalmadi – Common Wealth Games
5) Tytler _ Buther of 1984 sikh genocide.
6) Ashwani Kumar – doctoring CBI reports
7) Pavan Kumar Bansal – Railway Scam
8) MAN MOHAN SINGH – Coal Gate scam
This is only a partial list of ministers..more to follow at an appropriate time of my choosing.
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Deepak, asha, anitha et. al.
Nelakke bidhru meese mannaaglilla? What are your next predictions for future elections? What will BJP win next?
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Gaby, India is a patriarchy. It will always be. So is every other country.
Who do you want as CM of Karnataka? Umashree?
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AG saar, forget BJP predictions concentrate on your Conress party, they are months away from a mega debacle in Delhi. The countdown has started. Their Bharat Nirman will be interpreted by public as Bharat Nirnaam as accordingly they will get results, So Congressmen loot as much as you can, D-day is close by.
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AG- please don’t try to be patronise me. Even if India and the rest of the world, as you claim are patriarchies, it doesn’t take away my right to call foul on the stupid practices of these patriarchies. It might make sense for you to take a rational view of things. You have on occasion showed signs of intelligent thinking.
—
AG- I agree that Modi is irrelevant to Karnataka. Would you agree that the Sphinx and the Clown Prince are equally redundant in Karnataka.
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Gaby, Pretty relevant actually, their party won.
Deepak, Wishing for some self-goals now, since great leader Modi turned out to be irrelevant. What is this D-day you are talking about – Some kind of RSS/VHP master plan?
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AG, so by your logic, Mom and baby are irrelevant in Gujarat, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Nagaland?????
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AG – Siddhu, anti-incumbency , political indifference won in Karnataka. Yes the congress won a simple majority of the seats on offer. That doesn’t make the Sphinx and the Clown Prince relevant in Karnataka. Unless of course you belong to that set which thinks the two ARE the party.
Why doesn’t it surprise me that you profess simplistic thoughts of patriarchy in politics and lack any psychological sophistication in your statements of electoral processes.
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