The benefit of the wisdom of extremely scientifically conducted opinion polls and exit polls has been cruelly deprived to the aam admi and aurat of Bharat. Therefore, “We, the People” have to now depend on opinion and exit polls done with a sample size of one to make up our minds on which way the poll winds are blowing.
As a member of a household that has dedicated itself to a free press and even freer opinion, Arun Nehru steps into the breach in the Deccan Chronicle. His back-of-the-wedding invitation card calculation after the first round of polling in the 15th general elections shows the BJP behind the Congress by 16 seats, but the BJP and allies ahead of the Congress and allies by four seats.
But the story as always in the asterisks. The single-asterisk wallahs can go either way and there are 13 of them; the double-asterisk wallahs will avoid the BJP come what may and there are six of them’ and the triple-asterisk wallahs will avoid the Congress and there are seven of them.
“I see the Congress emerging as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha polls with 155, seats followed by the BJP with 139 seats and the Left dropping to 36 seats in the final tally.
“My prediction is that the third or fourth fronts are negotiation structures for the regional parties for better “portfolios” after the elections. The Congress, even with a minimum of 150 seats must be the favorites to lead the coalition in the 50th Lok Sabha.”
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Meantime, in the absence of extremely scientifically conducted opinion polls and exit polls, the other option is to read the tea leaves or fall back on astrologers.
TV9 has done exactly the latter, and their prognosis for Karnataka: BJP 19, Congress 5, JDS 4.
The jyothishis say Congress stalwarts like Dharam Singh, Veerappa Moily, Mallikarjuna Kharge, Janardhan Poojary, Margaret Alva, H. Vishwanath, and Ambareesh will all bite the dust.
Graphic: courtesy Deccan Chronicle
Hat tip: D.P. Satish
Arun Nehru: part I, part II, part III, part IV, part V, part VI
churumuri 
I too predict that Congress’ polemicists will attribute the results to Hindutvafication of Karnataka by BJP.
Crass candidates like Moily, Alva … who don’t have “meter” to stand in their home constituencies do not matter!
Will our beloved PM, at least, vote in this election?
I could sympathise his fear of contesting elections, but this gentleman has not even voted in the last election!
A suggestion to UPA, appoint him only as an prospective advisor/consultant to the Ministry of Finance, that’s the best maryaade one could give to his education and skills.
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I am seeing better prospects for JDS than 4.Intially it was assumed that JDS will get Hassan,mandya,bangalore rural and tmkur.
But its giving equal competation to other parties like bangalore central,koppala,mysore,chitradurga,kolar,belgavi(a b patil) and even chikkaballapura.
And it has remote chances for it to win in haveri and chamarajnagar.
If luck goes slightly towards JDS then i can see that they can even reach magical 10(its magical for them).
if they do suceed, that will be the real surprise.
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Correction please, left will avoid BJP and JD-U will avoid congress.
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Hmm..Churumuri back to speculation..Some days back, Dint you say no exit polls here onwards :)
“The jyothishis say Congress stalwarts like Dharam Singh, Veerappa Moily, Mallikarjuna Kharge, Janardhan Poojary, Margaret Alva, H. Vishwanath, and Ambareesh will all bite the dust. ”
Without doubt, Cong high command wants to dump the ageing horses..High command ie, Madam,Rahulbaba n co know these old-timers have become a pain in “whatever” :) and want to use LS polls as a good excuse for their objective..I see that Ktka cong will be soon under siddaramiah,DKS n younger gen..that seems to be the one n only suggested solution for regaining the erstwhile Cong bastion !!
As for analysis, I am sure Manmohan singh wont become PM..Even if its a Cong-involved govt..
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Pras, well said. I have some more inputs..
These so-called Powerhungry but unpopular stalwarts have become worthless liabilities/antiques for Cong..Also, the absence of Oscar fernandes(udipi) and SM Krishna from the poll fray suggests that they count them both to be useful in the future and hi-command does nt want to take any chances with them ! All the same, Jyothishis seem to hav forgotten to add mia Jaffer shareef and Bangarappa to their list of possible losers..
Seeing the recent assembly election results and the pro-bjp trends in Ktka, madam n co. have decided to use this opportunity for long term goals. Only time will tell, if five years from now whether this move will bear fruits.
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People have this habit of throwing surprises.
No political pundit saw the downfall of Naidu in AP
No political pundit saw NTR getting a majority 25 years back.
No political pundit saw JDU and BJP being decimated in Bihar in 2004
No political pundit saw Cong coming back to power in 2008 assembly polls.
No political pundit saw NDA being crushed in 2004
Political pundits have been writing off LDF, at every election
No political pundit foresaw JDS getting 57 seats in 2004 Karnataka assembly polls.
No political pundit saw BSP getting a majority of its own in 2007 UP polls.
Why am i saying all this?
it is almost impossible to get into the minds of 750 million voters and make an estimate.
I think, even this time there will be surprises in store.
Things are going to shape up quite differently from what we have been told by ‘intelligent’ analysts .
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@Pras,Jaiho
Your comments seem to be to the point. One more possibility is that the cong hi command is giving the old warhorses one more chance…perform or perish.
Personally speaking, Cong in Karnataka badly needs some fresh faces. The likes of dharam singhs, Alvas, Poojarys and moilys have played a major role in demolishing a cong stronghold, bcos of their non-inspiring political histrionics over the years !
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congress+bjp is simple solution to this complex math problem
i guess this what people want then atleast we have only bidirectional pull else we have multidirectional pull which bad for the stability of the country
sane people of bjpandcongress come together pls for country sake
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